RUSSNEFT SUBS RUSSIAN EQUITY RESEARCH 14 MARCH 2006 RUSSNEFT SUBS Bloomberg: Reuters: VARN, ORFE, VARN, ORFE, SNFG, ORNE UPSIDE SNFG, ORNE INITIATION OF COVERAGE Eugene Satskov, CFA (+7 495) 9333316 [email protected] Sales: London (+44 020) 74396881 Moscow (+7 495)9333302 Exhibit 1 Russneft Subsidiaries: Share Ratings and Target prices Share Price MCAP Fair Value Target Price Upside, % Ratings Russneft Ticker Company name Ord Prefs Ord Prefs Ord Prefs Ord Prefs ownership Free float,% USD USD USD USD mn USD mn USD USD % mn Upstream companies VARN Varieganneft 26 20 654 1,141 47 30 81% 50% Buy Buy 38% 10% 64 SNFG Saratovneftegas 145 112 452 384 128 81 12% 27% Sell Sell 99% 1% 5 Refineries ORFE Orsk Refinery 65 55 298 611 141 90 117% 63% Buy Buy 96% 4% 11 Marketing ORNE OrenburgNP 150 99 95 94 148 94 1% 4% Hold Hold 98% 2% 2 Source: Bloomberg, IFC Metropol estimates *We price preference shares at 30% discount to common shares Exposure to fastest growing oil company Russneft is the fastestgrowing oil company in Russia by production. It was founded in 2002, and has since grown by acquisition. While Russneft is not publicly traded, some of its subsidiaries are, and can provide exposure to the group’s fast pace of growth for portfolio investors willing to weather the risks. VARN: 81% upside for common shares Varieganneft (VARN) trades at a 70% discount to peers on a reserves basis, and 10% on a production basis. We estimate Varieganneft’s equity value at $1.1 billion, suggesting upside potential of 81% from its current market value. ORFE: 117% upside for common shares We estimate Orsk refinery’s fair equity value at $611 million, suggesting 117% po tential upside for common shares, and 63% for preference shares. Russneft is plan ning in 2006 to boost Orsk’s throughput by 60%, to 5.5 mn tonnes, which would raise capacity utilization to 82%. While we valued ORFE on its 2005 volumes, higher 2006 production forecasts suggest potential for further increases in value. SNFG and ORNE shares overvalued We estimate the fair equity value of SNFG at $384 million and ORNE at $66 million, suggesting overvaluation of 12% and 1% respectively. Russneft subs are speculative plays Minority shareholders of Russneft’s subsidiaries must contend with risks of poor corporate governance, including, in our view, asset and cashflow stripping activi ties. Also, we think Russneft’s subsidiaries lack clear exits for potential minority shareholders, such as a buyout or consolidation. Therefore, we qualify the high lighted upsides as speculative plays that come with substantial risks. FOR PROFESSIONAL USE ONLY This report must be read with the disclaimer, disclosure and analyst certifications on the last page Exhibit 2 Russneft’s public subsidiaries RUSSNEFT Upstream Refining Marketing Varieganneft Orsk refinery Orenburgnefteproduct 38% 96% 101 gasoline stations Production -16.6 mn boe Capacity - 6.7 mn tonnes 98% ABC1 Reserves - 699 mn boe Throughput – 3.5 mn tonnes Throughput -606 000 tonnes Saratovneftegas Neftemaslozavod 99% Production -11.8 mn boe 95% Capacity – 100 000 tonnes ABC1 Reserves - 155 mn boe Throughput – 30 000 tonnes Source: Company information, IFC Metropol estimates 2 Russneft is the youngest and fastestgrowing Russian oil shares offer sizable potential upside from their current company, with a diversified portfolio of oilproducing as prices. But since we see no real immediate catalyst that sets. Russneft core shareholder and CEO, Mikhail Gut would trigger a price rerating by the market, and the lack syriev, together with Swiss international commodity trad of exit options for minority investors, we think both ing company Glencore International, are trying to turn stocks should be treated as speculative plays only. Russneft into an oil major via the acquisition of inde pendent producers and noncore assets of other Russian Murky corporate governance a risk. When asked about oil companies. how he would deal with minority shareholders of Russ neft’s subsidiaries, CEO Mikhail Gutsyriev was quoted in Only subsidiaries’ shares are traded. While Russneft a Russian magazine as saying, “who said that life is fair”. shares are not traded, the group has a number of subsidi While he went on to say that the question of buying out aries that are: minorities would depend on the price, we think the • Varieganneft (VARN) quote suitably summed up the risks of investing in Russ • Saratovneftegas (SNFG) neft’s subsidiaries. These shareholders bear considerable • Orsk refinery (ORFE) risks of asset and cashflow stripping, in our view. • Orenburgnefteproduct (ORNE) VARN offers upside potential of 81% for common and Russneft acquired three of these public subsidiaries 50% for preference shares. We estimate Varieganneft’s (SNFG, ORFE, ORNE) from TNKBP in