UNIVERSITY OF CALGARY Hegemony Over the Heavens: The Chinese and American Struggle in Space by John Hodgson Modinger A THESIS SUBMITTED TO THE FACULTY OF GRADUATE STUDIES IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY CENTRE FOR MILITARY AND STRATEGIC STUDIES CALGARY, ALBERTA AUGUST, 2008 © John Hodgson Modinger 2008 Library and Bibliotheque et 1*1 Archives Canada Archives Canada Published Heritage Direction du Branch Patrimoine de I'edition 395 Wellington Street 395, rue Wellington Ottawa ON K1A0N4 Ottawa ON K1A0N4 Canada Canada Your file Votre reference ISBN: 978-0-494-44361-3 Our file Notre reference ISBN: 978-0-494-44361-3 NOTICE: AVIS: The author has granted a non­ L'auteur a accorde une licence non exclusive exclusive license allowing Library permettant a la Bibliotheque et Archives and Archives Canada to reproduce, Canada de reproduire, publier, archiver, publish, archive, preserve, conserve, sauvegarder, conserver, transmettre au public communicate to the public by par telecommunication ou par Plntemet, prefer, telecommunication or on the Internet, distribuer et vendre des theses partout dans loan, distribute and sell theses le monde, a des fins commerciales ou autres, worldwide, for commercial or non­ sur support microforme, papier, electronique commercial purposes, in microform, et/ou autres formats. paper, electronic and/or any other formats. The author retains copyright L'auteur conserve la propriete du droit d'auteur ownership and moral rights in et des droits moraux qui protege cette these. this thesis. Neither the thesis Ni la these ni des extraits substantiels de nor substantial extracts from it celle-ci ne doivent etre imprimes ou autrement may be printed or otherwise reproduits sans son autorisation. reproduced without the author's permission. In compliance with the Canadian Conformement a la loi canadienne Privacy Act some supporting sur la protection de la vie privee, forms may have been removed quelques formulaires secondaires from this thesis. ont ete enleves de cette these. While these forms may be included Bien que ces formulaires in the document page count, aient inclus dans la pagination, their removal does not represent il n'y aura aucun contenu manquant. any loss of content from the thesis. Canada UNIVERSITY OF CALGARY FACULTY OF GRADUATE STUDIES The undersigned certify that they have read, and recommend to the Faculty of Graduate Studies for acceptance, a thesis entitled "Hegemony Over the Heavens: The Chinese and American Struggle in Space" submitted by John Hodgson Modinger in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy. Supervisor, Dr. David Wright, History Dr. John Ferris, History * Dr. Holger Herwig, History Dr. Joerg Denzinger, Computer Science External Examiner, Dr. James Fergusson, University of Manitoba Date ii ABSTRACT China's rise has generated awe and fear—awe over the pace of its economic transformation; fear about how that power will be exercised. The rise of a new great power always reshapes the structure of any international system, though turbulence and warfare is as much produced by the actions of declining states. Over the next generation, the world system will be shaped by the dynamics of interaction between Washington and Beijing. The actions of each state will affect the response of the other, and each will act according to the logic of its strategic culture. The transformation from a unipolar to multipolar world is underway. Americans are anxious about that. In an atmosphere of fear and frustration, voters are likely to reward pledges to stem the slide in American power, even though such actions may unnecessarily heighten global tensions and exacerbate the decline they were intended to halt. One controversial proposal seeks to perpetuate American dominance by preemptively * moving to control space. Advocates argue it will preserve American security and end war as we know it, ushering in unmatched global stability and fostering the spread of democracy and liberal institutions. What these advocates frequently marginalize are the staggering costs—economic and political—associated with such a preemptive move. Calls for unilateral action before American primacy in space is seriously challenged assume the placement of weapons in space is inevitable. Ultimately, they may be proven correct; however, a movement in that direction in the near term will likely have several negative consequences which may include a space arms race. Ironically, the greatest threat to U.S. security may be American impulsiveness. Facing an unknown but complex future, the United States may fall prey to worst-case scenario thinking and compromise, rather than improve, global stability. When China demonstrated its anti-satellite capability in 2007, it was not a direct