Civil Aviation Regulatory Commission of Jordan Economic Impact Assessment of a Single Sky Agreement Report R01: Demand forecasts and high-level economic impact assessment - Final - Amman, July 01, 2009 International Air Transport Association 800 Place Victoria, B.P. 113 Montreal, Quebec Canada H4Z 1M1 Tel: +1 (514) 874 0202 Fax: +1 (514) 390 6707 www.iata.org Table of Contents Page Executive Summary ................................................................................................ 7 1. Introduction .......................................................................................... 10 2. Methodology ........................................................................................ 11 2.1 Limitations of this Study ............................................................................................... 11 3. Jordan – A Country Profile ................................................................... 12 3.1 Geographic Location and Major Cities ........................................................................ 12 3.2 History and Politics ...................................................................................................... 14 3.3 History and Politics ...................................................................................................... 14 3.4 Geography and Climate ............................................................................................... 15 3.5 Population .................................................................................................................... 16 3.5.1 Age Structure ............................................................................................................... 16 3.5.2 Geographic Population Distribution ............................................................................. 16 3.5.3 Past and Future Population Development ................................................................... 17 3.6 Economy ...................................................................................................................... 18 3.6.1 Structure of the Economy ............................................................................................ 20 3.6.2 Tourism ........................................................................................................................ 20 3.6.3 Income Development and Income Distribution ............................................................ 27 3.6.4 External trade .............................................................................................................. 27 3.6.5 Current Account Balance, Total External Debt and CPI .............................................. 31 3.6.6 Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) .................................................................................. 31 3.6.7 Medium-Term and Long-Term Outlook ....................................................................... 32 3.6.8 GDP forecast ............................................................................................................... 35 4. Structure and Present State of the Jordanian Aviation Sector ............. 36 4.1 Airports ......................................................................................................................... 36 4.1.1 Queen Alia International Airport (AMM) ....................................................................... 37 4.1.2 King Hussein International Airport (AQJ) ..................................................................... 45 4.1.3 Amman/Marka Civil Airport (ADJ) ................................................................................ 52 4.1.4 Airport Market Shares .................................................................................................. 58 4.1.5 Seasonal Patterns ....................................................................................................... 60 4.2 The airline market ........................................................................................................ 61 4.2.1 Royal Jordanian (RJ) ................................................................................................... 61 4.2.2 Royal Wings ................................................................................................................. 61 4.2.3 Royal Falcon ................................................................................................................ 62 4.2.4 Jordan Aviation ............................................................................................................ 62 4.2.5 Jordan International Air Cargo ..................................................................................... 62 4.2.6 Air Taxi Services .......................................................................................................... 62 CARC of Jordan – Demand forecasts and Page 2 high-level economic impact assessment 5. Passenger and Cargo Forecast ........................................................... 63 5.1 Phase I: Forecast Models ............................................................................................ 63 5.1.1 Data sources ................................................................................................................ 63 5.1.2 External Factors Analysis and Forecast Models ......................................................... 64 5.2 Phase II: Forecasts of Predictor Variables .................................................................. 66 5.3 Impact of the global financial/economic crisis ............................................................. 68 5.4 Effect of open skies policy on seats offered in other countries ................................... 70 5.5 Phase III: Forecast Scenarios...................................................................................... 73 5.5.1 Queen Alia International Airport (AMM) ....................................................................... 74 5.5.2 Amman/Marka Civil Airport (ADK) ............................................................................... 77 5.5.3 King Hussein International Airport (AQJ) ..................................................................... 80 6. Economic Impact ................................................................................. 83 6.1 Expenditures of foreign visitors ................................................................................... 83 6.2 Revenues through additional air cargo/mail ................................................................ 84 7. Summary and Conclusion.................................................................... 87 8. Bibliography ......................................................................................... 89 9. Annexes............................................................................................... 90 9.1 Monthly profile of commercial passenger volumes ..................................................... 90 9.2 Forecast tables for AMM .............................................................................................. 91 9.3 Forecast tables for ADJ ............................................................................................... 93 9.4 Forecast tables for AQJ ............................................................................................... 95 9.5 Forecast Summary ...................................................................................................... 97 CARC of Jordan – Demand forecasts and Page 3 high-level economic impact assessment List of Figures Page Figure 1: Jordan; Location and Major Cities ..................................................................................... 13 Figure 2: Governorates of Jordan ..................................................................................................... 14 Figure 3: Population development 1990-2019 .................................................................................. 18 Figure 4: Development of Jordan’s real GDP and Real GDP per capita, 1990-2007....................... 19 Figure 5: Annual arrivals, 1990-2008 ................................................................................................ 21 Figure 6: Arrivals of non-Arab foreigners by mode of transport, 2008 .............................................. 23 Figure 7: Tourism revenues and expenditures, 2002-2008 (constant 2000 JD) .............................. 24 Figure 8: Tourism sites in Jordan ...................................................................................................... 25 Figure 9: Distribution of tourist visits to major attractions, 2008. ...................................................... 26 Figure 10: Distribution of tourist visits to major attractions, 2008. .................................................... 26 Figure 11: External trade statistics, 1977-2007 ................................................................................ 27 Figure 12: Structure of domestic exports by value, 2008 (preliminary) ............................................ 28 Figure 13: Structure of Imports by value, 2008 (preliminary) ............................................................ 29 Figure 14: Partners for domestic exports by value, 2008 (preliminary) ............................................ 30 Figure 15: Partners for domestic imports by value, 2008 (preliminary) ............................................ 30 Figure 16: Historical development of current account balance ........................................................