Climate change scepticism A study investigating the relationships between climate change scepticism, conservatism and Christianity Aron Vermaas SNR: 2034130 | ANR: 206848 December 11, 2020 Master Thesis Sociology Tilburg University Supervisor: Prof. dr. P. Achterberg Second Reader: Femke Roosma PhD Abstract Because of the devastating predicted implications of climate change and the complexity of the phenomenon, it is arguably the most challenging phenomenon in the current times. While there is almost complete scientific consensus about the causes of climate, there is much less consensus in the general public. Studies explained that conservative white males tend to be the most sceptical because they have strong system justification tendencies. Other studies showed that conservatism can be a result of Christianity, whilst Christianity itself also leads to scepticism about climate change. Christians tend to have a belief in Eschatology, a desire to dominate over nature and have a reduced trust in science. These two fields of research were not linked before, hence this study linked the two fields, by investigating the relationship between scepticism, Christianity and conservatism. Also, differences between religious cultures and denominations were studied. Analysis of data from the European Social Survey (ESS) showed that the relation between scepticism, Christianity and conservatism is less prominent as expected. Christianity in a broad European context does not lead to more scepticism and the same goes for conservatism. Although the relation between Christianity and scepticism does vary over countries. There are no significant differences between religious cultures. Potential avenues for future research and the societal relevance are discussed at the end of this Master thesis. 2 Table of contents Chapter 1: Introduction ......................................................................................................................................... 4 Chapter 2: Theoretical framework ..................................................................................................................... 10 2.1 The conservative white male effect ............................................................................................................... 10 2.2 The relationship between Christianity and climate change........................................................................ 14 2.2.1 Research throughout the years ................................................................................................................... 14 2.2.2 Epistemological conflict .............................................................................................................................. 16 2.2.3 End times theology....................................................................................................................................... 18 2.2.4 Fundamentalism .......................................................................................................................................... 18 2.2.5 Counterarguments ....................................................................................................................................... 19 2.2.6 The difference between Catholicism and Protestantism .......................................................................... 20 2.3 The Christianity-environment relationship on country level ..................................................................... 22 2.3.1 Highly Christian countries .......................................................................................................................... 23 2.3.2 Protestant culture ........................................................................................................................................ 24 2.4 Conceptual model ........................................................................................................................................... 25 Chapter 3: Methodology and operationalization ............................................................................................... 26 3.1 Data .................................................................................................................................................................. 26 3.1.2 Country-level information .......................................................................................................................... 26 3.2 Measurement and operationalization ........................................................................................................... 28 3.2.1 Dependent variable - climate change scepticism ...................................................................................... 28 3.2.2 Independent variables ................................................................................................................................. 32 3.3 Methods for data analysis .............................................................................................................................. 36 Chapter 4: Results ................................................................................................................................................ 37 4.1 Regression models........................................................................................................................................... 39 4.2 Multilevel analysis .......................................................................................................................................... 44 Chapter 5: Discussion and conclusion ................................................................................................................ 50 6. Sources ............................................................................................................................................................... 57 3 Chapter 1: Introduction Climate change refers to a range of global phenomena, like the increased worldwide temperature and related environmental problems, such as rising sea levels due to mass ice loss, a shift in flower and plant blooming and we are experiencing more extreme weather events. Climate change is mainly created by burning fossil fuels, which add heat-trapping gasses into the earth’s atmosphere. Therefore, it can be stated that climate change is caused by human activity, also called anthropogenic climate change (Reidmiller et al, 2017; Leiserowitz, 2007). Climate change threatens the earth’s capacity to sustain life and will have significant consequences for the global society (Xie et al., 2019). Doran and Zimmerman (2008) researched whether there is a scientific consensus on climate change and on the fact that climate change is caused by human activity. They found that 97% of climatologists who are actively publishing on climate change agree that climate change is happening and that it is caused by human activity. Additionally, Oreskes (2004) reviewed 928 papers about climate change and found, that none of the papers questioned that climate change is caused by anthropogenic or human-induced factors. Therefore, the debate on the authenticity of climate change and the role played by human activity is non-existent among those who understand the nuances and scientific basis of long-term climate processes. Despite the scientific consensus regarding climate change and its causes, there is no consensus in the general public. For example, 67% of US citizens believe that climate change is happening of which 53% believes that this is caused by human activity (Marlon et al, 2019). In Europe, people tend to believe in climate change more. On average 90% of Europeans believe climate change is happening and that it is caused by human activity. However, there is variation between European countries. For example, Russia (82.2%) and 4 Lithuania (88.7%) report somewhat lower beliefs compared to, for example, Spain (95.8%) and Sweden (96.8%) (Poortinga et al, 2018). Research from McCright & Dunlap (2011) shows that conservative white males are the most sceptical about climate change and report the lowest concern. Conservative white males tend to have hierarchical and individualistic values which leads them to become more sceptical about climate change (McCright & Dunlap, 2011; Krange et al., 2019). Furthermore, it seems reasonable to assume that religion plays a significant role in forming values that create such a conservative worldview. According to several researchers (Hirsch et al., 2013; Veldman et al, 2013; Guth et al., 1995), religious individuals tend to have more conservative values. Religion tends to shape cultural and ethical values and has, therefore, the ability to construct moral codes that embrace environmental attitudes (Veldman et al., 2013). Throughout history, religions successfully established and enforced norms and behaviour, such as bans on drinking or smoking and dress codes (Stark & Iannaccone, 1997). Religions affect societies at every level, from the individual to the national level (Veldman et al., 2013; Hagevi, 2014). In line with the previous arguments, Morrisson et al., (2015) established a ‘conservative Christianity effect’, in which the authors show that Christian conservatives are more sceptical about climate change. Therefore, there are reasons to assume that religion plays a significant role in the conservative white male effect, possibly creating a ‘Christian conservative white male effect’. This research will link two theoretical fields that have not been linked before, creating a new