2016 Seattle Apartment Market Study KIRKLAND Redmond $265,233 28.6% $360 17.5% 3.8% 60BP 2015 AVG PRICE PER UNIT AVG PRICE PER SF Turn to CAP RATE LearnPAGE about your 13 Greenlake 2014 $306apartment’s value 4.4% Wallingƒord AVG PRICE PER SF CAP RATE Fremont QUEEN ANNE BELLT WN Bellevue downtown WEST SEATTLE SEATTLE NEIGHBORHOOD APARTMENT STUDY 2016 An Analysis of the 5 Unit to 50 Unit Urban Apartment Market Dylan Simon Jerrid Anderson Matt Laird Daryl Burton COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL SEATTLE MULTIFAMILY TEAM “ The market does not trade upon what everybody knows, but upon what those with the best information can foresee.” - William Hamilton Cover neighborhood logos designed by DEI Creative: www.deicreative.com 2016 Seattle Neighborhood Apartment Market Study Who We Are Colliers’ Seattle Multifamily Team is a team of dedicated, expert commercial real estate brokers working for apartment owners, developers and investors. Our goal is to help you maximize your return on investment, whether that is selling your apartment building faster and for more money or ensuring your purchase is a sound investment; we believe in building a long-term relationship, not just brokering a transaction. Our 2016 Seattle Neighborhood Apartment Market Study is a prime example of our approach to advising our clients. By giving our clients a better understanding of current and future market dynamics we believe our clients are empowered to make better decisions and achieve higher returns. This is Brokerage Evolved™. If you have a question about our market study or want us to help you understand how market dynamics are impacting your investments, just give us a call, we’d be happy to help. Dylan Simon Vice President Dylan Simon Jerrid Anderson Matt Laird Daryl Burton Ashley Woodliff Vice President Associate Associate Associate Project Coordinator O 206 624 7413 O 206 382 8554 O 206 624 7416 O 206 382 8553 O 206 223 1433 M 206 414 8575 M 206 499 8191 M 425 736 5516 M 602 920 7878 [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] WWW.DYLANSIMON.COM 1 2016 Seattle Neighborhood Apartment Market Study How We Work For You Our team is decidedly diverse, to meet the needs of our clients and provide Our process is unique to the industry and provides our clients the highest level of brokerage services. We take a unique approach to the the greatest advantage over the marketplace. It leverages market business, serving a complementary set of clients in the market in order expertise, use of technology and continuous thought leadership in to understand the market better than anyone – and delivering that market order to provide our clients an unmatched level of service. knowledge to our clients. Our Listings Reach the Most Investors :: We reach over 7,500 commercial real estate professionals on a weekly basis, ensuring complete market coverage. Our Marketing Turns Heads :: Our materials are often heralded as the absolute best in the business, getting more looks and more offers. PRIVATE INSTITUTIONAL CLIENTS CLIENTS Our Research & Investment Advice Creates Trust :: Investors care about what we say, leading to higher sales prices for our clients. 5 UNIT - 50 UNIT 50 UNIT - 500 UNIT TRANSACTIONS TRANSACTIONS Our unique process creates an advantage for LAND/DEVELOPMENT our clients. Allow us to TRANSACTIONS turn our expertise into your profit. 2 COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL SEATTLE 2016 Seattle Neighborhood Apartment Market Study Our Results The Proof is in Our Results. Our Process = Your Profit 2015 REPRESENTATIVE SALES FULLY MARKETED SALE OFF-MARKET TRANSACTIONS 48 Unit Sale 20 Unit Mixed Use Apartment Building URBANE REDMOND Represented Seller Sky Lanai Apartments $4,800,000 Sale Price 19% above market pricing 15 Unit Sale Represented Buyer Estelle Apartments $1,260,000 Sale Price NO COMMISSION PAID BY SELLER 6 Unit Sale Represented Buyer Arlene’s Apartments $9,500,000 Sales Price $1,500,000 Sale Price Sold for 50% over assessed value Record Setting $450,000 / Unit WWW.DYLANSIMON.COM 3 2016 Seattle Neighborhood Apartment Market Study 4 COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL SEATTLE 2015 YEAR 2015 YEAR IN REVIEW 2016 Seattle Neighborhood Apartment Market Study 2015 YEAR IN REVIEW WWW.DYLANSIMON.COM 5 2016 Seattle Neighborhood Apartment Market Study SEATTLE’S URBAN NEIGHBORHOODS The region’s urban-located, core neighborhoods remain the focal-point of BALLARD GREENLAKE UNIVERSITY developers and investors alike. The 14 neighborhood markets comprising WALLINGFORD DISTRICT Urban King are undoubtedly the most watched in the region and for that FREMONT reason alone are afforded analysis with the greatest level of granularity. KIRKLAND QUEEN This past year marked the first year when a slew of new development was ANNE set for delivery and economic fundamentals proved strong – so strong that proposed development continues to expand into future years. As of SOUTH CAPITOL LAKE UNION WEST December 2014, less than 2,000 units were planned for delivery in 2018. HILL