A Service of Leibniz-Informationszentrum econstor Wirtschaft Leibniz Information Centre Make Your Publications Visible. zbw for Economics Moshiri, Saeed (Ed.); Lechtenböhmer, Stefan (Ed.) Research Report Sustainable energy strategy for Iran Wuppertal Spezial, No. 51 Provided in Cooperation with: Wuppertal Institute for Climate, Environment and Energy Suggested Citation: Moshiri, Saeed (Ed.); Lechtenböhmer, Stefan (Ed.) (2015) : Sustainable energy strategy for Iran, Wuppertal Spezial, No. 51, ISBN 978-3-929944-98-3, Wuppertal Institut für Klima, Umwelt, Energie, Wuppertal, http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:bsz:wup4-opus-61757 This Version is available at: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/142741 Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen: Terms of use: Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Documents in EconStor may be saved and copied for your Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden. personal and scholarly purposes. Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle You are not to copy documents for public or commercial Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich purposes, to exhibit the documents publicly, to make them machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen. publicly available on the internet, or to distribute or otherwise use the documents in public. Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, If the documents have been made available under an Open gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort Content Licence (especially Creative Commons Licences), you genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. may exercise further usage rights as specified in the indicated licence. http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/de www.econstor.eu Wuppertal Institute for Climate, Environment and Energy Saeed Moshiri Stefan Lechtenböhmer Sustainable Energy Strategy for Iran WUPPERTAL SPEZIAL 51 Publisher: Wuppertal Institute for Climate, Environment and Energy Döppersberg 19 42103 Wuppertal Germany www.wupperinst.org This work is published under a Creative Commons Attribution–NonCommercial–NoDerivatives License 3.0 Germany | http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/de German-Iranian Cooperation on Sustainable Energy A Short History of the Genesis The relationship between the Orient and the Occident in the 20th century was characterized by vested interests of the West in matters of security of energy supply. A respectful partnership in the field of energy research for the benefit of both sides was not an item on the agenda at this time, particularly not with regard to Iran. However, this one-dimensional geostrategic interest was not conductive to relieving stresses and conflicts, but instead reinforced them. Despite the hegemonic “friend or foe” paradigm within the political arena, at the beginning of 2002 the Wuppertal Institute for Climate, Environment and Energy and Osnabrück University started a civil-society-oriented initiative with the objective of developing “Sustainable Energy Policies for Iran” together with Iranian partners. This project has been designed to generate cooperation, it is based on a win-win strategy, and it sends a signal of international understanding by means of scientific collaboration. As these cooperative efforts have crystallized, it is clear they have been advantageous, instructive and productive for both sides. The book in hand is an important result of this collaboration. So its publication lends itself to taking stock of these twelve years of continued cooperation. This initiative set out to assemble acquired knowledge on strategies regarding sustainable energy from Germany as well as the rest of the world and make the most recent and up-to-date research on energy efficiency and renewable energies accessible to Iran and its scientific and political institutions. In the first years (2003-2005), the project focused on exchange in the form of topical discus sions on energy policies and the development of mutual understanding through several conferences and workshops. Prominent professionals and energy experts from universities, Iranian ministries and the Energy Committee of the Iranian Parliament, and the private sector all joined in. The research team, which included Iranian and German energy experts, published its frst report, “Investigation on Potentials, Barriers and Obstacles of Solar Thermal Energy Development in Iran” in 2005. This report documented the large economic potential of solar thermal power in Iran by using solar panels, which could also make an important contribution to the reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Cooperation between the Iranian and German research teams continued with