Report A The Baseline Report ON THE OUTCOMES AND INDICATORS FOR ARDS AND NORTH DOWN’s COMMUNITY PLAN December 2016 NB: The statistical baseline is constantly evolving and this report will be reviewed and updated as new data is made available. This baseline report provides a summary of some of the key statistics and quantitative evidence that has been gathered, and analysed, to support the development of the outcomes and indicators for the Big Plan for Ards and North Down The Big Plan for Ards and North Down Baseline Report What is a Community Plan? Ards and North Down’s Community Plan is a document setting out future aspirations for the people who live, work and visit in the Ards and North Down Area. We have called our Community Plan “The Big Plan for Ards and North Down”. This is because it is ambitious and takes a holistic approach to what we want to achieve for everyone in Ards and North Down by 2030. The Big Plan does not worry about which organisation is responsible for which public service, instead it concentrates on the result or outcome we want to achieve. Implementing The Big Plan will involve developing action plans that focus on how to improve the indicators and outcomes identified via the Big Conversation. The draft Big Plan can be viewed on the Council’s website. About this report Throughout the community planning process, we have collated and identified a wide range of evidence to help assess the issues that are most relevant to the people of Ards and North Down. We have gathered information from community planning partners, Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency (NISRA), central government departments and other stakeholder organisations. This report contains a summary of the key statistics and focuses on data that will help us to monitor the impact of the Big Plan and the work undertaken to achieve the outcomes. This report is part of a collection of other documents which have been written in support of the consultation document on the community plan. All reports are available as hard copies (using the contact details below) or can be downloaded from www.ardsandnorthdown.gov.uk/community-planning For more information on The Big Plan for Ards and North Down, please contact: Community Planning Ards and North Down Borough Council Town Hall The Castle Bangor BT20 4BT Or by e-mailing [email protected] Page 2 The Big Plan for Ards and North Down Baseline Report CONTENTS Part ONE: About our Borough Ards and North Down Pg. 7 Who are our citizens and where do they live? Pg. 8-10 An age profile of Ards and North Down’s residents Pg. 11-12 Our population in the past and future projections Pg. 13-14 Part TWO: About the Big Plan for Ards and North Down Outcomes, indicators and baseline report Pg. 15-16 Part THREE: Our statistical baseline Outcome 1 – Indicators and supporting data Pg. 17-24 Outcome 2 – Indicators and supporting data Pg. 25-27 Outcome 3 – Indicators and supporting data Pg. 28-34 Outcome 4 – Indicators and supporting data Pg. 35-42 Outcome 5 – Indicators and supporting data Pg. 43-50 Part FOUR: The next steps Limitations of the statistical baseline Pg. 51 Monitoring and reporting of progress Pg. 51 Page 3 The Big Plan for Ards and North Down Baseline Report Figures 1: Map of Ards and North Down Pg. 7 2: Population Pyramid for Ards and North Down by Sex (2014) Pg. 11 3: Population Pyramid for Ards and North Down by Sex (2039) Pg. 12 4: Ards and North Down Population Projections from 2014 to 2039 Pg. 14 5: Percentage Population Projections from 2014 to 2039 Pg. 14 6: Percentage gap between school leavers entitled to FSM and those not entitled achieving 5+ GCSEs A*-C 2012-2015 Pg. 17 7: Attendance rates by free school mean eligibility Pg. 18 8: Care leavers aged 16-18 highest qualification achieved by HSC Trust (2014/15) Pg. 18 9: Percentage of children living in absolute low income poverty after household costs Pg. 20 10: Rate of looked after children per 10,000 child population Pg. 20 11: Under 17 teenage birth rate per 1,000 females Pg. 22 12: Areas of Ards and North Down sorted by proportion of mothers who reported smoking during their pregnancy 2015/16 financial year Pg. 23 13: Percentage of further education enrolments Pg. 24 14: Preventable deaths: Ards and North Down Pg. 25 15: All recorded crime in Ards and North Down from 2001-2014 compared to the Northern Ireland average during that period Pg. 28 16: Rate per 1,000 population of young people aged 10-17 involved with Youth Justice Services by LGD from 2008 to 2014 Pg. 29 17: Road Traffic Collision Casualties