BELLEVUE That figure has risen to over 13,000 units. BELLTOWN FIRST DOWNTOWN HILL The interest in development in these markets is no surprise given stable fundamentals. The investment sales market provides further incentive to SOUTH keep developing – fueled by sales prices on a PPU and PPSF basis hitting DOWNTOWN PIONEER new milestones. Urban King will remain a market to watch in 2016. SQUARE WEST SEATTLE CENTRAL DISTRICT “As of December 2014, less than 2,000 units BEACON HILL RAINIER VALLEY were planned for delivery in 2018. That figure has risen to over 13,000 units.” WA 900 Seattle by the numbers... NUMBER ONE SECOND best place in the THIRD highest median salary FOURTH richest city in the FIFTH fastest growing city to find a job country to own rental propery in the country U.S. city in the U.S. 1 (WalletHub, 2015) 2 (All Property Management, 2015) 3 (Forbes, 2015) 4 (USA Today, 2015) 5 (Forbes, 2015) 6 COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL SEATTLE MARKET FUNDAMENTALS 2016 Seattle Neighborhood Apartment Market Study URBAN KING $1,327 13.0% $2.04 11.5% 1.9% 20BP 2015 AVG RENT PER UNIT AVG RENT PER SF CURRENT VANCACY OUR MARKET $1,249 $1.92 2.1% 2014 AVG RENT PER UNIT AVG RENT PER SF CURRENT INSIGHT VANCACY Even with record delivery of new apartment units in Urban King in 2015, rental rates continue to rise while vacancy in boutique apartments remains at an incredibly low 1.9%. 24,976 36,313 The quantum of delivery of new apartment units begins a UNITS DELIVERED UNITS PLANNED massive ascension in 2016 with over 9,000 units planned for delivery. During 2017 – 2019 another 27,000 units are 12,665 13,194 planned, with even more developments in early planning 9,051 stages. The coming years will test the resilience of many neighborhoods within Urban King. $1,400 $1,400 8.00% 8.00% 6,449 7.00% 7.00% $1,200 $1,200 Vacancy Rate Vacancy 6.00% 6.00% $1,000 $1,000 5,155 5.00% 5.00% $800 $800 4,060 4.00% 4.00% $600 $600 3,351 3.00% 3.00% Monthly Rent Monthly 2,645 2,696 $400 $400 2,111 2.00% 2.00% 1,717 1,403 $200 $200 1,389 1.00% 1.00% 1,046 1,078 942 807 883 619 620 $0 $0 0.00% 0.00% Spring Fall Spring FallSpringSpringFall FallSpringSpringFall FallSpringSpringFall FallSpringSpringFall FallSpringSpringFall FallSpringSpringFall FallSpringSpringFall FallSpringSpringFall FallSpringSpringFall FallSpringSpringFall FallSpringSpringFall FallSpringSpringFall FallSpringSpringFall FallSpringSpringFall FallSpring2016Fall 2017Spring 2018Fall 20192016 2017 2018 2019 2000 2000 2001 2001200020022000200220012003200120032002200420022004200320052003200520042006200420062005200720052007200620082006200820072009200720092008201020082010200920112009201120102012201020122011201320112013201220142012201420132015201320152014 2014 2015 2015 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Monthly Rent Vacancy Rate Units Delivered Units Planned Rent & Vacancy Data Provided by Dupre + Scott For more comprehensive data, visit: www.duprescott.com SIXTH best city for SEVENTH best city for EIGHTH most walkable city NINTH “greenest” city in TENTH best Millenials in America employee satisfaction (Redfin, 2015) America (Nerdwallet, 2015) city for singles 6 (Niche, 2015) 7 (WalletHub, March 2014) 8 9 10 (Nerdwallet, 2015) WWW.DYLANSIMON.COM 7 2016 Seattle Neighborhood Apartment Market Study 2015 SALES & HISTORICAL SALES TRENDS 2000-2015 SALES TRENDS $400 7.0% 6.3% 6.2% 6.3% $350 $335 5.9% 6.0% 5.7% 5.5% 5.6% 5.5% $295 $300 5.0% 5.1% 5.0% 4.8% $253 4.5% 4.5% 4.5% $250 4.2% $225 $232 4.1% $213 $205 4.0% $202 $195 Rate $200 PPSF $174 $175 $161 Cap 3.0% $151 $144 $150 $150 $136 2.0% $100 $50 1.0% $0 0.0% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Year Year URBAN KING COUNTY: 5 UNIT TO 50 UNIT APARTMENT SALES 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Number of Sales 60 90 114 120 118 124 Total Sales Volume $85M $188M $264M $281M $343M $416M Average PPU $127,282 $133,474 $147,870 $181,118 $192,284 $241,154 Average PPSF $175 $195 $213 $253 $295 $335 Average Cap Rate 5.7% 5.5% 5.1% 4.8% 4.5% 4.1% Total Deliveries 2,645 620 2,696 4,060 5,155 6,449 Sales Data: 5-50 units 8 COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL SEATTLE Custom Apartment Investment Report ‐ 1/27/2016 ‐ Page 1 of 1 Source: The Apartment Investment Report, Copyright 2006 by Dupre + Scott Apartment Advisors, Inc. 2016 Seattle Neighborhood Apartment Market Study EMPLOYMENT GROWTH YEAR-OVER-YEAR GROWTH 15,798 15,916 21,351 16,022 26,747 URBAN KING JOBS JOBS JOBS JOBS JOBS 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 200,000 HOTTEST & COLDEST job growth in the last 3 years 180,000 23,734 RETAIL & SERVICES 160,000 140,000 1,870 TRADE, TRANSPORATION & UTILI- TIES 120,000 STEM JOB 100,000 JOBS GROWTH 80,000 18% 60,000 IN LAST 4 YEARS 40,000 40% IN LAST 10 YEARS 20,000 0 OUR MARKET INSIGHT In a recently published study from the Bay Area Council Economic Institute, data illustrates Construction/Manufacturing Retail/Service Trade/Transportation/Utilities that for every new Professional/STEM job, 4.3 additional jobs are created.