Burkina Faso Burkina Faso Burkina Faso Public Disclosure Authorized Poverty, Vulnerability, and Income Source Poverty, Vulnerability, and Income Source Vulnerability, Poverty, June 2016 Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized 16130_Burkina_Faso_Report_CVR.indd 3 7/14/17 12:49 PM Burkina Faso Poverty, Vulnerability, and Income Source June 2016 Poverty Global Practice Africa Region Report No. 115122 Document of the World Bank For Official Use Only 16130_Burkina_Faso_Report.indd 1 7/14/17 12:05 PM © 2017 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank 1818 H Street NW Washington DC 20433 Telephone: 202-473-1000 Internet: www.worldbank.org This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank with external contributions. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of The World Bank, its Board of Executive Directors, or the governments they represent. 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Cover photo: World Bank Cover design: Shepherd, Incorporated 16130_Burkina_Faso_Report.indd 2 7/14/17 12:05 PM Table of Contents Acknowledgments . vii Abbreviations and Acronyms . ix Executive Summary . xi 1. Country Context ................................................................1 2. Progress in Poverty Reduction in Burkina Faso ....................................3 2.1 Poverty Trends ..................................................................3 2.2 Poverty Profile and Determinants in 2014 ..........................................20 3. Food Insecurity in Burkina Faso .................................................27 3.1 Characteristics of Food Insecurity ................................................27 3.2 Food Insecurity and Vulnerability to Shocks. .36 4. Rural Income and Poverty ......................................................43 4.1 Profile of Rural Households ......................................................43 4.2 Stylized Facts on Labor Market and Income Source in Rural Areas ....................44 4.3 Agricultural Sector .............................................................50 4.4 Nonfarm Enterprise Income .....................................................56 4.5 Private Transfers ...............................................................58 5. Conclusions. .65 References ........................................................................67 Annex ............................................................................ 69 List of Tables 2.1 Poverty Indicators by Area of Residence ..............................................8 2.2 Actual and Alternative Poverty Lines .................................................9 2.3 Comparison of National Accounts and Household Survey Growth Rates .................11 2.4 Average GDP Growth Rates .......................................................13 2.5 Primary Employment by Year and Type of Industry ...................................16 2.6 Inequality Indicators by Area of Residence ...........................................16 2.7 GDP per Sector (2009–2014) and Projections (2015–2017) .............................18 2.8 Poverty Projections for 2016–2030 ..................................................19 2.9 Basic Poverty Indicators by Household Characteristic .................................22 2.10 Poverty Indicators Using Alternative Poverty Measures ................................24 3.1 Average Annual Cereals Production for the Last 20 Years ..............................29 3.2 Comparison of the Different Forms of Food Insecurity ................................32 3.3 Characteristics of Food Insecurity ..................................................35 4.1 Characteristics of Rural Households ................................................44 4.2 Total Household Income by Source and Welfare Quintile ..............................48 Table of Contents iii 16130_Burkina_Faso_Report.indd 3 7/14/17 12:05 PM 4.3 Distribution of Agricultural Production (by value) by Area of Residence and Type of Crop .................................................................51 4.4 Characteristics of Rural Agriculture by Welfare Quintile ...............................54 A1 Growth Inequality Decomposition ..................................................69 A2 Sectoral Decomposition of a Change in Poverty Head Count ...........................70 A3 Ranking of Regions Using the Poverty Head Count (from the least poor to the poorest region) ............................................................70 A4 Regression of the Logarithm of per Capita Consumption ..............................71 A5 Probit Model of FIES Food Insecurity ...............................................74 A6 Regression on Calories Consumption ...............................................76 A7 Regression on the Dynamic Food Insecurity .........................................78 A8 Regression on the Agricultural Productivity ..........................................80 A9 Regression on the Transfers ........................................................82 List of Figures 1.1 GDP per Capita in Selected African Countries in 2014 .................................2 2.1 Poverty Head Count and Number of Poor per Year and Area of Residence ................3 2.2 First-Order Dominance Curves by Survey Year ........................................4 2.3 Percentage of Population Benefiting from the Service ..................................5 2.4 Comparison between Burkina Faso and African Countries on Selected Indicators. .6 2.5 Resources to Eradicate Poverty, in Percentage of GDP ..................................8 2.6 Poverty Head Count by Area of Residence in Selected African Countries ..................9 2.7 Poverty Head Count and Number of Poor in Burkina Faso Using Alternative Poverty Lines ....................................................................10 2.8 Growth Incidence Curve 2003–2014—National ......................................11 2.9 Index of per Capita Expenditure and Share of Total Consumption. 12 2.10 Growth Poverty Elasticity Using Alternative Growth Measures .........................12 2.11 Agricultural Production for Main Crops (tons) 2003–2014 .............................14 2.12 Evolution of Some Weather Characteristics in Burkina Faso ............................14 2.13 Main Crop Yields (kilograms per hectare) 2003–2014 .................................15 2.14 Poverty Head Count, Percentage of the Population, and Percentage of Poor per Region ....21 2.15 Per Capita Consumption in 2014 by Percentile .......................................21 3.1 Geographic Map of Food Insecurity (FIES approach) ..................................28 3.2 Food Insecurity Incidence (FIES approach) by Household Characteristics. .28 3.3 Balance of International Cereals Transactions ........................................30 3.4 Annual Average Cereal Prices (CFAF per kilogram) in Some Main Cities in Burkina Faso ..................................................................31 3.5 Food Insecurity (calorie-intake approach) Incidence in Burkina by Region ...............32 3.6 Food Insecurity Incidence (calorie) by Some Socioeconomic and Demographic Characteristics ..................................................33 3.7 Annual per Capita Consumption of Food Items by Food Security Status (calorie) .........33 3.8 Incidence of Shocks by Place of Residence ...........................................37 3.9 Coping Strategies in Burkina Faso, 2014 .............................................41 4.1 Working Population (ages 15 and older) by Area of Residence ..........................45 4.2 Active Population 15 Years and Older, by Main Occupation and Welfare Quintile .........45 iv Table of Contents 16130_Burkina_Faso_Report.indd 4 7/14/17 12:05 PM 4.3 Active Population 15 Years and Older, by Secondary Employment and Welfare Quintile ....46 4.4 Active Population 15 Years and Older, by Main and Secondary Jobs and Welfare Quintile ...46 4.5 Percentage of Households by Type of Specialization and Welfare Quintilea ...............49 4.6 Percentage of Households by Type of Specialization by Regiona .........................49 4.7 Distribution of Rural Agricultural Production by Welfare Quintile and Type of Crop ......51 4.8 Distribution of Rural Agricultural Production by Region and Type of Crop ...............52 4.9 Kernel Density of Logarithm of Agricultural Production per Hectare (in CFAF/Ha) .......53 4.10 Share of Transfers by Their Origin ..................................................59 4.11 Share of Transfers (in the total) by Motive ...........................................60 4.12 Probability of Receiving Transfers and Annual Transfers by Log of Pre-Transfers per Capita Annual