the Iranian Energy Association (IEA) joining as a new partner in 2006. The IEA is a young NGO, with members across academia and energy experts who are involved in scientific energy studies and projects. The new research collaboration between Iranian and German research teams on energy studies led to several reports, papers, workshops and presentations on energy scenarios, energy efciency, renewable energies and energy education over the years. The first series of reports on energy scenarios were influential, because they included the first study to model Iranian energy use in all sectors and show future trends under various scenarios. The study results showed that Iran could save a significant amount of energy and reduce its GHG emissions under the efficiency and renewable scenarios over the next 25 years. The energy project also provided a wonderful opportunity to exchange know ledge among energy experts from different backgrounds. The present book is based on these earlier energy study projects in Iran, which started in 2006. The projects included energy scenario studies (2005-2030) and analyses of energy efficiency, renewable energy policies, energy price reforms and energy education programs in Iran and Germany. In this book, the energy scenarios, the energy efficiency analysis and information about renewable energies have all been updated and revised to demonstrate the most recent developments in the Iranian economy and the energy sector. The price reform section also reflects the recent changes after the 2010 energy removal subsidy program. We thank Professor Mohammad Hassan Panjeshahi (University of Tehran and former chairman of IEA, Tehran), Dr. Farideh Atabi (Science and Research Branch, Islamic Azad University, Iran), Dr. Saeed Moshiri (University of Allameh Tabataba’i, Iran, STM College, University of Saskatchewan, Canada), Professor Dr. Stefan Lechtenböhmer (Wuppertal Institute, Germany, IMES, Lund University, Sweden), Dieter Seifried (Büro Ö-quadrat, Germany), Dr. Nikolaus Supersberger (formerly Wuppertal Institute, Germany) and Magdolna Prantner (Wuppertal Institute, Germany) for their active contribution in all workshops and as authors of the main studies of the project. Quite certainly, the project was very fruitful with regard to international knowledge exchange and concerning its contribution to mutual understanding during a period of complicated geostrategic conditions. Wuppertal / Berlin, December 2015 Professor Dr. P. Hennicke (Former President of Wuppertal Institute for Climate, Environment and Energy, Germany) Professor Dr. M. Massarrat (Professor emeritus Osnabrück University, Germany) Saeed Moshiri Stefan Lechtenböhmer (eds) Sustainable Energy Strategy for Iran Co-Authors (in alphabetical order) · Farideh Atabi, Islamic Azad University, Iran · Katharina Knoop, Wuppertal Institute, Germany · Stefan Lechtenböhmer, Wuppertal Institute, Germany · Mohssen Massarrat, University of Osnabrück, Germany · Saeed Moshiri, University of Saskatchewan, Canada · Mohammad Hassan Panjeshahi, University of Tehran, Iran · Magdolna Prantner, Wuppertal Institute, Germany · Dieter Seifried, Büro Ö-quadrat, Germany · Nikolaus Supersberger, formerly Wuppertal Institute, Germany Research Team · Kioumars Heydari, University of Allameh Tabataba‘i, Iran · Esfandiar Jahangard, University of Allameh Tabataba‘i, Iran · Dietmar Schüwer, Wuppertal Institute, Germany Advisors · Peter Hennicke, Wuppertal Institute, Germany · Mohssen Massarrat, University of Osnabrück, Germany WUPPERTAL SPEZIAL 51 © 2015 Wuppertal Institute for Climate, Environment and Energy Published by Saeed Moshiri and Stefan Lechtenböhmer Proofreading and correction supported by: Teresa Gehrs und Matthew Rees (LinguaConnect) Design and setting: Stephan Preuß Grafik + Design Printed by: mc3 Druck und Medienproduktions GmbH Printed on 100% recycled paper “RecyStar Polar” If no other source is indicated, figures and tables in this book have been created by the authors. ISBN: 978-3-929944-98-3 Table of Contents 1 Introduction 7 2 Economy and Energy in Iran; an Overview 11 2.1 Macroeconomic Structure and Trends 11 2.2 Energy Sector 13 2.3 Energy Policies 17 2.3.1 Energy Subsidies 18 2.3.2 Oil Policy 20 2.3.3 Natural Gas Development 21 2.3.4 Electrification 21 2.3.5 Other Energy Policies 22 3 Historical Trends and Future Energy Consumption 23 3.1 Introduction 23 3.2 Methodology 24 3.3 BAU Scenario 26 3.3.1 Households 27 3.3.2 Manufacturing Industries 35 3.3.3 Power Generation Plants 39 3.3.4 Transportation 41 3.3.5 Other Sectors 45 3.3.6 Total Energy Demand 49 3.3.7 Environmental Impacts of the BAU Scenario 52 4 Alternative Scenarios 55 4.1 Scenario I: Efficiency 56 4.1.1 Households 56 4.1.2 Manufacturing Industries 59 4.1.3 Transportation 62 4.1.4 Other Sectors 63