London Borough of Bexley Strategic Housing Market Assessment Update 2020 London Borough of Bexley Final Report Updated November 2020 Main Contact: Dr Michael Bullock Email: [email protected] Telephone: 0800 612 9133 Website: www.arc4.co.uk 4 © 2020 arc4 Limited (Company No. 06205180) London Borough of Bexley SHMA Update – Final Report Page | 2 Table of Contents Executive Summary ..................................................................................................10 Introduction.......................................................................................................10 Housing market context....................................................................................10 Dwelling need, type and mix.............................................................................11 1. Introduction.....................................................................................................16 Background, aims and objectives.....................................................................16 Aim ...................................................................................................................16 Government policy and guidance .....................................................................17 Definitions.........................................................................................................19 Geography........................................................................................................20 Research methodology.....................................................................................23 Presentation of data .........................................................................................23 Report structure................................................................................................23 2. Policy and strategic review............................................................................25 National context................................................................................................25 Strategic context...............................................................................................25 Local context ....................................................................................................27 Concluding comments ......................................................................................28 3. Understanding housing market dynamics ...................................................29 House price trends ...........................................................................................29 Relative affordability .........................................................................................34 Household migration.........................................................................................35 Travel to work trends........................................................................................38 Past trends in housing delivery.........................................................................38 Concluding comments ......................................................................................56 4. Housing stock review.....................................................................................57 Estimates of current dwellings in terms of size, type, condition, tenure............57 Property condition.............................................................................................65 Property tenure.................................................................................................66 Owner-occupied sector.....................................................................................71 Private rented sector ........................................................................................73 Affordable sector ..............................................................................................77 Relative affordability of housing tenure options ................................................79 Concluding comments ......................................................................................86 5. Future housing need ......................................................................................87 Introduction.......................................................................................................87 Standard methodology for establishing a minimum housing need....................88 Establishing housing need using the standard methodology............................88 Conclusions on housing need...........................................................................95 November 2020 London Borough of Bexley SHMA Update – Final Report Page | 3 6. Affordable housing need ...............................................................................97 Introduction.......................................................................................................97 Affordable Housing Needs Assessment ...........................................................98 Tenure split.....................................................................................................102 Summary ........................................................................................................107 7. The needs of different groups .....................................................................109 Introduction.....................................................................................................109 The private rented sector................................................................................109 Self-build and custom housebuilding ..............................................................109 Family housing/households with children .......................................................110 Housing for older people ................................................................................114 Future need for specialist older person accommodation and residential care institutions.......................................................................................................115 Housing for people with disabilities and additional needs...............................130 Benefit claimants - disability living allowance (DLA) by disabling condition....134 A. People with disabilities and health needs ............................................137 B. Other people with support needs .........................................................142 Other stakeholder views on specialist housing in Bexley ...............................145 Summary of need of accommodation for people with additional needs..........147 Recommendations for optional accessibility and wheelchair standard housing .......................................................................................................................147 Summary ........................................................................................................152 8. Dwelling type and mix..................................................................................153 Introduction.....................................................................................................153 Demographic baseline scenario .....................................................................154 Aspiration scenario .........................................................................................155 Accept scenario ..............................................................................................156 Summary of scenarios....................................................................................157 Overall dwelling mix by tenure........................................................................158 Conclusions....................................................................................................160 9. Conclusion: policy and strategic issues ....................................................161 The Borough context ......................................................................................161 Future housing need and drivers for change ..................................................162 Dwelling type and mix.....................................................................................162 Meeting the needs of older people and those with disabilities........................163 Final comments ..............................................................................................163 Introduction to Technical Appendices ..................................................................164 Technical Appendix A: Research methodology ...................................................165 Overall approach ............................................................................................165 Baseline dwelling stock information and Household Survey sample errors....165 Technical Appendix B: Policy review ....................................................................168 November 2020 London Borough of Bexley SHMA Update – Final Report Page | 4 Introduction.....................................................................................................168 2010-2015 (Coalition Government) ................................................................168 2015-2016 (Conservative Government under David Cameron)......................170 Post EU-Referendum (Theresa May Administration)......................................173 Technical Appendix C: Housing need calculations .............................................178 Introduction.....................................................................................................178