WELCOME FROM CHAIR On behalf of the Organizing Committee, it is our great pleasure to welcome you to attend the 2016 International Conference on Probabilistic Methods Applied to Power Systems (PMAPS 2016), which is jointly organized by Tsinghua University and Chongqing University in China. The PMAPS 2016 will be held in Beijing, October 16-20, 2016. The theme of the PMAPS 2016 is “Shaping the Future of Probabilistic Applications”. 184 papers from 29 countries will be presented at the conference including 98 student papers. 131 reviewers participated in the paper review process. The experts in the PMAPS fields across the world will attend the conference. The plenary session, 4 panel and invited paper sessions and 41 regular paper sessions will provide a platform for the attendees to demonstrate their achievements and exchange their ideas. We will also organize a whole day’s tutorial on October 16, 2016, which will benefit those who want to acquire basic and advanced knowledge in power system reliability. We are pleased to see that a considerable number of students from different countries have expressed their significant interests in the PMAPS fields. To acknowledge and encourage the excellence of students in the areas of probabilistic methods applied to power systems, the “Best Student Paper Awards” are established at the 2016 PMAPS conference. The official title of the awards will be announced at the awarding ceremony. Your attendance will not only help you acquire useful information, meet old friends and establish new networks, but also greatly enhance the success of the conference. A technical tour to a big micro-grid project site and a Great Wall tour will give you long time lasting memories. We want to express our sincere thankfulness to the authors, paper reviewers, session chairs, organizing committee members and all volunteers for their contributions. Special thanks go to the board directors of the PMAPS International Society for their guidance. We believe that the PMAPS 2016 will be your unforgettable and pleasant experience. Wenyuan Li and Lin Cheng Co-chairs of the 2016 International Conference on Probabilistic Methods Applied to Power Systems September 8, 2016 I ACKNOWLEDGMENTS The organizing committee of the 2016 International Conference on Probabilistic Methods Applied to Power Systems (PMAPS 2016) would like to thank the following sponsors for their generous support: II Table of Contents WELCOME FROM CHAIR ....................................................................................... I ACKNOWLEDGMENTS ........................................................................................ II PMAPS COMMITTEES .......................................................................................... 1 PMPAS 2016 PAPER REVIEWERS .......................................................................... 3 ORGANIZERS .................................................................................................... 5 Tsinghua University............................................................................................. 5 Chongqing University .......................................................................................... 5 PMAPS HISTORY ................................................................................................ 7 PROGRAM AT A GLANCE .................................................................................... 10 GENERAL INFORMATION ................................................................................... 13 SOCIAL PROGRAM ............................................................................................ 20 TUTORIALS ..................................................................................................... 22 OPENING CEREMONY AND PLENARY SESSION ...................................................... 25 PANEL AND INVITED PAPER SESSIONS ............................................................... 28 REGULAR PAPER SESSIONS ............................................................................... 30 PAPER ABSTRACTS ........................................................................................... 