Niagara Frontier Urban Area Freight Transportation Study Tables of Contents and Figures TABLE OF CONTENTS 1.0 Introduction and Purpose .......................................................................................................................................... 1 1.1 Study Concept ......................................................................................................................................................................... 1 2.0 Demographic and Economic Profile ........................................................................................................................ 2 2.1 Economic Profile .................................................................................................................................................................... 2 2.2 Economic Base Analysis ..................................................................................................................................................... 6 2.3 Buffalo-Niagara Economic Outlook ............................................................................................................................ 10 3.0 Freight Flows ................................................................................................................................................................ 12 3.1 Background ........................................................................................................................................................................... 12 3.2 Implications for Buffalo-Niagara Freight Traffic .................................................................................................. 14 3.3 Greater Buffalo-Niagara Freight Profile.................................................................................................................... 16 3.4 Cross-Border Flows and Traffic ................................................................................................................................... 31 4.0 Stakeholder Outreach ............................................................................................................................................... 36 4.1 Summary of Issues ............................................................................................................................................................. 36 4.2 Assessment of Buffalo-Niagara Freight Needs – Freight Forum .................................................................... 38 5.0 Performance Measures ............................................................................................................................................. 42 5.1 Environmental Performance Metrics......................................................................................................................... 42 5.2 Economic Development Performance Metrics ...................................................................................................... 43 6.0 Modal Assessment ...................................................................................................................................................... 46 6.1 Aviation ................................................................................................................................................................................... 46 6.2 Highway .................................................................................................................................................................................. 50 6.3 Rail ............................................................................................................................................................................................ 62 6.4 Maritime ................................................................................................................................................................................. 76 7.0 Intermodal Opportunities ....................................................................................................................................... 86 7.1 Logistics Complex ............................................................................................................................................................... 86 8.0 Marketing Regional Freight Assets....................................................................................................................... 97 8.1 Developing a Regional Freight Marketing Plan ..................................................................................................... 97 8.2 Greater Buffalo-Niagara Regional Marketing SWOT Analysis....................................................................... 102 8.3 Analysis of Economic Development Opportunities ........................................................................................... 104 8.4 Preliminary List of Proposed Marketing Initiatives .......................................................................................... 106 9.0 Project Recommendations .................................................................................................................................... 112 9.1 Projects by Mode, Priority and Timing ................................................................................................................... 112 10.0 Conclusions ............................................................................................................................................................... 115 i Niagara Frontier Urban Area Freight Transportation Study Tables of Contents and Figures TABLE OF FIGURES Figure 2- 1: Percentage of Change in Population, 2000-2006 ................................................................................................ 2 Figure 2- 2: Median Age of Population, 2005................................................................................................................................. 3 Figure 2- 3: Comparative Income Measures, 2005 ...................................................................................................................... 4 Figure 2- 4: Educational Attainment Levels, 2006 ...................................................................................................................... 4 Figure 2- 5: Employment Mix by Major Industry Sector, 2005 .............................................................................................. 5 Figure 2- 6: Change in Employment by Sector, 2000-2005 ..................................................................................................... 8 Figure 2- 7: Classification of Industry Performance ................................................................................................................... 8 Figure 2- 8: Population Forecast for the Buffalo-Niagara Region ...................................................................................... 10 Figure 2- 9: Niagara, ON – GTA Regional Population Growth .............................................................................................. 11 Figure 3- 1: Modern Supply Chain ................................................................................................................................................... 12 Figure 3- 2: U.S. Freight Demand (millions of ton-miles) ...................................................................................................... 13 Figure 3- 3: Modal Service versus Cost Continuum ................................................................................................................. 14 Figure 3- 4: Forecasted Truck Traffic for the Buffalo-Niagara Region ............................................................................ 17 Figure 3- 5: Forecasted Local Truck Traffic for the Buffalo-Niagara Region (tonnage) ........................................... 17 Figure 3- 6: Forecasted Inbound Truck Traffic for the Buffalo-Niagara Region (tonnage) .................................... 18 Figure 3- 7: Forecasted Inbound Truck Traffic to the Buffalo-Niagara Region by Commodity ............................ 18 Figure 3- 8: Forecasted Outbound Truck Traffic from the Buffalo-Niagara Region (tons) ..................................... 19 Figure 3- 9: Forecasted Outbound Truck Traffic from Buffalo-Niagara Region by Commodity ........................... 19 Figure 3- 10: Truck Traffic over the Buffalo-Niagara Region (tonnage) ......................................................................... 20 Figure 3- 11: Primary Commodities of Domestic Overhead Truck Traffic over Buffalo-Niagara Region ......... 20 Figure 3- 12: Regional Markets of Domestic Truck Traffic over the Buffalo-Niagara Region ............................... 21 Figure 3- 13: Commodities of Overhead Truck Traffic to Canada through the Buffalo-Niagara Region........... 22 Figure 3- 14: 2004 Waterborne Tonnage of the Buffalo-Niagara Region (thousands of tons) ............................. 23 Figure 3- 15: Forecasted Waterborne Tonnage of the Buffalo-Niagara Region (thousands of tons) ................. 24 Figure 3- 16: Domestic 2004 Rail Traffic in the Buffalo-Niagara Region........................................................................ 25 Figure 3- 17: Rail Line Densities in the Buffalo-Niagara Region ........................................................................................ 26 Figure 3- 18: Northeast Rail Densities ..........................................................................................................................................