May 2, 2016 “Compact Cars experienced the largest decline while Compact Crossover/SUVs showed biggest lift in values as supplies on small cars remains high while demand for small crossovers continues to be strong.” Anil Goyal, Senior Vice President of Automotive Valuation and Analytics +0.2% 0% -$2 -0.01% -$25 -0.2% -$26 -$60 -$18 CARS -0.15% -0.15% -0.18% -$51 -$39 -0.21% -$99 -$21 -0.24% -0.23% WEEKLY CHANGE WEEKLY -0.4% -0.28% -0.31% -$29 -0.35% -0.6% +0.6% +$47 +0.36% +$32 +0.4% +0.25% $0 +$0 $0 +$4 +0.2% +0.06% +$9 0% +0.00% 0% +0.03% 0% TRUCKS +0.05% -0.2% -$19 -$14 -0.09% -0.07% -$27 WEEKLY CHANGE WEEKLY -$48 -$53 -$65 -0.4% -0.19% -0.23% -0.24% -0.21% -0.6% Model Years: 2008-2014, Volume Weighted Wholesale Average Values, Weekly Change from 4/22/16 to 4/29/16 Truck Values Improved while Car Segments Continued to Decline Last Week Volume-weighted, overall car values decreased by 0.21% last week. This is slightly higher than the average depreciation rate of 0.13% seen in the previous four weeks. Compact Car, Sub-Compact Car, Prestige Luxury Car and Luxury Car segments performed the worst, changing by -0.35%, -0.31%, -0.28% and -0.24%, respectively. Volume-weighted, overall truck values increased by +0.05% last week. This is much better than the average change of -0.12% seen in the previous four weeks. Compact Crossover/SUV and Minivan segments performed the best, changing by +0.36% and +0.25%, respectively. May 2, 2016 Sentiment from the Auction Lanes Our editors and personnel attend about 60 auctions every week across the country to provide key insights: “SUV’s, 4x4 trucks and high-end vehicles were in demand at today’s auction.” Ben from CA “Good sale today with really good attendance. Buyers looking for good history and sharp units.” Gerry from FL “Consignment and attendance were both down this week but still a decent sale thanks to the internet buyers.” Herb from PA “Heavy demand for used vehicles in this area with a small sale today and good units selling quickly.” Gene from PA “Bidding remains active on both cars and trucks at this location. Trucks remain strong with very little dip in prices.” Mark from MI Industry Events U.S. Average Fuel Prices $3.10 Black Book personnel will be $2.90 attending several upcoming $2.70 events. Among them: $2.50 $2.30 $2.10 $1.90 $1.70 $1.50 May 9-10th, 2016 Fort Worth, TX Gasoline Diesel Hope to see you there! Diesel Prices move Closer to Gasoline Prices Gasoline price increased last week by $0.025 to $2.162. Diesel price increased last week by $0.033 to $2.198. Vehicle Highlight 2017 Buick Envision fits between the compact Encore and the 3-row Enclave. Base MSRP starts at $34,065 not including destination charge. Trim levels include Base, Convenience, Leather, Premium I and Premium II. FWD and AWD variations are available. Close competitors include BMW X3, Acura RDX, Lincoln MKC. This week’s report includes our Monthly Edition Supplement on Specialty Markets. 2 SPECIALTY MARKETS: COLLECTIBLE CARS May 2, 2016 Late Model Luxury Cars Showing Up At Collector Auctions “We’ve been seeing a pretty large uptick in late model luxury vehicles showing up at collectible car auctions recently. Although this isn’t really a new concept (many of the less desirable auction time slots have been filled in with these kinds of cars for years), what is different now is the amount that we’re seeing and the prominence that these vehicles, such as the R-230 (2001-2012) Mercedes Benz SL models, are receiving. ” Eric Lawrence, Director of Specialty Markets American Classics 1946-75 47000 46000 45000 44000 43000 42000 41000 Three auctions which cater to the more affordable side of the hobby were held recently, the Branson Auction in Missouri, Mecum’s Houston sale, and Leake Dallas. Mecum led the way with sales of $20,000,000 and a 66% sell through rate, while Leake hit $4,100,000 and 59%. Branson’s most interesting offering was the 1967 Grumann Widgeon seaplane used in Fantasy Island, which sold for $303,000. I can’t imagine how many people must have dusted off their best “Tattoo” impression and yelled “De Plane” when it crossed the block. The two 2006 Ford GT Heritage Editions that were offered at Mecum give us some insight into how the market is currently viewing (and valuing) originality. A pristine example with 1,265 miles sold for an impressive $425,000, while a modified (800hp and a large rear wing) 559 mile car failed to sell after stalling at $327,500. Notable Sales