ISSN 2334-3745 Volume XI, Issue 6 December 2017 PERSPECTIVES ON TERRORISM Volume 11, Issue 6 Table of Contents Welcome from the Editors..................................................................................................................................3 Articles Thirty Years after its Foundation - Where is al-Qaida Going?.............................................5 by Anne Stenersen Revisiting al-Qaida’s Foundation and Early History.............................................................17 by Leah Farrall Al-Qaida and the Pakistani Harakat Movement: Reflections and Questions about the Pre-2001 Period............................................................................................................38 by Don Rassler The Jihadi Social Movement (JSM): Between Factional Hegemonic Drive, National Realities, and Transnational Ambitions................................................................55 by Jerome Drevon Jihadi Competition and Political Preferences........................................................................63 by Tore Hammin The Spread of its Message: Studying the Prominence of al-Qaida Materials in UK Terrorism Investigations..................................................................................................89 by Donald Holbrook Islamic State and Technology – a Literature Review...........................................................101 by Truls Tønnessen Islamic State and Al-Nusra: Exploring Determinants of Chemical Weapons Usage Patterns............................................................................................................................................112 by Geoffrey Chapman Al-Qaida’s Complex Balancing Act in Syria............................................................................123 by Charles Lister Success for al-Qaida in Syria?....................................................................................................131 by Aymenn al-Tamimi The Strategic Logic of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham.........................................................................140 by Sam Heller Downplaying Jihad in Jordan’s Educational Curriculum, 2013-2017 ...........................154 by Kirk Sowell Al-Qaida in the Islamic Maghreb and the Dilemmas of Jihadi Loyalty..........................167 by Jean-Pierre Filiu Demystifying al-Qaida’s Impact in Nigeria Cases from Boko Haram’s Founding, Launch of Jihad and Suicide Bombings..................................................................................174 by Jacob Zenn Al-Qaida’s Strategy in Libya: Keep it Local, Stupid..............................................................191 by Rhiannon Smith and Jason Pack ISSN 2334-3745 i December 2017 PERSPECTIVES ON TERRORISM Volume 11, Issue 6 Bibliography Bibliography: Al-Qaeda and its Affiliated Organizations (Part 1)...................................201 by Judith Tinnes Recent Online Resources for the Analysis of Terrorism and Related Subjects...........246 by Berto Jongman About Perspectives on Terrorism............................................................................................271 ISSN 2334-3745 ii December 2017 PERSPECTIVES ON TERRORISM Volume 11, Issue 6 Welcome from the Editors This Special Issue of Perspectives on Terrorism is devoted to al-Qaida (AQ). It contains 15 articles on various aspects of al-Qaida and its affiliates, as well as an extensive bibliography on AQ. The articles are products of a conference held in Oslo on 4-5 September 2017. The conference was organised by the Norwegian Defence Research Establishment (FFI), in cooperation with the Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs. It brought together leading specialists on al-Qaida and the Middle East, along with senior policymakers and government analysts from Norway and other countries. The rationale behind organising this conference – and for reproducing the proceedings in this Special Issue – was the feeling that there is a certain lack of knowledge of how al-Qaida has evolved, especially since Osama bin Laden’s death in 2011, the ‘Arab Spring’, and the rise of the Islamic State (IS). In recent years, most of the world’s attention has been on IS, while al-Qaida has seemingly disappeared from the radar. However, since IS experienced serious setbacks on the battlefield in 2017, the question asked by many today is whether al-Qaida will take its place on the world stage in one form or another. An additional motivation for having an al-Qaida conference in 2017 was to mark the fact that it is now thirty years since al-Qaida was established – counting from the year 1987, when Osama bin Laden set up a training camp for Arabs in Afghanistan which later became known as al-Qa’ida (“the Base”). FFI thought it was appropriate to gather