by Severity of Injury by LGD from 2012 to 2015 Pg. 30 18: Percentage of people who feel safe in their community Pg. 33 19: Percentage of people who feel they have an influence over local decision making Pg. 34 20: VAT and PAYE registered businesses 2014 Pg. 35 21: Invest NI start-ups 2010-2014 Pg. 36 22: Gross value added 2013 Pg. 36 23: Economic activity rate 2009-2014 Pg. 37 24: Map of Expenditure (£m) on Overnight Trips by Local Government District, 2015 Pg. 38 25: Map of overnight trips by Local Government District 2015 Pg. 39 Page 4 The Big Plan for Ards and North Down Baseline Report 26: Tourism expenditure 2015 Pg. 40 27: North Down Museum visitor numbers 2011-2016 Pg. 40 28: Highest level of qualifications of those aged 16 and over in Ards and North Down and in Northern Ireland as a whole in 2011 Pg. 41 29: Qualification of working age population 2009-2014 Pg. 42 30: Social rented sector waiting lists by LGD 2014-15 Pg. 43 31: Households with home broadband access 2013-2015 Pg. 45 32: Superfast broadband coverage and average download speed in North Down Pg. 46 33: Superfast broadband coverage and average download speed in Strangford Pg. 47 35: Geographical spread of postcodes requiring improvements Pg. 48 35: Local Authority collected waste per household by LGD 2015-2016 Pg. 49 36: Waste sent to landfill 2015-2016 Pg. 50 37: Waste used for energy recovery 2015-2016 Pg. 50 Page 5 The Big Plan for Ards and North Down Baseline Report Tables 1: Census headcount on 27 March, 2011 by new LGD Pg. 8 2: Headcount from 2011 Census by District Electoral Area (DEA) Pg. 8 3: The 2011 census population count within settlement development Pg. 10 4: The Ards and North Down Borough Council Area - components of population change for mid-year estimates from 2001 to 2014 Pg. 13 5: The outcomes and proposed indicators of The Big Plan Pg. 15-16 6: Children Looked After per 10,000 Population Aged Under 18 Years at 31 March (2012 - 2016) Pg. 20 7: Five-year rolling average proportion of babies born at low birth weight by LGD from 2005-09 to 2009-13 Pg. 21 8: Under 17 teenage birth rate per 1,000 by LGD from 2008- 2012 Pg. 21 9: number of premature and preventable deaths between 2006-2012 and the gap between the most deprived and the borough overall Pg. 25 10: Admission rate for self-harm - gap between the most deprived areas in Ards and North Down and Northern Ireland as a whole Pg. 26 11: Standardised three-year rolling average hospital admission rates for alcohol related causes per 100,000 populations by LGD from 2006-08 to 2010-12 Pg. 26 12: The gap between the most deprived areas and Ards and North Down as a whole for Admissions for drug related mental health and behavioural disorders Pg. 26 13: The gap in life expectancy for male and females in the most deprived areas and the borough overall Pg. 27 14: Anti-social behaviour incidents recorded by LGD from 2008 to 2014 Pg. 29 15: Road Traffic Collision Casualties by Severity of Injury by LGD from 2012 to 2015 Pg. 31 16: Dwelling Fire Incidents per Local Government District from April 2012 to March 2015 Pg. 32 17: Ards and North Down district housing need summary by settlement 2016-2021 Pg. 44 Page 6 The Big Plan for Ards and North Down Baseline Report Part ONE: About our Borough Ards and North Down Ards and North Down Borough covers 228 square miles and is made up of seven District Electoral Areas: Holywood and Clandeboye, Bangor West, Bangor Central, Bangor East and Donaghadee, Ards Peninsula, Newtownards, and Comber. With a population of 157,000 in 2015, 8.6% of the Northern Ireland population live here. It comprises a unique mix of urban and rural communities. The largest towns, in order of size, are Bangor (60,000), Newtownards (28,000), Holywood, Comber and Donaghadee and each is in the north of the borough. The remainder of the population lives mainly in 19 smaller villages – Balloo, Ballygowan, Ballyhalbert, Ballywalter, Carrowdore, Conlig, Cloughey, Crawfordsburn, Greyabbey, Groomsport, Helens Bay, Killinchy, Kircubbin, Lisbane, Millisle, Portaferry, Portavogie, Seahill and Whiterock. 80% of residents live in the northern 25% of our borough meaning that rural isolation is experienced by some communities. Ards and North Down has a significant length of coastline centred around Strangford Lough and the outer Ards coastal route. These roads are important tourist routes but in recent years have been undermined by coastal erosion and severe weather events. Ards and North Down is perceived to be an affluent area, and for many people this is a reality.