Design and Evaluation of an Orbital Debris Remediation System SYST 495 Technical Report Benjamin Noble Yahya Almanee Abdulelah Shakir Sungmin Park George Mason University Systems Engineering Senior Design Project, 2015-2016 Table of Contents 1 Introduction ........................................................................................................................... 5 2 Context Analysis ................................................................................................................... 7 2.1 Current Investments ..................................................................................................................7 2.2 Types of Orbits ...........................................................................................................................8 2.3 Orbital Debris Threat ................................................................................................................9 3 Stakeholder Analysis .......................................................................................................... 11 3.1 National Governments .............................................................................................................11 3.1.1 United States of America .......................................................................................................12 3.1.2 Europe ....................................................................................................................................12 3.1.3 Russia .....................................................................................................................................13 3.1.4 China ......................................................................................................................................13 3.2 Commercial Industry ...............................................................................................................14 3.2.1 Transport Companies .............................................................................................................14 3.2.2 System Manufacturers ............................................................................................................14 3.2.3 Insurance Companies .............................................................................................................14 3.3 Civil Organizations ...................................................................................................................14 3.3.1 Inter-Agency Space Debris Coordination Committee (IADC) ..............................................14 3.3.2 National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) ....................................................15 3.3.3 National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) ...............................................15 3.3.4 European Space Agency (ESA) .............................................................................................15 3.3.5 Russian Federal Space Agency ..............................................................................................15 3.3.6 China National Space Administration (CNSA) .....................................................................16 3.4 Stakeholder Interactions and Tensions ..................................................................................16 3.5 Process for Implementing ADR ..............................................................................................19 4 Problem Statement .............................................................................................................. 21 4.1 Overview ....................................................................................................................................21 4.2 Problem Analysis ......................................................................................................................21 4.3 Gap Analysis .............................................................................................................................21 4.4 Need Statement .........................................................................................................................22 1 5 Requirements ....................................................................................................................... 23 5.1 Scope and Assumptions ............................................................................................................23 5.2 Mission Requirements ..............................................................................................................23 5.3 Functional Requirements .........................................................................................................23 6 Concept of Operations ........................................................................................................ 24 6.1 Competing Approaches ............................................................................................................24 6.1.1 Active Debris Removal (ADR) ..............................................................................................24 6.1.2 Just-in-time Collision Avoidance (JCA) ................................................................................25 6.1.3 Property Rights ......................................................................................................................26 6.2 Design Alternatives ...................................................................................................................26 6.2.1 Launch and Rendezvous Designs ..........................................................................................27 6.2.2 Grapple Designs .....................................................................................................................28 6.2.3 De-tumble Designs .................................................................................................................30 6.2.4 De-orbit Designs ....................................................................................................................30 6.3 Method of Analysis ...................................................................................................................31 6.3.1 Launch and Rendezvous ........................................................................................................32 6.3.2 Grapple ...................................................................................................................................36 6.3.3 De-tumble ...............................................................................................................................40 6.3.4 De-orbit ..................................................................................................................................42 6.3.5 Political Viability ...................................................................................................................44 6.4 Utility Analysis ..........................................................................................................................49 6.4.1 Value Hierarchy .....................................................................................................................49 6.4.2 Attribute Descriptions ............................................................................................................50 6.4.3 Attributes and ADR Designs ..................................................................................................52 6.4.4 Weight Elicitation ..................................................................................................................52 6.4.5 Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) ........................................................................................54 7 Results .................................................................................................................................. 55 7.1 Launch and Rendezvous ..........................................................................................................55 7.2 Grapple ......................................................................................................................................55 7.3 De-orbit ......................................................................................................................................56 7.4 Overall Debris Remediation System .......................................................................................58 8 Business Case ....................................................................................................................... 59 2 8.1 Potential Market Size ...............................................................................................................59 8.2 Business Model .........................................................................................................................59 8.3 Sales Profile ...............................................................................................................................60 9 Project Plan ......................................................................................................................... 62 9.1 Statement of Work ...................................................................................................................62 9.1.1 Objective ................................................................................................................................62 9.1.2 Project Scope ..........................................................................................................................62