al-Qaida experts from around the world, ‘old hands’ as well as promising newcomers to the field, to assess the current status of our knowledge on al-Qaida. This Special Issue is divided into two parts. Articles in the first part covers general questions related to al- Qaida’s history and its recent status, while the second part covers case studies of countries and regions where al-Qaida or its affiliates have been active. Anne Stenersen – the Guest Editor of this Special Issue of Perspectives on Terrorism – opens the series of articles by summarising what we know about al-Qaida today, but also suggests a framework for a better understanding of al-Qaida’s role in international jihadist terrorism. Leah Farrall revisits al-Qaida’s foundation and early history, arguing convincingly that al-Qaida was founded in 1987 and not in 1988 as commonly believed. Then, Don Rassler examines al-Qaida’s historical relationship to the Harakat movement in Pakistan, suggesting that we are only now beginning to understand the extent of these links. Jerome Drevon identifies al-Qaida’s place in the larger Jihadi Social Movement and analyses the recent competition between al-Qaida and Islamic State. Tore Hamming continues in the same track by providing a detailed analysis of how the intra-movement competition between AQ and IS has influenced their respective targeting preferences. Donald Holbrook explores the extent to which al-Qaida’s propaganda materials have featured in UK terrorism investigations. The next two articles address the topic of technology. Truls Tønnessen looks at how terrorist groups have used – but also, failed to use – new technologies in recent years while Geoffrey Chapman analyses why some jihadi groups in Syria, but not others, have used chemical weapons in the Syrian civil war. The remaining articles focus on country and regional issues. The first three texts in this section are dedicated to Syria, which continues to be the most important arena for jihad today. Charles Lister, Aymenn al-Tamimi and Sam Heller analyse al-Qaida’s main affiliate in Syria, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham - formerly known as Jabhat al-Nusra - discussing its shifting allegiances and its relationship to al-Qaida’s core. These three articles are followed by a case study on Jordan, where Kirk Sowell examines the government’s recent attempt to “de-jihadise” the country’s school curricula. The last three articles explore the conglomerate of jihadi groups in North and West Africa. Jean-Pierre Filiu’s focus is on al-Qaida in the Islamic Maghreb, while Jacob Zenn examines the historical influence of al-Qaida in the north of Nigeria. Finally, Rhiannon Smith and Jason Pack explain the complexities of the Libyan case. The final, AQ-related item in this journal issue is a bibliography on al-Qaida and its affiliates, compiled by ISSN 2334-3745 3 December 2017 PERSPECTIVES ON TERRORISM Volume 11, Issue 6 Judith Tinnes. This Special Issue ofPerspectives on Terrorism has been prepared by Guest Editor Dr. Anne Stenersen (FFI, Oslo), with the assistance of Associate Editor Dr. John Morrison and the Editor-in-Chief, Prof. Alex P. Schmid. ISSN 2334-3745 4 December 2017 PERSPECTIVES ON TERRORISM Volume 11, Issue 6 Thirty Years after its Foundation – Where is al-Qaida Going? by Anne Stenersen Abstract This article presents a framework for understanding al-Qaida, based on a new reading of its thirty-year history. Al-Qaida today is commonly labelled a ‘global insurgency’ or ‘global franchise.’ However, these labels are not sufficient if we want to understand what kind of threat al-Qaida poses to the West. Al-Qaida is better described as a revolutionary vanguard, engaged in a perpetual struggle to further its Salafi-jihadi ideology. Its strategy is flexible and opportunistic, and the organization uses a range of tools associated with both state and non-state actors. In the future al-Qaida is likely to treat international terrorist planning, and support to local insurgencies in the Muslim world, as two separate activities. International terrorism is currently not a prioritised strategy of al-Qaida, but it is likely to be so in the future, given that it manages to re-build its external operations capability. Keywords: Al-Qaida, terrorism, insurgency, strategy, external operations Introduction The status and strength of al-Qaida (AQ) are the subject of an ongoing debate. [1] There are two opposite and irreconcilable views in this debate: The first is that al-Qaida is strong and cannot be discounted. The other is that al-Qaida is in decline. [2] Those who suggest al-Qaida is strong, tend to emphasise the size and number of al-Qaida’s affiliates, especially in Syria, Yemen and Somalia; they also point to the rise of new leaders, in particular bin Laden’s son Hamza. [3] Those who suggest