Equity Research 29 March 2015 1Q 2015 Global Top Picks Equity Research Team Barclays Capital Inc. and/or one of its affiliates does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. This research report has been prepared in whole or in part by equity research analysts based outside the US who are not registered/qualified as research analysts with FINRA. PLEASE SEE ANALYST CERTIFICATION(S) AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES BEGINNING ON PAGE 153. Barclays | 1Q 2015 Global Top Picks 29 March 2015 2 Barclays | 1Q 2015 Global Top Picks FOREWORD A lot has changed since we published our last Global Top Picks in December. The plunge in oil prices and the rise in the US dollar have produced clear beneficiaries in the euro area and Japan, where monetary policy continues to be extremely supportive, providing support for further upside in stock prices. As we argue in our Global Outlook: Oil, the dollar and monetary policy: it’s all (or at least mostly) good , lower inflation as a result of lower oil prices, combined with a stronger dollar, also argues for the Fed to be more cautious about raising rates than it otherwise would have been, allowing risk assets to continue to perform well. Against this continued accommodative backdrop, we raise our price targets for continental European and Japanese equities, forecasting an additional 13% and 9% of total returns from current levels to the end of 2015, respectively. With this publication, we are excited to bring you our consolidated global and regional Top Picks for Q1 2015, which represent our fundamental analysts’ single best alpha-generating investment idea within each industry, taken from among their Overweight-rated stocks. We have 116 Top Picks this quarter, across the Americas (53 stocks), EMEA (30 stocks), Japan (15 stocks) and Asia Ex-Japan (18 stocks). Our analysts will be providing intra-quarter updates to these Top Picks through their regular publications. Look out for updates and changes in our newly branded single-company “Top Picks” reports. To accompany our Top Picks brand, we are pleased to launch three new Top Picks pages on Barclays Live (keyword: TopPicksGlobal): an Interactive Chart with sector breakdowns, a Table with metrics that can be filtered and downloaded to Excel, and a new Publications page showing our latest global and regional quarterly Top Picks publications, as well as intra-quarter updates. We hope that these regular Top Picks updates provide you with food for thought, as our analysts seek to highlight and refresh their high conviction calls. As always, we welcome your feedback and look forward to continuing to provide you with useful inputs into your investment decisions. Jon Scoffin Head of Equity Research 29 March 2015 3 Barclays | 1Q 2015 Global Top Picks BARCLAYS AMERICAS EQUITY RESEARCH AMERICAS BASIC INDUSTRIES Canadian Metals & Mining U.S. Chemicals U.S. Metals & Mining U.S. Paper & Packaging Farooq Hamed Duffy Fischer Matthew J. Korn, CFA Scott L. Gaffner, CFA 1.416.863.8963 1.212.526.3212 1.212.526.3717 1.212.526.9132 [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] BCCI, Toronto BCI, New York BCI, New York BCI, New York CONSUMER Latin America Consumer U.S. Beverages & Tobacco U.S. Cosmetics: Household & U.S. Food Benjamin M. Theurer William Marshall, CFA Personal Care Andrew Lazar +52 55 5241 3322 1.212.526.7156 Lauren R. Lieberman 1.212.526.4668 1.212.526.3112 [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] BCI, New York BBMX, Mexico City BCI, New York BCI, New York ENERGY U.S. Food & Drug Retailing Americas Integrated Oil Canadian Oil & Gas: E&P North America Oilfield Services Meredith Adler, CFA U.S. Independent Refiners (Mid-Cap) & Equipment 1.212.526.7146 Paul Y. Cheng, CFA Grant Hofer, CFA J. David Anderson, CFA [email protected] 1.212.526.1884 1.403.592.7460 1 212 526 4016 BCI, New York [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] BCI, New York BCCI, Toronto BCI, New York FINANCIAL SERVICES North America Oil & Gas: E&P Canadian Financial Services U.S. Brokers, Asset Managers & U.S. Consumer Finance (Large Cap) John Aiken, CA, CFA Exchanges Mark C. DeVries Thomas R. Driscoll, CFA 1.416.863.8961 Kenneth Hill, CFA 1.212.526.9484 1.212.526.3557 [email protected] 1.212.526.7179 [email protected] [email protected] BCCI, Toronto [email protected] BCI, New