$12 SPRING 2012 VOLUME 19, NUMBER 2 The Syrian Upheaval Teri Ignacio Alvarez-Ossorio A Struggling Civil Society Blumenfeld Yvette Talhamy Syria’s Islamists Rising Are Jihadists Crazy? Damla Aras Ankara’s Problem with Damascus Plus . Wahabuddin Ra’ees Is There Hope for Afghanistan? Theodore Reuben Ellis Daniel Doron The Market for Islamic Bonds Emanuele Ottolenghi The Middle East Gary Sick, Teflon Pundit Needs Free Markets Brendan Daly Regime Change in Iran? With reviews by Abrahms, Chougule, Ibrahim, Inbar, Plaut, Rosen, Schanzer, and Silinsky • Operationally: The Forum exerts an active in- fluence through its projects, including Campus Watch, Islamist Watch, the Legal Project, and the Forum Washington Project. www.MEForum.org • Philanthropically: The Forum distributes $2 million annually through its Education Fund, help- The Middle East Forum works to define and promote ing researchers, writers, investigators, and activists American interests in the Middle East and to protect the around the world. Constitutional order from Middle Eastern threats. The Forum holds that the United States has vital interests in the The MEF is a publicly supported, nonprofit organiza- region; in particular, it believes in strong ties with Israel and tion under section 501(c)(3) of the Internal Revenue Code. other democracies as they emerge. Contributions are tax deductible. For information about • Intellectually: Through the Middle East membership, please contact the Middle East Forum, 1500 Quarterly, staff writings, lectures, and conference Walnut Street, Suite 1050, Philadelphia, PA 19102, calls, the Forum provides context, insights, and E-mail: [email protected]; Tel.: (215) 546-5406; Fax: policy recommendations. (215) 546-5409. Board of Governors Irwin Hochberg, Executive Committee Chairman David P. Steinmann, Executive Committee Vice Chairman Albert J. Wood, Founding Chairman (1994-2006) Philadelphia Leonard A. Sylk Harley Lippman Cleveland Thomas H. Tropp Judith Friedman Rosen Robert Guzzardi David V. Wachs Scott S. Rosenblum Lawrence Gould Chairman Carroll A. Weinberg Henry Rosenfeld Chairman Edwin Seave Ele Wood Josiah Rotenberg David Shifrin Vice Chairman Joseph S. Zuritsky Melvin Salberg Vice Chairman Marilyn Stern Lawrence Shelley Joseph Shafran Vice Chairman New York Orna Shulman Program Chairman Jonathan Torop Philip Baskin Steven Levy Margo Marbut Train Secretary Jack R. Bershad Chairman Howard M. Casper Nina Rosenwald Patrick Clawson Vice Chairman Yehuda Baskin David E. Edman Boston Dennis Seaman Richard J. Fox Michael A. Weiss Stanley D. Ginsburg Ziad K. Abdelnour Joshua Katzen Stephen Weiss Edward M. Glickman Nira Abramowitz Chairman Lawrence B. Hollin Wilma G. Aeder Richard Calmas Ira M. Ingerman Norman S. Benzaquen Vice Chairman Arthur Karafin Patricia D. Cayne Samuel M. Lehrer Brian T. Decker Robert Abrams Daniel Pipes Murray S. Levin David Eisenberg Howard Bleich President Myrna Linsenberg Roger A. Gerber Susan Gardos Bleich Seymour G. Mandell Donald G. Ginsberg Benjamin Gordon Efraim Karsh Michael Mooreville Eugene M. Grant Brian Grodman Director Jeremy T. Rosenblum Martin Gross Lawrence K. Grodman Milton S. Schneider Leon Korngold Irene Pipes Amy Shargel William Seltzer David J. Kudish Mark H. Rubin Managing Director Murray H. Shusterman Joshua Landes George A. Violin Edward M. Snider Donald M. Landis Harry C. Wechsler Terry Steen Robert J. Levine David Wolf Ronni Gordon Stillman Peter B. Levy Maxine Wolf SPRING 2012 VOLUME 19, NUMBER 2 03 Teri Blumenfeld, Are Jihadists Crazy? Terrorists evade punishment by pleading insanity or mental incompetence 15 Daniel Doron, Free Markets Can Transform the Middle East Market economics could bring peace and stability to the region THE SYRIAN UPRISING 23 Ignacio Alvarez-Ossorio, Syria’s Struggling Civil Society A nascent opposition labors to emerge from the ongoing violence 33 Yvette Talhamy, The Muslim Brotherhood Reborn Are Islamists poised to dominate a post-Assad coalition? 41 Damla Aras, Turkish-Syrian Relations Go Downhill Ankara’s decade-long honeymoon with Damascus is over 51 Wahabuddin Ra’ees, Can Afghanistan Be Rescued? Afghans can resolve their differences if freed of outside interference 61 Theodore Reuben Ellis, The Piety Premium of Islamic Bonds Muslim investors pay a price for Shari‘a-compliant issues 73 Emanuele Ottolenghi, Gary Sick, Discredited but Honored Debunking a Reagan campaign deal for release of the Tehran hostages 81 DATELINE: Brendan Daly, Regime Change in Iran? Why the Islamic Republic’s days may be numbered REVIEWS 87 Brief Reviews Suicide terrorism … Gaza’s politics … Israeli militarism … Dhimmitude / 1 Editor Publisher and Review Editor Efraim Karsh Daniel Pipes Senior Editors Assistant Editor Patrick Clawson Hillel Zaremba Denis MacEoin Michael