coverSEP-final-2012_Layout 1 8/10/12 5:46 PM Page 1 8 AMERICA AEROSPACE September 2012 SEPTEMBER 2012 SEPTEMBER Curiosity triumphs Declassifying the space race Aeronautics: Frontiers of the imaginable A PUBLICATION OF THE AMERICAN INSTITUTE OF AERONAUTICS AND ASTRONAUTICS SPACElayout0912_Layout 1 8/10/12 4:35 PM Page 2 Balance of space launches shifts DURING THE SECOND HALF OF January-June, U.S. rockets (Atlas 2011 there have consistently been Long March V, Delta IV, Falcon 9, and Pegasus more orbital space launches at- XL) accounted for 23% of the mis- tempted than during the first half. sions; Russian/Ukrainian rockets The last exceptions to this pattern (Proton M, Soyuz, and Zenit 3SL), were in 2002 and 2003. In both of 29%; Chinese (Long March), 29%; those years, the number of at- European (Ariane 5 and Vega), tempted launches in January-June 11%; with Japanese (H-2A), In- equaled the number for July-De- dian (PSLV XL), Iranian (Safir 1B), cember: 66 launches in 2002 and and North Korean (Unha 3) rock- 62 in 2003. Since then, except for ets making up the remaining 8%. 2011, the number of launches at- tempted in the first six months of A three-country race each year has accounted for 42- The launch market—in terms of 48% of the total launches each number of missions—is no longer year. dominated by the U.S. and Rus- In 2011, the percentage no- sia; it has definitely become a ticeably dropped to 38, with 30 three-country race, with China launches in the first half of the picking up the pace over the past year and 49 in the second. The year to establish its preeminence. significant increase in activity dur- If we combine the number of ing the second half was fueled Long March vehicles launched largely by 14 Long March rocket during the second half of 2011 missions and 11 Soyuz missions. and the first half of 2012, the Chi- Assuming that the increased nese have launched 24 rockets— launch activity in last year’s sec- an average of two missions per ond half was an anomaly, this month over that period. year’s total number of launches A shift is clearly occurring, could surpass 80. With a total of and it is happening despite 35 launches attempted during the China’s relative handicap when it first six months of this year, and comes to competing for commer- given the launch trends we have cial launch contracts around the observed over most of the past world due to the U.S. govern- decade, it would be reasonable to ment’s ITAR (International Traffic project some 45 launches for July in Arms Regulations) restrictions. through December. On the other These are measures that discour- hand, if we were to assume last year U.S. government or U.S. companies age Western satellite manufacturers was not an aberration, but rather the (Atlas II, Delta II, Delta III, Minotaur I, from securing launch deals with the start of a new pattern, then it is en- Pegasus XL, space shuttle, Taurus I, Chinese. However, this situation is tirely possible that this year’s launch Titan 23G, Titan 4B, and Zenit 3SL) ac- gradually changing: Countries such as total could surpass 90. The last year counted for 36% of the launches; oil-rich Venezuela and Nigeria are there was anything close to this level Russian/Ukrainian rockets (Cosmos, moving to purchase Chinese-built of launch activity was in 2000, with a Dnepr, Proton K, Rockot, Soyuz, Start, satellites and paying to have them total of 87 launch attempts. Tsyklon 3, and Zenit 2), 41%; Euro- launched aboard Long March vehicles, The difference between the kind pean rockets (Ariane 4 and Ariane 5), while other countries are proceeding of launch activity that occurred in 18%; and Chinese launchers (Long to buy ‘ITAR-free’ (carrying no U.S. 2000 versus today is that there was March), 5%. Japan barely registered content) satellites from European much less balance then in the distribu- that year, with only one, unsuccessful, companies and simply thumbing their tion of missions by country. In 2000, launch of its M-5. noses at the de-facto U.S. embargo for example, rockets belonging to the If we look now at launches during against the Long March. 