EDUCATION, IMMIGRATION, AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT: EVIDENCE FROM 19TH AND 20TH CENTURY BAVARIA Inaugural-Dissertation zur Erlangung des Grades Doctor oeconomiae publicae (Dr. oec. publ.) an der Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München 2015 vorgelegt von Alexandra Semrad Referent: Prof. Davide Cantoni, Ph.D. Korreferent: Prof. Dr. Ludger Wößmann Promotionsabschlussberatung: 04. November 2015 Datum der mündlichen Prüfung: 29. Oktober 2015 Namen der Berichterstatter: Davide Cantoni, Ludger Wößmann, Amelie Wuppermann Acknowledgments First and foremost, I thank my Ph.D. advisor Davide Cantoni for his support, guidance, and advice throughout all stages of this dissertation. He was always available when I needed feedback or discussion of my work. I am truly grateful to him for this. I am also grateful to my second advisor Ludger Wößmann who not only provided valuable comments and suggestions to chapters 1 and 3 but also invited me to present my papers in his internal research seminar. Furthermore, I thank Amelie Wuppermann for supporting me as my third advisor. I further thank Jörg Baten and Jochen Streb for kindly sharing their data on German patents employed in chapter 1 and for inviting me to present in their research seminars at the University of Tübingen and the University of Mannheim, respectively. Moreover, I thank Mark Westcott for making the nice illustrations in the Appendix to chapter 1 and Sebastian Wichert for collaboration in data collection for chapter 3. In addition, I thank Daphne Alvarez, Nadjeschda Arnold, Benjamin Böninghausen, Florian Buck, Robert Grundke, Ulf Maier, and Nadine Schirmer, among many others, for making the past few years such a great time. Finally, I am deeply grateful to my parents and Harald. Without their constant support and encouragement, none of this would have been possible. Alexandra Semrad Contents Preface ..................................................................................................................................................... 1 1 Modern secondary education and economic performance: the introduction of the Gewerbeschule and Realschule in 19th century Bavaria ................................................................ 6 1.1 Introduction .............................................................................................................................. 6 1.2 Historical background ............................................................................................................ 10 1.2.1 Bavarian schooling system ........................................................................................ 10 1.2.2 Advocates of modern secondary education ............................................................... 16 1.2.3 Modern secondary graduates and the economy ........................................................ 17 1.3 Econometric specification and data ....................................................................................... 20 1.3.1 Database and main variables ..................................................................................... 21 1.3.2 Propensity score matching ........................................................................................ 24 1.4 Results .................................................................................................................................... 28 1.4.1 Economic impact of modern secondary education ................................................... 28 1.4.2 Economic impact based on propensity score matching ............................................ 30 1.5 Conclusion ............................................................................................................................. 33 Appendix 1 ....................................................................................................................................... 36 2 Educational expansion and social composition of secondary schools: evidence from Bavarian school registries 1810-90 ................................................................................................................. 42 2.1 Introduction ............................................................................................................................ 42 2.2 Historical background: Bavarian secondary education .......................................................... 45 2.3 Coding occupational data of annual school reports into a social class scheme ..................... 46 2.4 Extensive margin: educational expansion during the 19th century ......................................... 52 2.5 Compositional effect: secondary education and social class ................................................. 54 2.5.1 Social composition of secondary students ................................................................ 54 2.5.2 Composition of students relative to overall population ............................................ 58 2.5.3 Occupational composition of secondary students ..................................................... 61 I 2.6 Secondary education and social mobility ............................................................................... 65 2.7 Conclusion ............................................................................................................................. 67 Appendix 2 ....................................................................................................................................... 69 3 Immigration and educational spillovers: evidence from Sudeten German expellees in post- war Bavaria ...................................................................................................................................... 75 3.1 Introduction ............................................................................................................................ 75 3.2 Historical background ............................................................................................................ 79 3.2.1 A brief history of the Sudetenland ............................................................................ 79 3.2.2 Flight and expulsion 1945-50 .................................................................................... 81 3.3 Sudeten Germans in post-war Bavaria ................................................................................... 85 3.3.1 Descriptive statistics ................................................................................................. 85 3.3.2 Sudeten German influence on Bavarian secondary education .................................. 88 3.4 Data ........................................................................................................................................ 89 3.5 Empirical strategy .................................................................................................................. 92 3.5.1 Basic model ............................................................................................................... 93 3.5.2 Quantifying the spillover effect ................................................................................ 95 3.5.3 Differences-in-differences estimation ....................................................................... 97 3.5.4 Accounting for Sudeten German migration between 1950 and 1970 ....................... 99 3.6 Discussion of channels ......................................................................................................... 101 3.7 Conclusion ........................................................................................................................... 102 Appendix 3 ..................................................................................................................................... 104 Bibliography ....................................................................................................................................... 111 II List of tables 1.1 Curriculum of the Gewerbeschule (1833-64) ........................................................................... 12 1.2 Curriculum of the ‘Realienunterricht’ for students of the Gewerbeschule at the Gymnasium (1833-64) .................................................................................................................................. 12 1.3 Curriculum of the reformed Gewerbeschule (1864-76) ........................................................... 13 1.4 Curriculum of the Realschule (1877) ....................................................................................... 14 1.5 Curricula of the Lateinschule and Gymnasium (1874) ............................................................. 15 1.6 Intended careers of graduates at the Realschule Munich .......................................................... 18 1.7 Number of students at secondary schools ................................................................................. 19 1.8 Economic effect of the Gewerbeschule (introduction by 1835) ............................................... 29 1.9 Economic effect of the Realschule (introduction between 1877 and 1896) ............................. 30 1.10 Economic effect of the Gewerbeschule (introduction by 1835), restricted sample .................. 31 1.11 Economic effect of the Realschule (introduction between 1877 and 1896), restricted sample 32 1.12 Robustness check: economic effect of the Gewerbeschule (introduction by 1835) ................. 33 A1.1 Data description and source .....................................................................................................