Rubin Editorial Assistant Managing Editor Alex Berman Judy Goodrobb Board of Editors Fouad Ajami James R. Russell Hoover Institution Harvard University David Cook Franck Salameh Rice University Boston College Martin Kramer Philip Carl Salzman Shalem College McGill University Timur Kuran Saliba Sarsar Duke University Monmouth University Habib C. Malik Robert B. Satloff Foundation for Human and Humanitarian Rights Washington Institute for Near East Policy in Lebanon Sabri Sayarø James Phillips Sabancø University The Heritage Foundation Kemal Silay Steven Plaut Indiana University University of Haifa Lee Smith Dennis Ross Foundation for Defense of Democracy Washington Institute for Near East Policy Steven L. Spiegel Barry Rubin University of California, Los Angeles Global Research in International Affairs Center Kenneth W. Stein Emory University 2 / MIDDLE EAST QUARTERLY SPRING 2012 Are Jihadists Crazy? by Teri Blumenfeld uslims who kill in the name of their religion frequently evade punishment in Western courts by pleading insanity or mental incompetence. Jurors, judges, Mand forensic psychiatrists are prone to accept the claim that some form of mental incapacity, not religious belief, accounts for “homegrown” jihadist terrorism in North America and Europe. This state of affairs results from the failure by prosecutors to frame acts of jihadist violence as expressions of faith. This failure to prosecute jihadists vigorously stems from several sources: a deep-rooted, Western reluctance to impugn religion; a cult of political correctness; and culturally naive wishful thinking. Viewing jihadists as crazy offers a comfortable conceit that ignores the stark reality that disaffected but sane Muslims are seduced by an ideology that espouses violent hatred of Western civilization. making directions are disseminated widely. Some LONE WOLF JIHADISTS go abroad for further instruction; others simply download a “how-to” manual. Jihadism is a supremacist ideology that Perhaps the most influential source of con- seeks to bring about the establishment of a glo- temporary jihadist indoctrination was the late bal Islamic state and the application of Islamic Anwar al-Awlaki, a U.S. citizen whose sermons law, the Shari‘a. It relies both on political efforts have been directly linked to more than a dozen and on acts of violence against “infidels.” Ac- terrorist plots.3 His message, which lives on in cording to terrorism specialist Steve Emerson’s cyberspace, is simple: review of Justice Department statistics,1 radical Islamists account for more than 80 percent of all We will implement the rule of Allah on earth terrorist convictions in the United States since by the tip of the sword. We need men who the 9/11 attacks.2 are willing to go all the way and not hold back In the past, most jihadist violence was car- anything from Allah. The religion of Allah ried out by organized terror networks. Today, cannot be given victory by part-time service. however, the most effective means of striking This is not a weekend religion. The contract the United States is to convert and radicalize is to sell our souls to Allah. The compensa- tion is paradise.4 U.S. citizens and residents into carrying out ter- rorist attacks on their own. So-called “lone wolf” While the lone wolf jihadist usually acts jihadists are typically radicalized through local alone from an operational standpoint, he is part Islamic institutions and the Internet (chat rooms, blogs, social networking sites, etc.) where reli- gious teaching, propaganda videos, and bomb- 1 “Statistics on Unsealed International Terrorism and Terrorism- Related Convictions,” U.S. Department of Justice, Washington, D.C., accessed Jan. 5, 2012. 2 “Islamists Dominate DOJ’s List of Terror Prosecutions,” Teri Blumenfeld is a researcher with the Middle Investigative Project News, Mar. 9, 2011. East Forum and with the Department of Justice 3 The New York Times, Oct. 10, 2011. 4 “In the Name of Allah,” TheReligionofPeace.com, accessed for terror fundraising trials. Jan. 5, 2012. Blumenfeld: Insanity Pleas by Jihadists / 3 of a well-defined, Internet-based pack whose kill- tary sites in northern Virginia.8 Army private ings are often meticulously premeditated. He may Nasser Abdo was in the final stages of prepar- plan the attacks on his own, but he does so with ing another attack at Fort Hood when he was the instruction, support, and direction of a arrested.9 Emerson Begolly was arrested for greater community of radicalized Islamists—and posting bomb-making instructions on the Inter- with the tacit approval of a significant percent- net and attacking federal agents while his house age of Muslims (well over ten percent by most was being searched.10 Khalid Aldawsari, a Saudi estimates)5 who admire Islamic terrorists.