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London Borough of Bexley Strategic Housing Market Assessment Update 2020

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London Borough of Bexley Strategic Housing Market Assessment Update 2020 London Borough of Bexley Strategic Housing Market Assessment Update 2020 London Borough of Bexley Final Report Updated November 2020 Main Contact: Dr Michael Bullock Email: [email protected] Telephone: 0800 612 9133 Website: www.arc4.co.uk 4 © 2020 arc4 Limited (Company No. 06205180) London Borough of Bexley SHMA Update – Final Report Page | 2 Table of Contents Executive Summary ..................................................................................................10 Introduction.......................................................................................................10 Housing market context....................................................................................10 Dwelling need, type and mix.............................................................................11 1. Introduction.....................................................................................................16 Background, aims and objectives.....................................................................16 Aim ...................................................................................................................16 Government policy and guidance .....................................................................17 Definitions.........................................................................................................19 Geography........................................................................................................20 Research methodology.....................................................................................23 Presentation of data .........................................................................................23 Report structure................................................................................................23 2. Policy and strategic review............................................................................25 National context................................................................................................25 Strategic context...............................................................................................25 Local context ....................................................................................................27 Concluding comments ......................................................................................28 3. Understanding housing market dynamics ...................................................29 House price trends ...........................................................................................29 Relative affordability .........................................................................................34 Household migration.........................................................................................35 Travel to work trends........................................................................................38 Past trends in housing delivery.........................................................................38 Concluding comments ......................................................................................56 4. Housing stock review.....................................................................................57 Estimates of current dwellings in terms of size, type, condition, tenure............57 Property condition.............................................................................................65 Property tenure.................................................................................................66 Owner-occupied sector.....................................................................................71 Private rented sector ........................................................................................73 Affordable sector ..............................................................................................77 Relative affordability of housing tenure options ................................................79 Concluding comments ......................................................................................86 5. Future housing need ......................................................................................87 Introduction.......................................................................................................87 Standard methodology for establishing a minimum housing need....................88 Establishing housing need using the standard methodology............................88 Conclusions on housing need...........................................................................95 November 2020 London Borough of Bexley SHMA Update – Final Report Page | 3 6. Affordable housing need ...............................................................................97 Introduction.......................................................................................................97 Affordable Housing Needs Assessment ...........................................................98 Tenure split.....................................................................................................102 Summary ........................................................................................................107 7. The needs of different groups .....................................................................109 Introduction.....................................................................................................109 The private rented sector................................................................................109 Self-build and custom housebuilding ..............................................................109 Family housing/households with children .......................................................110 Housing for older people ................................................................................114 Future need for specialist older person accommodation and residential care institutions.......................................................................................................115 Housing for people with disabilities and additional needs...............................130 Benefit claimants - disability living allowance (DLA) by disabling condition....134 A. People with disabilities and health needs ............................................137 B. Other people with support needs .........................................................142 Other stakeholder views on specialist housing in Bexley ...............................145 Summary of need of accommodation for people with additional needs..........147 Recommendations for optional accessibility and wheelchair standard housing .......................................................................................................................147 Summary ........................................................................................................152 8. Dwelling type and mix..................................................................................153 Introduction.....................................................................................................153 Demographic baseline scenario .....................................................................154 Aspiration scenario .........................................................................................155 Accept scenario ..............................................................................................156 Summary of scenarios....................................................................................157 Overall dwelling mix by tenure........................................................................158 Conclusions....................................................................................................160 9. Conclusion: policy and strategic issues ....................................................161 The Borough context ......................................................................................161 Future housing need and drivers for change ..................................................162 Dwelling type and mix.....................................................................................162 Meeting the needs of older people and those with disabilities........................163 Final comments ..............................................................................................163 Introduction to Technical Appendices ..................................................................164 Technical Appendix A: Research methodology ...................................................165 Overall approach ............................................................................................165 Baseline dwelling stock information and Household Survey sample errors....165 Technical Appendix B: Policy review ....................................................................168 November 2020 London Borough of Bexley SHMA Update – Final Report Page | 4 Introduction.....................................................................................................168 2010-2015 (Coalition Government) ................................................................168 2015-2016 (Conservative Government under David Cameron)......................170 Post EU-Referendum (Theresa May Administration)......................................173 Technical Appendix C: Housing need calculations .............................................178 Introduction.....................................................................................................178
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