The Danish market for Rolling Stock SWERIG – Focus Denmark September 2014 By Lasse Toylsbjerg-Petersen PRIVATE AND CONFIDENTIAL AND PRIVATE Bombardier Inc. or its subsidiaries. All rights reserved. itsAllInc.subsidiaries.or Bombardier © Agenda 1 THE RAILWAY BUSINESS IS BOOMING IN DENMARK 2 THE CURRENT FLEET OF DSB 3 THE “TRAINFUND.DK” TIMETABLES 4 OTHER PASSENGER SERVICES PRIVATE AND CONFIDENTIAL AND PRIVATE 5 FREIGHT TRAFFIC Bombardier Inc. or its subsidiaries. All rights reserved. itsAllInc.subsidiaries.or Bombardier © 2 General market information - Denmark . Key data: Population: 5,5 Mio. Nominal GDP 2010: 217 B EUR (311 B USD) Effected of the general economical down turn but now recovering Railway size: 2667 km, 640 km electrified lines Passenger : ~7000 Mio of passenger-km Comprehensive electrification program on-going . Deregulation status: Partly delayed deregulation DSB has monopoly on all IC lines Arriva operates Regional lines on Jutland (with Alstom Lint) – procured by Trafikstyrelsen . High growth factors 2008 - 2030 CONFIDENTIAL AND PRIVATE . 100% growth in number of passengers expected Bombardier Inc. or its subsidiaries. All rights reserved. itsAllInc.subsidiaries.or Bombardier from 2008 to 2030 – more than 10% growth © achieved 2008-2013 . 70% growth in number of passengertrains expected 2008-2030 (10% growth 2008-2013) . 300% growth in Freight Traffic expected (40% Planned electrification achieved 2008-2013) 3 Passengertraffic is growing and growing Expected Increase of passengers from 2012 to 2022 and 2027 (mio) PRIVATE AND CONFIDENTIAL AND PRIVATE Bombardier Inc. or its subsidiaries. All rights reserved. itsAllInc.subsidiaries.or Bombardier © ”Whenever possible the growth must be handled by purchasing doubledecker trains instead of investing in new infrastructure” Banedanmark To handle the growth a stepwise approach was introduced in 2009 as a result of ”a green transport policy” Infrastructure Conceptual Rolling Stock Marketopening Possible strategy Timetable Strategy Maintenance Tendered traffic Trafikstyrelsen Banedanmark DSB would find New political New political was to lead the would lead the the optimal settlements – settlements work towards the work of making traintype(s) would then would optimal rail the optimal needed to run the aprove the determine lines PRIVATE AND CONFIDENTIAL AND PRIVATE infrastructure – timetable - using optimal timetable purchase of new to be tendered allowing shorter the optimal rail trains – with the in the future Bombardier Inc. or its subsidiaries. All rights reserved. itsAllInc.subsidiaries.or Bombardier traveltimes and infrastructure intention of © more capacity (to avoid further letting the infrastructure supplier do the needs) maintenance in Even though TS, BDK and DSB are seperated, the idea was to have the new build three steps coordinated – so later descisions of marketopenings could be workshops taken, without ”complicating” the proces * Conceptual thoughts from various meetings in the Danish Rail Sector Since then heavy investments in rail infrastructure has been agreed and financed Agreed and funded political settlements • ”The Signalling Programme” – ERTMS Level 2 on the entire State-owned network (2018-2022) • Fixed Link across Femern Belt (2021) including upgrade of the line Ringsted – Femern to 200 (250) km/h and double track • New line Copenhagen – Koege – Ringsted – 250 km/h (2018) • 200 km/h Ringsted – Odense and 160 km/h Hobro - Aalborg • Electrification to Esbjerg • Lightrail solutions Odder – Aarhus – Grenaa, Odense, Aalborg and ”Ring 3” in Copenhagen • Upgrade and electrification of the Line Koege – Naestved for 160 km/h (2018) • ”Togfonden.dk”: Electrification of the lines Roskilde – PRIVATE AND CONFIDENTIAL AND PRIVATE Kalundborg, Fredericia – Frederikshavn and Vejle – Struer • Upgrading from 120 km/h to 160 km/h of the lines rights reserved. itsAllInc.subsidiaries.or Bombardier © Holbaek – Kalundborg, Langaa – Struer, Vejle – Struer, Aalborg – Frederikshavn • New lines 250 (maybe 300) km/h Odense – Middelfart, across Vejle Fjord and Hovedgaard - Aarhus In total approx 130 B DKK (18 B EUR) are being invested in Danish Rail infrastructure Agenda 1 THE INFRASTRUCTURE PROJECTS IN DENMARK 2 THE CURRENT FLEET OF DSB 3 THE “TRAINFUND.DK” TIMETABLES 4 OTHER PASSENGER SERVICES PRIVATE AND CONFIDENTIAL AND PRIVATE 5 FREIGHT TRAFFIC Bombardier Inc. or its subsidiaries. All rights reserved. itsAllInc.subsidiaries.or Bombardier © 7 Bombardier has introduced new trains to Denmark since 1861 1861- 1935-1972 1932-1989 1964-2009 1988 - 2001- • The factory in . DSB introduces . DSB introduces . DSB introduces . The Scandia-built . Bombardier Randers ”Hvide the “Lyntog” and the new “standard the new “standard “Flexliner” train – acquires AD Mølle” opens the bridge across passenger cars” passenger cars” designed for Tranz (Scandia) in • The railway “Lillebælt” – a from Scandia: of UIC type “Y” smooth coupling 2001 between Aarhus traffic revolution built by Scandia & de-coupling is CONFIDENTIAL AND PRIVATE . 