December equity value at $1.1 billion, based on peers’ asset multi 2005. SNFG is an upstream oil company with 163 million ples, suggesting upside potential of 81% from its current boe of proven and probable reserves, and 42,000 boe of market valuation. Relative to peers, VARN trades at a dis COVERAGE COVERAGE daily production. ORFE consists of a 6.7 million tonne count of 70% per barrel of reserves, and at a 10% dis OF capacity refinery, located in the Orenburg region. count per barrel of production. ORNE is a distribution company, with 101 gasoline sta tions and 37 oil tank farms in the Orenburg region. ORFE shares offer 117% upside for common and 63% for Neftemaslozavod is a small specialized refinery, with preference shares. We estimate Orsk’s fair common eq 100,000 tonnes of nameplate capacity and 30,000 tonnes uity value at $611 million, hinting at 117% upside poten INITIATION of lubricant production in 2005. While the acquisition tial. According to statements from the company, Russneft price was not officially disclosed, it was rumored to be plans to boost Orsk’s throughput by 60%, to 5.5 mn ton close to US$1bn. We estimate that Russneft paid a control nes, and its capacity utilization from 52% to 82% in 2006. premium of around 40% above the TNKBP subsidiaries’ Higher throughput suggests further upside potential for $700mn market value, which to us seems reasonable, ORFE’s equity value. given the large number of bidders. SaratovNG and OrenburgNP shares appear overvalued. We see considerable upside potential in VARN and We estimate SNFG’s fair equity value at $384 million, ORFE, while SNFG and ORNE appear overvalued. We some 12% above its current market capitalization. ORNE valued Russneft’s public subsidiaries using a comparison is also trading at a premium to peers’ assetbased of assetbased multiples with their public peers. Based on multiples, suggesting downside potential of 1% from its RUSSNEFT SUBS these calculations, we believe that VARN and ORFE current market valuation. 14 MARCH 2006 Exhibit 3 Market Valuation of Upstream subsidiaries Net Proven EV/ EV/ Subsidiary Holding Mcap Debt* EV Reserves Prodn Reserves Prodn USDmn USDmn USDmn mn boe mn boe USD/boe USD/boe MegionNG Slavneft 7,175 209 7,384 1,755 156 4.21 47 Orenburgneft TNKBP 5,097 1 5,095 1,649 121 3.09 42 Bashneft 3,230 0 3,230 1,479 90 2.18 36 Udmurtneft TNKBP 2,255 41 2,296 1,225 64 1.87 36 Varyeganneftegas TNKBP 1,255 122 1,377 1,596 33 0.86 42 Purneftegas* Rosneft 4,982 406 5,389 5,007 90 1.08 60 Sakhalin MNG Rosneft 1,484 131 1,615 768 23 2.10 71 Krasnodarneftegas Rosneft 725 0.16 725 198 16 3.67 45 Stavropolneftegaz Rosneft 193 20 213 74 8 2.89 26 Average 2.65 47 Varieganneft Russneft 654 178 832 699 17 1.19 50 Saratovneftegas Russneft 452 41 493 114 12 4.32 42 Average 3.07 42 Source: Company reports, Bloomberg, IFC Metropol estimates Exhibit 4 Valuation of Russneft’s upstream subsidiaries on peers’ multiples Target EV Target MCAP Targeted EV/ EV/ Reserves Prodn Reserves Prodn Mid Upside Reserves Prodn USDmn USDmn USDmn USDmn USD/boe USD/boe Varieganneft 1,854 784 1,676 607 1,141 74% 1.89 79 Saratovneftegas 303 548 262 507 384 15% 3.73 37 Source: Company reports, Bloomberg, IFC Metropol estimates 3 We valued Russneft’s upstream subsidiaries using public ket valuation for common shares, and 50% for prefer Russian peers’ assetbased multiples as a comparison. We ence shares. estimate that Russian oil majors’ public subsidiaries cur rently trade at $2.7 per barrel of proven reserves, on average, SARATOVNEFTEGAS and $47 per boe of current production (See Exhibit 3). We We estimate Saratovneftegas’s 2P reserves at 163 million used these same multiples to estimate the fair value of Russ boe, and proven reserves at 114 million boe. Sara neft’s public upstream subsidiaries. tovNG reported its total ABC1 reserves at 155 million boe at the end of 2004. TNKBP estimated its proven and VARIEGANNEFT probable reserves (2P reserves) at 163 million boe in Varieganneft was one of Russneft’s first upstream sub 2005, when it was sold to Russneft. We applied a 30% dis sidiaries, and is a core asset of the group. Varieganneft count to Saratovneftegas’s 2P reserves and estimated its is developing five oil fields Varieganskoye, Valyunen proven reserves at 114 million boe at the end of 2005. skoye, NovoAganskoye, Kalinovoye and Yuzhno Kalinovoye fields. According to Russneft’s web site, Varie Saratovneftegas’s production fell by 26% YoY, to 12 mn ganneft’s total recoverable reserves amount to 100 mil boe in 2005. We believe this came as a result of a 24% de lion tonnes (or some 0.7 billion boe). According to Varie cline in crude production, to 8.9 mn boe, and an almost ganneft’s 3Q05 disclosure report, its total ABC1 reserves 30% drop in gas production, to 2.9 mn boe.