Chapter 3: Natural environment and natural assets UK Climate Change Risk Assessment 2017: Evidence Report Chapter 3: Natural environment and natural assets Lead contributor: Iain Brown (University of York/Stockholm Environment Institute) Contributing authors: Richard Bardgett (University of Manchester), Pam Berry (University of Oxford), Ian Crute (Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board), James Morison (Forest Research), Mike Morecroft (Natural England), John Pinnegar (Centre for Environment, Fisheries and Aquaculture Science), Tim Reeder (Environment Agency), Kairsty Topp (Scotland’s Rural College) ASC contributor: David Thompson This report should be referenced as: Brown, I., Thompson, D., Bardgett, R., Berry, P., Crute, I., Morison, J., Morecroft, M., Pinnegar, J., Reeder, T., and Topp, K. (2016) UK Climate Change Risk Assessment Evidence Report: Chapter 3, Natural Environment and Natural Assets. Report prepared for the Adaptation Sub-Committee of the Committee on Climate Change, London. Implications of the vote to leave the European Union This chapter was written before the results of the EU Referendum were known. Leaving the European Union is unlikely to change the overall scale of current and future risks from climate change, but in some areas it may affect policies and programmes important to address climate- related vulnerabilities. If such policies and programmes are changed, it will be necessary for UK measures to achieve the same or improved outcomes to avoid an increase in risk. The Adaptation Sub-Committee will consider the impact of the EU Referendum and the Government’s response in its next statutory progress report on the UK National Adaptation Programme, to be published in June 2017. Chapter 3 – Natural environment and natural assets 1 UK Climate Change Risk Assessment 2017: Evidence Report Contents Key messages ............................................................................................................................................................... 5 3.1 Context .................................................................................................................................................................. 10 3.1.1 Purpose of chapter ......................................................................................................................................... 10 3.1.2 Approach to chapter ...................................................................................................................................... 10 3.1.3 Comparision with approach to CCRA1 .................................................................................................... 13 3.2 Terrestrial ecosystems ...................................................................................................................................... 13 3.2.1 Terrestrial species and habitats .................................................................................................................. 13 Context and policy .................................................................................................................................................... 14 Current risks and opportunities ........................................................................................................................... 16 Future risks and opportunities.............................................................................................................................. 21 Adaptation ................................................................................................................................................................... 25 3.2.2 Pollination ......................................................................................................................................................... 27 Context and policy .................................................................................................................................................... 27 Current risks and opportunities ........................................................................................................................... 28 Future risks and opportunities.............................................................................................................................. 29 Adaptation ................................................................................................................................................................... 30 3.3 Soils and land use ............................................................................................................................................... 31 3.3.1 Soils ...................................................................................................................................................................... 31 Context and policy .................................................................................................................................................... 31 Current risks and opportunities ........................................................................................................................... 33 Future risks and opportunities.............................................................................................................................. 37 Adaptation ................................................................................................................................................................... 39 3.3.2 Land availability and capability .................................................................................................................. 41 Context and policy .................................................................................................................................................... 41 Current risks and opportunities ........................................................................................................................... 43 Future risks and opportunities.............................................................................................................................. 44 Adaptation ................................................................................................................................................................... 50 3.3.3 Crop production .............................................................................................................................................. 51 Context and policy .................................................................................................................................................... 51 Current risks and opportunities ........................................................................................................................... 53 Future risks and opportunities.............................................................................................................................. 55 Adaptation ................................................................................................................................................................... 57 Chapter 3 – Natural environment and natural assets 2 UK Climate Change Risk Assessment 2017: Evidence Report 3.3.4 Livestock production ..................................................................................................................................... 61 Context and policy .................................................................................................................................................... 61 Current risks and opportunities ........................................................................................................................... 62 Future risks and opportunities.............................................................................................................................. 63 Adaptation ................................................................................................................................................................... 64 3.3.5 Trees, wood production and forestry services ...................................................................................... 65 Context and policy .................................................................................................................................................... 66 Current risks and opportunities ........................................................................................................................... 69 Future risks and opportunities.............................................................................................................................. 72 Adaptation ................................................................................................................................................................... 77 3.3.6 Wildfire ............................................................................................................................................................... 80 Context and policy .................................................................................................................................................... 80 Current risks and opportunities ........................................................................................................................... 80 Future risks and opportunities.............................................................................................................................