Political Culture of Democracy in Ecuador, 2010 Democratic Consolidation in the Americas in Hard Times By: Juan Carlos Donoso, Ph.D. Daniel Montalvo, Ph.D. Diana Orcés, Ph.D. Mitchell A. Seligson, Ph.D. Scientific Coordinator and Editor of the Series Vanderbilt University This study was done with support from the Program in Democracy and Governance of the United States Agency for International Development. The opinions expressed in this study are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the point of view of the United States Agency for International Development. March, 2011 Political Culture of Democracy in Ecuador, 2010 TABLE OF CONTENTS LIST OF FIGURES.................................................................................................................................................................... V LIST OF TABLES .....................................................................................................................................................................XI PREFACE ...............................................................................................................................................................................XIII PROLOGUE: BACKGROUND OF THE STUDY............................................................................................................... XV Acknowledgements ...........................................................................................................................................xxii EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ...................................................................................................................................................XXV PART I: HARD TIMES AND THEIR EFFECTS ON DEMOCRACY ................................................................................. 1 CHAPTER I . HARD TIMES IN THE AMERICAS: ECONOMIC OVERVIEW.............................................................. 3 Introduction......................................................................................................................................................... 3 Economic Overview............................................................................................................................................. 3 Dimensions of the Economic Crisis in Ecuador.................................................................................................. 9 Trends in Democratic Development.................................................................................................................. 12 Dimensions of Democracy in Ecuador.............................................................................................................. 14 The Relationship between Hard Times and Democracy.................................................................................... 16 CHAPTER II . CITIZEN PERCEPTIONS AND EXPERIENCES DURING HARD TIMES IN THE AMERICAS .... 19 Introduction....................................................................................................................................................... 19 Perceptions of the Magnitude of the Economic Crisis ...................................................................................... 19 Who is to Blame for the Economic Crisis?........................................................................................................ 22 The Ecuadorian Case ........................................................................................................................................ 24 Personal Experiences with Economic Instability .............................................................................................. 25 Job loss............................................................................................................................................................................ 25 Socio-Demographic Factors and Employment in Ecuador............................................................................... 28 Reported Decrease in Household Income ......................................................................................................... 29 Who Was Most Affected by the Economic Crisis?............................................................................................. 31 Perceptions of Personal and National Economic Situations............................................................................. 33 Conclusion......................................................................................................................................................... 35 CHAPTER III . DEMOCRATIC VALUES IN HARD TIMES ........................................................................................... 37 Introduction....................................................................................................................................................... 37 Support for Democracy ..................................................................................................................................... 46 Support for the Political System........................................................................................................................ 50 Satisfaction with democracy.............................................................................................................................. 58 Support for Military Coups ............................................................................................................................... 63 Conclusion......................................................................................................................................................... 70 PART II: RULE OF LAW, CRIME, CORRUPTION, AND CIVIL SOCIETY ................................................................. 71 CHAPTER IV . RULE OF LAW, CRIME, AND CORRUPTION ...................................................................................... 73 Introduction....................................................................................................................................................... 73 Theoretical background .................................................................................................................................... 73 Perception of Insecurity and Crime .................................................................................................................. 74 Crime Victimization........................................................................................................................................................ 76 Corruption......................................................................................................................................................... 82 Theoretical Background .................................................................................................................................................. 82 Measuring Corruption ..................................................................................................................................................... 83 Perception of Corruption................................................................................................................................................. 84 Victimization by Corruption ........................................................................................................................................... 86 The Impact of Crime, Insecurity and Corruption on Democracy...................................................................... 91 Support for the Rule of Law and the Impact of Crime and Insecurity............................................................... 92 Conclusion......................................................................................................................................................... 96 CHAPTER V . LEGITIMACY, SYSTEM SUPPORT, AND POLITICAL TOLERANCE.............................................. 97 Introduction....................................................................................................................................................... 97 Theoretical Background.................................................................................................................................... 97 The Legitimacy and Tolerance Equation......................................................................................................................... 97 A. Support for the Political System.................................................................................................................... 99 Theoretical Background .................................................................................................................................................. 99 B. Political Tolerance...................................................................................................................................... 103 ©LAPOP: Page iii Political Culture of Democracy in Ecuador, 2010 Theoretical Background ................................................................................................................................................ 103 C. Support for a Stable Democracy................................................................................................................. 106 Who is more likely to Support a Stable Democracy?.................................................................................................... 109 D. Legitimacy of Other Democratic Institutions