The provision and influence of evidence-based policy advice: A case study of the National Advisory Council on Innovation by Tracy Gillian Bailey Dissertation presented for the degree of PhD in Science and Technology Studies in the Faculty of Arts and Social Sciences at Stellenbosch University Supervisor: Prof Johann Mouton Co-supervisor: Prof Nico Cloete March 2020 i Stellenbosch University https://scholar.sun.ac.za Declaration By submitting this research assignment electronically, I declare that the entirety of the work contained therein is my own, original work, that I am the sole author thereof (save to the extent explicitly otherwise stated), that reproduction and publication thereof by Stellenbosch University will not infringe any third‐party rights and that I have not previously in its entirety or in part submitted it for obtaining any qualification. March 2020 Copyright © 2020 Stellenbosch University All rights reserved Stellenbosch University https://scholar.sun.ac.za Abstract Evidence-based policy(-making) (EBP) has been adopted in many countries as knowledge and expertise are increasingly regarded as part of the core capabilities of political administrations in modern democracies. Advisory bodies which produce scientific or evidence-based advice have become an important form of support to and institutionalisation of EBP. However, empirical studies have shown that EBP remains an ideal in the context of the complexities of public policy-making and that advisory bodies seldom have much impact on the policy process. In South Africa, the National Advisory Council on Innovation (NACI) is a statutory body mandated to provide evidence-based advice to the Minister of Science and Technology. Since its establishment in 1997, there have been widespread perceptions that it is ineffective and uninfluential and therefore unable to realise its full potential and contribution to strengthening science, technology and innovation (STI) policy-making in the country. The main question this study seeks to address is: how does the nature of NACI’s institutional and organisational design, the policy context within which it operates, and the interaction and relationship between these aspects, impact on the outcomes of NACI’s advice and its influence on the policy process? Using a qualitative case study design based on documentary analysis and interviews with key informants, the study approaches this question through four empirical lenses: (1) the broader political and policy environment, with a specific focus on institutional and policy developments for the governance of science and technology; (2) NACI as an organisation – the conditions under which it emerged, its institutional design, and how it has interpreted and adjusted to its policy and institutional environments over time; (3) one of NACI’s longer-term advisory initiatives as a way of seeing ‘NACI in action’ and assessing the uptake of its advice; and (4) the factors which have played a role in shaping and constraining the provision of advice and NACI’s influence on policy. The findings reveal that while NACI looks good on paper and has produced a fairly substantial array of advice and supporting research evidence, in reality it has faced various challenges amidst complex dynamics which have limited its real and potential influence. Key among these have been inadequate internal capacity, its lack of independence from the Department of Science and Technology (DST), its low profile in the system, negative perceptions of its credibility and legitimacy, and a policy environment that is uncoordinated and beset with its own capacity challenges. Overall, Stellenbosch University https://scholar.sun.ac.za the study demonstrates that there are ever-increasing degrees of dilution in the production and movement of NACI’s work, leaving the potential for its influence progressively weakened. The new White Paper on Science, Technology and Innovation (2019) proposes an expanded mandate and strengthened role for NACI in support of a new inter-ministerial structure for STI coordination. For NACI’s potential and effectiveness in this regard to be fully realised, it is argued that various issues will need to be addressed including NACI’s internal capacity; its independence, profile and credibility; role clarification between NACI and the DST; and better institutionalisation of NACI’s advisory work within the policy process. Stellenbosch University https://scholar.sun.ac.za Opsomming Die praktyk van bewysgebaseerde beleid(-making) (BBM) is deesdae kenmerkend van baie lande omrede kennis en kundigheid toenemend as deel van die kernvermoëns van politieke administrasies in moderne demokrasieë beskou word. ’n Belangrike vorm van ondersteuning vir BBM is adviesliggame wat wetenskaplike of