REMKO VOOGD RE-ASSESSING THE DISSATISFIEDDISSATISFIED VOLATILE VOTER Political Support as Cause and Consequence of Electoral Volatility Online Appendices RE-ASSESSING THE DISSATISFIED VOLATILE VOTER Political Support as Cause and Consequence of Electoral Volatility Remko Voogd 1 Content of Appendices Appendices to Chapter 3 ................................................................................................................................................... 3 Appendix 3A Full Tables LISS Panel Data .................................................................................................................. 3 Appendix 3B Robustness Checks (LISS Panel Data)................................................................................................... 8 Appendix 3C Description of 1VOP Data ................................................................................................................... 16 Appendix 3D Tables 1VOP Data ............................................................................................................................... 22 Appendices to Chapter 4 ................................................................................................................................................. 25 Appendix 4A Validity of the reported and recalled vote choice questions (CSES data) ............................................ 25 Appendix 4B: Elections Included in the Analyses: Voting Patterns (Recall-Current) ............................................... 28 Appendix 4C Party System Changes (Only elections with actual changes are listed). .............................................. 29 Appendix 4D Parties Classified as Populist Parties (based on Van Kessel 2015) ...................................................... 30 Appendix 4E Full Tables and Figures ........................................................................................................................ 33 Appendix 4F Robustness Models: Base variables + Party ID + Employment Status. ............................................... 37 Appendix 4G Robustness Models: Models based on 27 elections from 13 countries ................................................ 4 1 Appendices to Chapter 5 ................................................................................................................................................. 45 Appendix 5A Descriptives of Voting Patterns and Correlations between the Support Items .................................... 45 Appendix 5B Tables & Figures Inter-Election Period ............................................................................................... 46 Appendix 5C Tables & Figures Campaign Period ..................................................................................................... 54 Appendix 5D Additional Robustness Checks ............................................................................................................ 62 Appendices to Chapter 6 ................................................................................................................................................. 63 Appendix 6A Countries & Elections .......................................................................................................................... 63 Appendix 6B Model checks with time control variables ............................................................................................ 65 Appendix 6C Data sources and coding decisions when coding ‘seat-share volatility’ .............................................. 66 Appendix 6D Analyses with Country Fixed Effects. Outcome = ∆ Trust in Parliament ........................................... 67 Appendix 6E Analyses Excluding Minority Governments. Outcome = ∆ Trust in Parliament ................................. 69 Appendix 6F The relation between the pre-electoral shifts in support and electoral volatility .................................. 71 Appendix 6G Analyses with subjective economic evaluations. Outcome = ∆Trust Parliament ................................ 72 Appendix 6H Analyses with ∆ Trust in Government as Outcome Variable .............................................................. 73 Appendix 6I Analyses with ∆ Trust in Parties as Outcome Variable ......................................................................... 78 Appendix 6J Analyses with ∆ Satisfaction with Democracy (SWD) as Outcome Variable ...................................... 