51 III 2016 International Conference on Probabilistic Methods Applied to Power Systems (PMAPS 2016) PMAPS COMMITTEES Board of Directors Roy Billinton University of Saskatchewan, Canada Lalit Goel Nanyang Technological University, Singapore Alfredo Testa Seconda Università di Napoli, Italy Chris Dent Durham University, UK Wenyuan Li Chongqing University, China International Technical Advisory Committee (ITAC) Ronald Allan, UK Armando Leite de Silva, Brazil George Anders, Canada Wenyuan Li, Canada Sohrab Asgarpoor, USA Vladimiro Miranda, Portugal Bagen Bagen, Canada Aydogan Ozdemir, Turkey Lina Bertling Tjernberg, Sweden Marcus Schilling, Brazil Roy Billinton, Canada Bob Simpson, NZ Ramazan Caglar, Turkey Chanan Singh, USA Guido Carpinelli, Italy Alfredo Testa, Italy Lin Cheng, China Fred Turner, Canada Jaeseok Choi, Korea Peng Wang, Singapore Ali Chowdhury, USA Wijarn Wangdee, Canada John Endrenyi, Canada Wolfram Wellssow, Germany Mahmud Fotuhi-Firuzabad, Iran Kaigui Xie, China Lalit Goel, Singapore Chris Dent, UK Asim Haldar, Canada Juan Yu, China Ronald Herman, South Africa Jovica Milanovic, UK Agustín Irizarry Rivera, USA Carmen Borges, Brazil Gerd Kjolle, Norway Pierre Pinson, Denmark Samy Krishnasamy, Canada Chongqing Kang, China 1 2016 International Conference on Probabilistic Methods Applied to Power Systems (PMAPS 2016) Conference Co-Chairs Wenyuan Li, Chongqing University, China Lin Cheng, Tsinghua University, China Program Chair Kaigui Xie, Chongqing University, China Publication Chair Juan Yu, Chongqing University, China Organizing Committee Tsinghua University, China Chongqing University, China Lin Cheng Wenyuan Li Chongqing Kang Kaigui Xie Zongxiang Lu Jiping Lu Chen Shen Juan Yu Qixin Chen Bo Hu Ning Zhang Zhouyang Ren Haiwang Zhong Junjie Tang 2 2016 International Conference on Probabilistic Methods Applied to Power Systems (PMAPS 2016) PMPAS 2016 PAPER REVIEWERS We would like to sincerely thank the following PMAPS 2016 paper reviewers for their valuable time: Agustín Irizarry Rivera Hejun Yang Alfredo Testa Henry Louie Ali Chowdhury Huibin Sui Ali Nabavi Huifang Wang Amir Abiri-Jahromi Jaeseok Choi Andres Ramos James Gleeson Angela Russo Jian Chen Antonio Bracale Jian Wang Armando Leite da Silva Jianxue Wang Aydogan Ozdemir Jiping Lu Bagen Bagen Jizhe Dong Behzad Kazemtabrizi Jizhong Zhu Bo Hu Joao Catalao Bob Simpson John Moriarty Brandon Heath Juan Yu Bri Mathias Hodge Junjie Tang Carl Johan Wallnerström Kai Jiang Carmen Borges kaigui xie Cedomir Zeljkovic Katia C. Almeida Chen Shen Kehinde Awodele Chengfu Wang Laijun Chen Chongqing Kang Lalit Goel Chris Dent Li Zhang Dabo Zhang Lin Cheng Deping Ke Lina Bertling Tjernberg Elio Chiodo Lingfeng Wang Esteban Gil Longjun Wang Fang Shi Luis Olmos Fengji Luo Magnus Perninge Fred Turner Mahmud Fotuhi-Firuzabad Geert Deconinck Manjun Liu Gengfeng Li Manuel Matos George Anders Marcus Schilling George Gross Maria Da Guia Gerd Balzer Mario Alberto Rios Mesias Gerd Kjolle Mario Orlando Oliveira Guido Carpinelli Marko Cepin Guomin Luo Mathaios Panteli Haiwang Zhong Matthias Troffaes Hao Wu Mauro Rosa 3 2016 International Conference on Probabilistic Methods Applied to Power Systems (PMAPS 2016) Miao Fan Simon Tindemans Ming Yang Sohrab Asgarpoor Mingjun Liu Tapan K. Saha Mingqiang Wang Tek Tjing Lie Mohammad Iman Alizadeh Weixing Li Morteza Aien Wenhu Tang Niancheng Zhou Wenyuan Li Nikos Hatziargyriou Wijarn Wangdee Ning Xie Wolfram Wellssow Ning Zhang Xia Zhao Patrik Hilber Xiaodong Liang Peng Zhang Xiaoming Dong Pierluigi Caramia Xuemin Zhang Pierre Pinson Xufeng Xu Qianggang Wang Xun Liu Qinglong Liao Yannick Degeilh Qixin Chen Yezhou Wang Rajesh Karki Yi Ding Ramazan Caglar Ying He Ricardo Bessa Yong Wang Robin Preece Yuan Zhao Ron F Chu Yunfeng Wen Ronald Allan Zhenzhi Lin Ross Baldick Zhouyang Ren Ruben Romero Zongxiang Lu Shuwei Miao 4 2016 International Conference on Probabilistic Methods Applied to Power Systems (PMAPS 2016) ORGANIZERS Tsinghua University Tsinghua University was established in 1911. At present, the university has 20 schools and 54 departments with faculties in science, engineering, humanities, law, medicine, history, philosophy, economics, management, education and art. The University has now over 46,200 students, including 15,636 undergraduates, 18,661 post-graduates and 11,903 doctor candidates. As one of China’s most renowned universities, Tsinghua has become an important institution for fostering talent and scientific research, which ranks the 24th place in the QS World University Rankings of 2016. - Department of Electrical Engineering, Tsinghua University The Department of Electrical Engineering at Tsinghua University was founded in 1932. It currently has five research fields. They are power system and its automation, high voltage and insulation technology, electrical machinery and electric equipment, electrical theory and new technology, power electronics and power drives respectively. About 120 bachelors, 80 masters and 40 PhDs graduate from the department every year. The Electrical Engineering Discipline has been ranking the first place since the first evaluation of disciplines by China’s Ministry of Education. There are 128 full time staffs and 98 of them are faculties. The faculties include one academician of the Chinese Academy of Science and the foreign academician of the Royal Swedish Academy of Engineering Sciences, one academician