Include: 2006 Ford GT Heritage $425,000 (Mecum) 1970 Ford Mustang Boss 429 $270,000 (Mecum) 2006 Mercedes SLR McLaren $205,000 (Mecum) 1970 Chevrolet Chevelle SS454 LS6 $170,000 (Mecum) 1997 Lamborghini Diablo Rdstr $162,000 (Mecum) 1964 Lincoln Continental Conv $60,000 (Leake) 2009 Mercedes SL63 AMG Rdstr $28,000 (Leake) 1958 Cadillac Brougham Sedan $88,000 (Branson) 1988 Ferrari Testarossa $104,000 (Branson) Photo Courtesy of Mecum Auctions Photo courtesy of RM Sotheby’s 3 SPECIALTY MARKETS: RECREATIONAL VEHICLES May 2, 2016 RV Values Starting to Level Off “As we enter the last part of spring and the first part of summer, the values of RVs sold at wholesale auction have started to level off. This is not surprising for this time of year, as most dealers have been buying inventory for the past several months in order to be fully stocked when the first wave of shoppers were lured into their stores by the nicer weather. As the year progresses, I expect that most dealers in “seasonal” regions will continue to purchase units to replace their sold inventory until late summer or early fall.” Eric Lawrence, Director of Specialty Markets 46000 Motor Home Value Trends 44000 42000 40000 38000 36000 34000 32000 30000 Jul Jul Jul Jun Jun Jun Oct Oct Oct Oct Apr Apr Apr Apr Feb Sep Feb Sep Feb Feb Feb July Dec Dec Dec Dec Aug Aug Aug Aug Nov Nov Nov Nov Mar Mar Mar Mar Mar May May May May Sept Sept June Jan-16 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-12 For Motor Homes (including Class A, B, and C) Average selling price was $35,168, up $44 (0.1%) from previous month One year ago, the average selling price was $35,839 Auction volume was up 2% from previous month 12500 Travel Trailer and Fifth Wheel Value Trends 12000 11500 11000 10500 10000 9500 9000 Jul Jul Jul Jun Jun Jun Oct Oct Oct Oct Apr Apr Apr Apr Feb Sep Feb Sep Feb Feb Feb July Dec Dec Dec Dec Aug Aug Aug Aug Nov Nov Nov Nov Mar Mar Mar Mar Mar May May May May Sept Sept June Jan-16 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-12 For Towables (including Travel Trailers, Fifth Wheels, and Camping Trailers) Average selling price was $11,965, up $17 (0.1%) from previous month One year ago, the average selling price was $10,558 Auction volume was up 25% from previous month 4 SPECIALTY MARKETS: POWERSPORTS May 2, 2016 Powersports Market Experiences Mixed Results “After last month’s solid, though modest, gains for most of the segments, things are more of a “mixed bag” this month. Prices are generally up for the more recent models, while many of the older units have declined a bit, bringing down the averages.” Scott Yarbrough, Motorcycle & Powersports Editor Motorcycle & Powersports Percent Change April to May 2016 1.00% 0.60% 0.50% 0.30% 0.50% 0.20% 0.00% 0.00% -0.50% -0.60% -1.00% -0.90% -1.50% -1.40% -1.70% -2.00% -1.90% -2.50% Both the street and cruiser segments are up by roughly half a percent overall, but older units, 2010s and back, have generally declined in value, while the newer years are up a bit. The above trend is even more pronounced for utility vehicles, to the point that overall pricing actually showed a nearly two percent decline this month. This is likely a result of supply finally catching up with demand as manufacturers have flooded the market with new models and expanded financing options over the past several years. Jet Boats and Personal Watercraft are both up roughly a quarter percent versus last month, and will likely see bigger gains as the weather warms up. Scooters showed no change overall, and have been very steady recently. The off-road segments, bikes, snowmobiles, and ATVs, are all down this month. 5 SPECIALTY MARKETS: HEAVY DUTY May 2, 2016 HD Depreciation Consistent for 3 Months in a Row “Signs of increasing depreciation towards the end of April.” Charles Cathey, Editor – Heavy Duty Truck Data Depreciation for the past three months has been very consistent but there were signs at the very end of April that auction values for the Over the Road and Regional Heavy Duty Trucks may be starting to drop more heavily. The Constructional/Vocational segment have showed no signs of this increasing depreciation. We would like to note that depreciation for the Older Segment (2005-2012) of Over the Road and Regional Trucks and Tractors is less than the Newer Segment and we are keeping an eye out for the possibility that the newest pre-emission trucks, 2005’s and 2006’s may have less depreciation than the rest.