bewysgebaseerde advies lewer; dieselfde adviesliggame is ook belangrik vir die institusionalisering van BBM. Empiriese studies het egter getoon dat BBM slegs ’n ideaal bly in die konteks van die kompleksiteite van openbare beleidmaking en dat adviesliggame selde ’n betekenisvolle impak op die beleidsproses het. Die Nasionale Adviesraad vir Innovasie (NACI) is ’n voorbeeld van ’n relevante adviesliggaam in Suid- Afrika. NACI is ’n statutêre liggaam wat gemagtig is om bewysgebaseerde advies aan die Minister van Wetenskap en Tegnologie te lewer. Sedert die totstandkoming van NACI in 1997 was daar egter wydverspreide persepsies dat die organisasie ondoeltreffend is en gebrekkige invloed het, en daarom nie die volle potensiaal en bydrae tot die versterking van beleid, wetenskap, tegnologie en innovasie (WTI) in die land kan realiseer nie. Die belangrikste vraag wat hierdie studie wou beantwoord is: hoe beïnvloed die aard van die institusionele en organisatoriese ontwerp van NACI, die beleidskonteks waarbinne dit werk, asook die wisselwerking en verband tussen die vermelde aspekte op die uitkomste van die advies van NACI en die invloed daarvan op die beleidsproses? Die betrokke vraag is deur vier empiriese lense beskou, waar die empiriese werk ’n kwalitatiewe gevallestudie-ontwerp gebaseer op dokumentêre analise en onderhoude met sleutelinformante behels. Die lense was: (1) die breër politieke en beleidsomgewing, met ’n spesifieke fokus op institusionele en beleidsontwikkelings vir die bestuur van wetenskap en tegnologie; (2) NACI as ’n organisasie – die omstandighede waarbinne NACI ontstaan het, die institusionele ontwerp van die organisasie en hoe dit oor tyd heen geïnterpreteer en aangepas is by die beleid- en institusionele omgewings; (3) ’n spesifieke langer-termyn inisiatief van NACI ten einde ‘NACI in aksie’ te sien en die gebruik van die organisasie se advies te beoordeel; en (4) die faktore wat ’n rol gespeel het in beide die vorming en beperking van advies gelewer en die invloed van NACI op beleid. Uit die bevindinge blyk dit dat, hoewel NACI op papier goed lyk en verskeie advies en ondersteunende navorsingsbewyse gelewer het, die organisasie in werklikheid verskillende uitdagings in die gesig staar te midde van 'n ingewikkelde dinamiek wat die organisasie se werklike Stellenbosch University https://scholar.sun.ac.za en potensiële invloed beperk. Die belangrikste hiervan is onvoldoende interne kapasiteit, sowel as die gebrek aan onafhanklikheid van die Departement van Wetenskap en Tegnologie (DWT), die lae profiel van NACI in die stelsel, die negatiewe persepsies rakende NACI se geloofwaardigheid en legitimiteit, en ’n beleidsomgewing wat nie gekoördineerd is nie en sukkel met die uitdagings van eie kapasiteit. In die geheel toon die studie ’n steeds-toenemende mate van verwatering in die produksie en beweging van NACI se werk, wat die potensiaal vir NACI se werk om enige invloed te hê geleidelik verswak. Die nuwe Witskrif oor Wetenskap, Tegnologie en Innovasie (2019) stel beide ’n uitgebreide mandaat en ’n versterkte rol vir NACI voor ter ondersteuning van ’n nuwe interministeriële struktuur vir die koördinasie van wetenskap, tegnologie en innovasie. Ten einde die potensiaal en doeltreffendheid van NACI in hierdie verband ten volle te verwesenlik, word aangevoer dat verskillende kwessies aangespreek moet word. Die kwessies behels, onder andere, die interne kapasiteit van NACI; die onafhanklikheid, profiel en geloofwaardigheid van die organisasie; die verduideliking en verheldering van NACI en die DWT se onderskeie rolle; en ’n beter institusionalisering van die adviserende werk van NACI binne die beleidsproses. Stellenbosch University https://scholar.sun.ac.za For my Dad Stellenbosch University https://scholar.sun.ac.za Acknowledgements I would like to express my gratitude to the following for their contributions to this endeavour: Johann Mouton and Nico Cloete for providing me with this opportunity and for their valuable guidance and advice in getting me over the finish line. The individuals whom I interviewed for giving so generously of their time, knowledge and insights and for bringing the topic alive for me. My mother, brother and friends for their constant love and support, and their enduring patience with my one-trick pony conversational topic; and my ‘PhD tribe’ – the good doctors Alex Dodd, Annemi Conradie, Mushé Degoot and Sharman Wickham – for walking this journey with me, bringing in reinforcements during periods of crippling self-doubt and overwhelm, and celebrating every milestone small and large along the way. I could not have done this without you. The financial assistance of the National Research Foundation (NRF) towards this research is hereby acknowledged. Opinions expressed and conclusions