83 2 Appendices to Chapter 3 Appendix 3A Full Tables LISS Panel Data Table A1 Overview of wave characteristics (Table 3.1 in Chapter 3) Period: Balkenende IV Government Wave I Wave II Wave III Date of survey wave December 2007 December 2008 December 2009 - Average Trust in Government (0-10) 5.38 5.82 5.45 - Average Trust in Parliament (0-10) 5.38 5.71 5.45 Percentage of the respondents who 25.3% 23.7% 25.2% substantively changed vote intention a Number of months over which 13b 12 12 volatility is calculated. Period: Rutte II Government Wave I Wave II Wave III Wave IV Date of survey wave December 2012 December 2013 December 2015 December 2016 - Average Trust in Government (0-10) 4.91 4.94 5.21 5.40 - Average Trust in Parliament (0-10) 5.09 5.06 5.29 5.43 Percentage of the respondents who 19.9% 20.1% 24.6% 10% substantively changed vote intention a Number of months over which 4c 12 24 12 volatility is calculated. a Only respondents with valid answers to the Trust in (Government & Parliament) items. b Switching is calculated using the actual vote at the November 2006 election and the survey wave in December 2007. c Switching is calculated using the actual vote at the Sept2012 election and the survey wave in Dec2012 /Jan2013. The Tables and Figures presented in the Appendices to chapter 3 are all based upon original analyses by the author(s). The analyses are based on data from the Longitudinal Internet Studies for the Social sciences (LISS) panel data project (https://www.lissdata.nl/Home) and data from the EenVandaag Opinion Panel (1VOP) (Data not publicly accessible). The Appendices to chapter three are also online accessible as a supplementary file to the published article: Voogd, R., Van der Meer, T.W.G. & Van der Brug, W. (2019). Political Trust as a Determinant of Volatile Vote Intentions: Separating Within- from Between-Persons Effects, International Journal of Public Opinion Research, Advance online publication. https://doi.org/10.1093/ijpor/edy029 3 Table A2 Trust in Parliament & Trust in Government: Direct effects (Table 2 in Chapter 3) Balkenende IV Rutte II (2006-2010) (2012-2017) Model I Model II Model I Model II Trust in Parliament_bw 0.819** 0.911** (0.020)≠ (0.016) ≠ Trust in Parliament_wi 0.957 0.968 (0.027)≠ (0.022) ≠ Trust in Government_bw 0.823** 0.890** (0.019) ≠ (0.015)≠ Trust in Government_wi 0.932** 0.941** (0.026) ≠ (0.020)≠ Vote2006 (0=Opposition,1=Gov. Party) 0.712** 0.728** (0.047) (0.049) Vote2012 (0=Opposition,1=Gov. Party) 2.167** 2.214** (0.125) (0.128) Months in between volatility waves 1.111 1.078 1.069** 1.069** (0.115) (0.113) (0.004) (0.004) Wave_wi 2.477** 2.413** 0.624** 0.628** (0.649) (0.634) (0.047) (0.047) Gender_bw (1=Male, 2=Female) 0.811** 0.807** 1.014 1.030 (0.056) (0.056) (0.060) (0.061) Age_bw 1.006 1.006* 1.004 1.004 (0.004)≠ (0.004) ≠ (0.003) (0.003) Age_wi 0.406** 0.409** 0.988 0.985 (0.106)≠ (0.107) ≠ (0.054) (0.053) Marital status (ref: Married) - Divorced_bw 1.096 1.083 1.047 1.050 (0.127) (0.126) (0.101) (0.101) - Divorced_wi 1.060 1.094 0.783 0.784 (0.509) (0.526) (0.252) (0.250) - Widow_bw 0.850 0.828 1.080 1.088 (0.157) (0.153) (0.130) (0.131) - Widow_wi 1.341 1.687 0.894 0.913 (0.887) (1.094) (0.355) (0.363) - Never been Married_bw 1.061 1.051 0.901 0.902 (0.104) (0.103) (0.076) (0.076) - Never been Married_wi 1.678 1.508 1.789* 1.724 (0.697) (0.610) (0.630) (0.604) Daily activity (ref: Employed) - Unemployed_bw 0.913 0.908 1.105 1.087 (0.094) (0.093) (0.102) (0.100) - Unemployed_wi 1.106 1.119 1.388* 1.387* (0.233) (0.234) (0.215) (0.213) - School/Student_bw 0.899 0.890 1.263 1.262 (0.198) (0.196) (0.303) (0.303) - School/Student_wi 0.687 0.714 0.675 0.645 (0.265) (0.274) (0.291) (0.274) - Retired_bw 1.017 1.026 1.219* 1.219* (0.124) (0.125) (0.123) (0.123) - Retired_wi 1.233 1.236 1.467* 1.469* (0.389) (0.389) (0.281) (0.279) Education (Ref: Middle Vocational (MBO)) - Primary Education_bw 0.875 0.890 0.883 0.871 (0.129) (0.131) (0.119)≠ (0.117)≠ 4 Table A2. Continued - Primary Education_wi 0.578 0.632 3.409* 3.335* (0.288) (0.308) (2.027)≠ (1.980)≠ - Intermediate Secondary (vmbo)_bw 0.946 0.954 1.022 1.028 (0.093) (0.093) (0.087) (0.087) - Intermediate Secondary (vmbo)_wi 0.734 0.667 2.068 1.939 (0.312) (0.282) (0.955) (0.885) - Higher Secondary (Havo/Vwo)_bw 0.990 0.988 0.912 0.915 (0.127) (0.126) (0.102)≠ (0.102)≠ - Higher Secondary (Havo/Vwo)_wi 0.842 0.849 4.896** 4.977** (0.440) (0.442) (2.746)≠ (2.778)≠ - Higher Vocational (HBO)_bw 0.901 0.902 0.918 0.932 (0.086) (0.086) (0.074) (0.075) - Higher Vocational (HBO)_wi 0.679 0.714 1.167 1.117 (0.296) (0.309) (0.537) (0.513) - University_bw 0.808 0.819 0.761** 0.778* (0.109) (0.111) (0.083) (0.084) - University_wi 1.177 1.249 1.542 1.490 (0.910) (0.961) (1.030) (0.993) Interested in Politics_bw 1.444** 1.431** 1.420** 1.406** (0.108)≠ (0.107) ≠ (0.087)≠ (0.085)≠ Interested in Politics_wi 0.954 0.959 1.127 1.125 (0.084)≠ (0.085) ≠ (0.088)≠ (0.088)≠ Party Member_bw (0=No, 1=Yes) 0.179** 0.180** 0.281** 0.280** (0.033)≠ (0.033) ≠ (0.049)≠ (0.049)≠ Party Member_wi (0=No, 1=Yes) 0.648 0.647 0.790 0.790 (0.192)≠