2010 Solar Technologies Market Report NOVEMBER 2011 ii 2010 Solar Technologies Market Report NOVEMBER 2011 iii iv Table of Contents 1 Installation Trends, Photovoltaic and Concentrating Solar Power ........................1 1.1 Global Installed PV Capacity..........................................................................................................1 1.1.1 Cumulative Installed PV Capacity Worldwide ...........................................................1 1.1.2 Growth in Cumulative and Annual Installed PV Capacity Worldwide .............2 1.1.3 Worldwide PV Installations by Interconnection Status and Application ........4 1.2 U.S. Installed PV Capacity ..............................................................................................................5 1.2.1 Cumulative U.S. Installed PV Capacity ..........................................................................5 1.2.2 U.S. PV Installations by Interconnection Status ........................................................6 1.2.3 U.S. PV Installations by Application and Sector ........................................................6 1.2.4 States with the Largest PV Markets ...............................................................................8 1.3 Global and U.S. Installed CSP Capacity ......................................................................................9 1.3.1 Cumulative Installed CSP Worldwide ..........................................................................9 1.3.2 Major Non-U.S. International Markets for CSP ......................................................11 1.3.3 U.S. Installed and Proposed CSP Capacity ..............................................................14 1.4 References ........................................................................................................................................18 2 Industry Trends, Photovoltaic and Concentrating Solar Power ...........................21 2.1 PV Production Trends ....................................................................................................................21 2.1.1 Global PV Production.......................................................................................................21 2.1.2 U.S. PV Production ............................................................................................................24 2.2 Global and U.S. PV Shipments and Revenue ........................................................................26 2.2.1 Global PV Shipments .......................................................................................................26 2.2.2 Global PV Cell/Module Revenue ................................................................................28 2.2.3 U.S. PV Shipments .............................................................................................................29 2.2.4 U.S. PV Cell/Module Revenue ......................................................................................31 2.2.5 U.S. PV Imports and Exports ..........................................................................................31 2.3 CSP Manufacturer and Shipment Trends ..............................................................................33 2.3.1 CSP Manufacturers ...........................................................................................................33 2.3.2 CSP Shipments ...................................................................................................................34 2.3.3 Material and Supply-Chain Issues ...............................................................................34 2.3.3.1 Material and Supply-Chain Issues ....................................................................34 2.3.3.2 Rare Metals Supply and Demand for PV .........................................................37 2.3.3.3 Glass Supply for PV ..................................................................................................38 2.3.3.4 Material and Water Constraints for CSP...........................................................38 2.3.3.5 Land and Transmission Constraints for Utility-Scale Solar .......................39 2.3.4 Solar Industry Employment Trends ..................................................................41 2.3.4.1 Types of Jobs in the PV and CSP Industries ..................................................44 2.3.4.2 Current and Projected Employment in the Industry, .................................45 Global and United States 2.3.4.3 Labor Intensity in the PV Industry, Global and United States ................45 2.3.4.4 Employment and Labor intensity in the United States .............................45 and Global CSP Industry 2.3.4.5 Quality Assurance and Certification for Solar PV Installation .................46 2.3.5 References ..............................................................................................................................47 v 3 Cost, Price, and Performance Trends .......................................................................51 3.1 Levelized Cost of Energy, PV, and CSP ....................................................................................51 3.2 Solar Resource and Capacity Factor, PV, and CSP ..............................................................52 3.2.1 Solar Resource for PV .......................................................................................................53 3.2.2 Solar Resource for CSP ...................................................................................................54 3.2.3 Capacity Factor, PV and CSP ..........................................................................................55 3.3 PV Cell, Module, and System Efficiency .................................................................................56 3.3.1 PV Cell Type and Efficiency ............................................................................................56 3.3.2 PV Module Efficiency ......................................................................................................58 3.3.3 PV System Efficiency and Derate Factor ...................................................................58 3.4 PV Module Reliability ...................................................................................................................58 3.5 PV Module Price Trends ................................................................................................................59 3.6 PV Installation Cost Trends ..........................................................................................................61 3.6.1 Behind-the-Meter PV ...........................................................................................................61 3.6.2 Utility-Sector PV.....................................................................................................................68 3.7 PV Operation and Maintenance ................................................................................................70 3.7.1 PV Operation and Maintenance, Not Including Inverter Replacement .......70 3.7.2 PV Inverter Replacement and Warranty Trends .....................................................73 3.8 CSP Installation and Operation and Maintenance Cost Trends ....................................74 3.9 CSP Technology Characteristics and System Performance ............................................75 3.9.1 Parabolic Trough Technology ......................................................................................75 3.9.2 Power Tower Technology ..............................................................................................75 3.9.3. Dish-Engine Technology ................................................................................................ 76 3.9.4 Linear Fresnel Reflector Technology ..........................................................................76 3.9.5 Storage ..................................................................................................................................76 3.9.6 Heat Transfer Fluid ............................................................................................................77 3.9.7 Water Use ............................................................................................................................77 3.9.8 Land Requirements ..........................................................................................................77 3.10 References ......................................................................................................................................79 4 Policy and Other Market Drivers .............................................................................81 4.1 Federal Policies and Incentives for PV and CSP ...................................................................81 4.1.1 Investment Tax Credit ......................................................................................................81 4.1.2 Renewable Energy Grants ..............................................................................................82 4.1.3 Manufacturing Tax Credit ...............................................................................................83 4.1.4 Modified cceleratedA Cost Recovery System and Bonus Depreciation .......83 4.1.5 Renewable Energy Loan Guarantee Program ........................................................84 4.1.6 Qualified Clean Energy Bonds, Clean Renewable Energy Bonds ....................86 and Build America Bonds 4.1.7 Energy