York BCI, New York BCI, New York U.S. Insurance/Life U.S. Large-, Mid-, & U.S. REITs U.S. Small-Cap Banks Jay Gelb, CFA Small-Cap Banks Ross L. Smotrich Matthew J. Keating, CFA 1.212.526.1561 Jason M. Goldberg, CFA 1.212.526.2306 1.212.526.8572 [email protected] 1.212.526.8580 [email protected] [email protected] BCI, New York [email protected] BCI, New York BCI, New York BCI, New York HEALTHCARE U.S. Biotechnology U.S. Health Care Distribution & U.S. Health Care Facilities U.S. Life Science Tools & Geoff Meacham, Ph.D. Technology U.S. Health Care-Managed Care Diagnostics 1 212 526 2795 Eric Percher Joshua R. Raskin, CFA Jack Meehan, CFA [email protected] +1 212 526 5496 1.212.526.2279 1.212.526.3909 BCI, New York [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] BCI, New York BCI, New York BCI, New York U.S. Medical Supplies & Devices U.S. Specialty Pharmaceuticals Matthew Taylor, CFA Douglas D. Tsao 1.212.526.6965 1.212.526.4160 [email protected] [email protected] BCI, New York BCI, New York 29 March 2015 4 Barclays | 1Q 2015 Global Top Picks AMERICAS INDUSTRIALS Latin America North America Airfreight & U.S. Aerospace & Defense U.S. Airlines Cement & Construction Ground Transportation Carter Copeland David E. Fintzen Benjamin M. Theurer Brandon R. Oglenski 1.212.526.1661 1.212.526.5130 +52 55 5241 3322 1.212.526.8903 [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] BCI, New York BCI, New York BBMX, Mexico City BCI, New York U.S. Autos & Auto Parts U.S. Building Products & U.S. Business & Professional U.S. Engineering & Construction Brian A. Johnson Homebuilding Services U.S. Machinery 1.212.526.5627 Stephen Kim Manav Patnaik Andy Kaplowitz [email protected] 1.212.526.2805 1.212.526.2983 1.212.526.5586 BCI, New York [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] BCI, New York BCI, New York BCI, New York INTERNET & MEDIA U.S. Multi-Industry U.S. Internet U.S. Cable & Satellite Scott R. Davis, CFA Paul Vogel, CFA Communications, Media 1.212.526.5580 +1 212 526 0839 Kannan Venkateshwar [email protected] [email protected] 1.212.528.7054 BCI, New York BCI, New York [email protected] BCI, New York POWER & UTILITIES RETAIL Mexico Infrastructure Mexico Infrastructure North America Utilities U.S. Gaming, Leisure, & Lodging Pablo Monsivais Gilberto Garcia U.S. Power Felicia R. Hendrix +52 55 5241 3327 +52 55 5241 3326 Daniel Ford, CFA 1.212.526.5562 [email protected] [email protected] 1.212.526.0836 [email protected] BBMX, Mexico City BBMX, Mexico City [email protected] BCI, New York BCI, New York U.S. Luxury, Apparel and U.S. Restaurants U.S. Retail Hardlines U.S. Retail Softlines Footwear Jeffrey A. Bernstein Alan M. Rifkin Matthew McClintock, CPA, CFA Joan Payson 1.212.526.3855 1.212.526.1292 1.212.526.5257 1.212.526.3385 [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] BCI, New York BCI, New York BCI, New York BCI, New York TECHNOLOGY U.S. Emerging Technologies U.S. IT Consulting & Computer U.S. Semiconductors U.S. Software Joseph Wolf Services Blayne Curtis Raimo Lenschow, CFA +1 212 526 3392 Darrin D. Peller 1.617.342.4101 1.212.526.2712 [email protected] 1.212.526.7144 [email protected] [email protected] BCI, New York [email protected] BCI, New York BCI, New York BCI, New York TELECOMMUNICATIONS U.S. Telecom Services Amir Rozwadowski 1.212.526.4043 [email protected] BCI, New York 29 March 2015 5 Barclays | 1Q 2015 Global Top Picks BARCLAYS EMEA EQUITY RESEARCH EMEA African Precious Metals Emerging Markets Banks Emerging Markets Banks Emerging Markets Healthcare Andrew Byrne Cristina Marzea, CFA Valentina Stoykova Simon Mather + 44 (0)20 3555 7919 +44 (0)20 3555 0572 +44 (0)203 1340243 +44 (0)20 3134 3405 [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] Barclays, London Barclays, London Barclays, London Barclays, London Emerging Markets Oil & Gas Emerging Markets Oil & Gas Emerging Markets Telecom Services European Autos & Auto Parts Caroline Learmonth James Hutchison JP Davids, CFA Kristina Church +27 11 895 6080 +27 11 895 6823 +27 10 245 4240 +44 (0)20 3134 2199 [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] Absa, Johannesburg Absa, Johannesburg Absa, Johannesburg Barclays, London European Autos & Auto Parts European Banks European Banks European Banks Michael Tyndall Jeremy Sigee Kiri Vijayarajah Paulina Sokolova +44 (0)20 7773 2327 +44