1932: Long . A total of 113 BT and Randers is born introduced with distance cars with . The Intercity built double opens. All the IC3 DMU . Carbodies and riveted carbody concept is decker coaches wagons are build rights reserved. itsAllInc.subsidiaries.or Bombardier interior work of introduced in . Later the IR4 are introduced via © at the ”Hvide . 1940: Local- the “Lyntog” are 1974 EMU and the leasing Mølle” service cars on made in Randers OTU train are companies from • “Hvide Mølle” wooden bogies . The 600+ cars are introduced 2002 changes the in service until . 1950: Long name to 2009 distance cars with “Scandia” in 1876 welded carbody Bombardier has been involved in almost every introduction 8 of new ”standard trains” in Denmark since 1861 And today – most of the DSB fleet is built by us MR ME locos IC3 IR4 195 DMUs delivered by 37 delivered from 96 DMUs delivered 44 EMUs delivered uerdingen/Scandia 1978- Henschel Kassel from Scandia 1989- from Scandia 1985 1980-1983 1998 1993-1997 ET (OTU) Doubledeckers ICE-TD S-train 111 EMUs (34 113 cars delivered via 20 DMUs (DSB has 136 EMUs delivered by belongs to DSB) leasing companies 13) delivered by Alstom/Siemens. CONFIDENTIAL AND PRIVATE delivered 2000 - 2002-2009 consortia Assembly of series 2012 Bombardier/Siemens production at BT, Randers Bombardier Inc. or its subsidiaries. All rights reserved. itsAllInc.subsidiaries.or Bombardier © EA locos Desiro IC2 & IC4 22 delivered (6 left) 20 DMUs delivered 105 DMUs delivered by Henschel/ Scandia by Siemens by Ansaldobreda Built by Bombardier 1984-1992 9 Built by others The Ansaldobreda DMU Most of the The short story Ansaldobreda • As the result the 1998 tender, trains can be DSB signed a contract with seen standing Ansaldobreda in 2000 with the at sidings all delivery of 83 4-car DMUs (IC4) over Denmark in 2003-2006 – an additional contract of 23 2-car DMU (IC2) was signed in 2002 with expected delivery 2004-2005 • DSB took delivery of the last IC4 in september 2013 and the last IC2 i October 2013 • Of the 82 delivered IC4 (one From the Medias ended in Libya as a gift from Italy to the former regime) 58 trains • 400 BC are working on improvement of the IC4 trains CONFIDENTIAL AND PRIVATE are normally used to run a 19 • There are no/limited milestones in sight – however DSB expect the day circulation with a poor mileage of IC4 to climb ”soon” rights reserved. itsAllInc.subsidiaries.or Bombardier performance • Public known problems with TCMS, brakes, couplings, doors, A/C, © noise and bogies • The trains represent a value in • Maximum speed currently reduced to 169 km/h, engines are ”tuned the accounts of 4,4 B DKK, but down” to avoid damaging the gearboxes so accelleration is poor depreciation have only started of • 7 IC4 DMUs are being used as spareparts – but are still listed in the the 19 ”trains in service” accounts, and ”can be activated when needed” • Almost every originally sparesparts supplier does not exist any longer, leaving spareparts as a highly critical issue 1 0 The lack of rolling stock leads to overcrowded trains PRIVATE AND CONFIDENTIAL AND PRIVATE Bombardier Inc. or its subsidiaries. All rights reserved. itsAllInc.subsidiaries.or Bombardier © Number of overcrowded trains in peakhours on various lines 11 …and if all Ansaldobreda trains are terminated, the DSB fleet will be missing 20.000 seats until 2027 Capacity need as ”seats of the rolling stock” 87.400 83.600 7.050 If the 74.300 Missing seats 17.997 Ansaldobreda IC2 identified 69.900 1.900 3.372 and IC4 are 59.000 17.997 terminated, DSB 2.255 17.997 IC2 og IC4 will be missing rolling stock with 45.168 80.350 a seat capacity of appox 20.000 Other trains 56.745 47.703 seats until the 48.531 “Train of the Future” is fully CONFIDENTIAL AND PRIVATE Train of the 20.435 implemented in Future rights reserved. itsAllInc.subsidiaries.or Bombardier 6.700 2027 © 2012 2017 2020 2022 2027 Note: These numbers are calculations of the volume of seats needed in the fleet to provide the needed capacity. Official numbers from TRM 2011 TS growth scenarios added on TRM number 12 After the Ansaldobreda story a new process for “trafical needs” has been made Quality check by consultants Ministry of Order DSB Check Tell DSB to transport to look at solution go/no go opportunities Ministry of Check Finance solution Forligskreds Agree on Accept CONFIDENTIAL AND PRIVATE need * solution Quality check by consultants rights reserved. itsAllInc.subsidiaries.or Bombardier © Recommend Run process DSB solution for purchase Some opportunities need to be approved again * The ”need” could be triggered by DSB, Trafikstyrelsen ,suppliers, lobbyists or the politicians themselves Agenda 1 THE INFRASTRUCTURE PROJECTS IN DENMARK 2 THE CURRENT FLEET OF DSB 3 THE “TRAINFUND.DK” TIMETABLES 4 OTHER PASSENGER SERVICES PRIVATE AND CONFIDENTIAL AND PRIVATE 5 FREIGHT TRAFFIC Bombardier Inc. or its subsidiaries. All rights reserved. itsAllInc.subsidiaries.or Bombardier © 14 To harvest the benefits of the new infratructure an ”optimized timetable” led to the ”One-Hour-Model” PRIVATE AND CONFIDENTIAL AND PRIVATE Bombardier Inc. or its subsidiaries.