challenge to American space power. Instead, Beijing was challenging the stated American policy goal of wanting to dominate space by military means. How the United States chooses to respond to this latter, more specific, challenge remains to be seen. in ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS There are many people I must thank. This entire PhD experience would not have been possible without the friendship, support, and faith shown by my boss at the U.S. Air Force Academy (USAFA), Colonel Thomas Drohan. It was he, along with Colonel Steve Baker, who recommended me for selection by the Air Force Institute of Technology (AFIT). I also owe a debt to Dr. Jim Titus, a great teacher, good friend and wise mentor, who encouraged my interest in further education. The decision to come to the University of Calgary was not entirely my own, but from the start, the experience has been a positive one. Before coming here, I thought I knew a fair amount about China, international relations, and history. I also thought I was a decent writer. Three years later, I realize I was a novice on all counts. Any progress I have made toward remedying those deficiencies owes much to the instructors I was lucky enough to have while here. Each of them, in their unique way, has provided useful insights and suggestions which have helped me in the process of putting this thesis * together. I must express my thanks to Dr. John Ferris, in particular. Though not my official supervisor, he has been incredibly helpful to me from the day I arrived in Canada. A student could not ask for better mentorship. He has gone the extra mile at every turn, making the learning process a genuine interactive experience—the sweat equity was mine, but he rewarded it by continuous feedback that made the writing task challenging, but highly rewarding. Without his help, this project may not have been completed on time, and the quality would, most certainly, have suffered. I also want to thank Dr. David Wright for his insights and suggestions along the way. It was he who suggested that I might want to focus on the Sino-American relationship within the context of space. The endeavor turned out to be both timely and interesting. Many others have provided invaluable service during my stay. I want to thank Dr. Holger Herwig, Dr. Pat Brennan, and Dr. Joerg Denzinger for their encouragement and support. Additionally, I must thank Dr. James Fergusson, of the University of Manitoba, for agreeing to join my defense committee, as its External Examiner. iv And, of course, nothing would get done without the behind-the-scene efforts of people like Dawn MacMillan at Graduate Studies or the unsung efforts of Trisha Henschel and Leah Wotherspoon. Dawn MacMillan has helped me resolve more financial and administrative issues than I can count, always with lightning efficiency, a sense of humor, and utmost professionalism. If I could export her back to my new job, I would, but I cannot imagine the university would let her go. Trisha and Leah have provided terrific support and coordination, freeing me to concentrate on other pressing matters. Finally, thanks to my fellow students who have provided empathy, inspiration and friendship throughout my stay. You kept me sane through it all. v DEDICATION To my parents, Hodgson and Elizabeth, for the many sacrifices they made to provide me the opportunities I had growing up. To my brother, Edward, who always makes me laugh. To my children, Ashley and Jack, who give my life greater meaning and fill it with joy. Most especially, this work is dedicated to my wonderful wife Annette, for her selflessness, her determination to keep our family strong during my absences, and her love and support. I am a lucky man. To each of you, I am forever grateful. VI TABLE OF CONTENTS Approval Page ii Abstract iii Acknowledgements iv Dedication vi Table of Contents vii List of Tables ix List of Abbreviations x Introduction xiv CHAPTER ONE: Chinese Ambitions and American Apprehensions 1 In Search of depth and breadth: a literature review 2 Chinese Strategic Thought 3 Theories Regarding China's Rise and the Likelihood of Conflict 12 Military Technology Development 14 Conclusion 30 CHAPTER TWO: Chinese Strategy and Policy 34 Enigmatic or predictable? 35 The Roots of Chinese Behavior 43 * Other Influences on Chinese Strategic Thinking 51 Veiled Belligerency 60 Chinese Perceptions of American Strategic Culture 70 Making War while Avoiding Battle 78 The Fear Factor 85 Conclusion 87 CHAPTER THREE: American Strategy and Policy 90 Survival & Growth 90 Lincoln & the Civil War (1861-1865) 95 1865-1914 97 Theodore Roosevelt 99 Woodrow Wilson 101 Franklin Roosevelt 108 Truman Ill Eisenhower 120 Reagan 125 George H. W. Bush 128 Clinton 132 George W. Bush 141 Conclusion