20 AEROSPACE AMERICA/SEPTEMBER 2012 SPACElayout0912_Layout 1 8/10/12 4:35 PM Page 3 WhatChinaoffers (SpaceX) and other startup companies PayloadslaUnChed The truth is that China’s Long March seeking to offer newer low-cost bytype,January-June2012 program has an excellent launch rec- launchers employing reusable tech- total: 52 ord. Its rockets almost never fail and nologies, stimulating new user appli- are priced extremely competitively. In cations and markets. addition, there is a wider degree of di- University Civil versity in the variants of these vehicles Payloadtrends 11 17 than in perhaps any launch program— Along with the shift in the makeup enabling the rocket’s marketer, China and launch rates of the launch services Great Wall Industry, tremendous flexi- providers, there has been a noticeable bility in promoting the vehicle for dif- change since the turn of the century in ferent size satellites and different or- terms of the types of payloads being bital destinations. launched. While Western, Russian/Ukrainian, While there are still more than 100 Japanese, and Indian launch programs payloads launched annually, a greater CommerCial military tend to use no more than two or three proportion of them are military satel- 11 13 variants of their rockets on a regular lites and tiny university spacecraft. Of basis, the Chinese make a habit of us- the 134 payloads launched in 2000, ing a much wider range of Long 38% were civil (government nonmili- March models. For the 10 Long March tary), 34% commercial, 20% military, also because it is very busy launching missions conducted through June and 8% university. By comparison, of so many civil and military payloads. In since the start of the year, seven differ- the 52 payloads launched during the other words, the country already has ent models were used: Long March first half of this year, 33% were civil, its hands full with its government CZ-2D, CZ-2F, CZ-3A, CZ-3B, CZ-3C, 25% military, 21% commercial, and space programs. CZ-4B, and CZ-4C. 21% university. Most of China’s payloads from Jan- This was no fluke. If we look at It is too soon to tell for certain if uary 2011 through June 2012 have the 14 Long March missions launched the relative drop in civil and commer- been satellites weighing less than 3,000 during the second half of 2011, we see cial payloads versus the rise in military kg. Nearly two-thirds of these have that eight models were used: CZ-2C, and university payloads is a changing been launched to LEO and the rest to CZ-2D, CZ-2F, CZ-3A, CZ-3B, CZ- trend. We will have a better sense of geostationary orbit. But there are also 3B/E, CZ-3C, and CZ-4B. whether this shift will hold when we a fair number of payloads with a mass The point is that China is well po- analyze the data for the full year. of over 5,000 kg, including Apstar 7A, sitioned to dominate the international But if we take into account the Chinasat 10, Eutelsat W3C, Nigcomsat- launch market eventually—unless, of payloads launched in 2011, it does 1R, Paksat 1 commercial communica- course, the current launch services seem clear that, at the very least, mili- tions satellites, Shenzhou manned cap- paradigm is changed by pioneers such tary payloads have become more sules, and the 8,500-kg Tiangong-1 as Space Exploration Technologies prominent, commercial ones less so. space module designed to test ren- Of the 130 payloads launched last dezvous and docking capabilities for a year, 41% were civil, 27% commercial, future space station. 25% military, and 8% university. The payloads under 3,000 kg have laUnChmissions The 7% decline in commercial included a wide mix of data relay, byvehicle January-June2012 payloads and the 5% increase in mili- navigation, scientific, meteorological, Long March, China 10 tary, as well as the 3% increase in civil, geological mapping, surveillance and Proton, Russia 5 can be explained, in part, by the spike reconnaissance, asset tracking, disaster Soyuz, Russia 4 in Chinese launches—three-quarters of monitoring, ocean resources, and tech- Atlas V, U.S. 3 which were civil or military payloads. nology development satellites. They Delta IV, U.S. 3 This preponderance of civil and mili- have also come in a wide range of Ariane 5, Europe 2 Falcon 9, U.S. 1 tary payloads by the Chinese has con- sizes, including the 9-kg Tiantuo-1; the H-2, Japan 1 tinued in 2012. Of the 13 payloads 300-kg Chuangxin 1-3 and Tansuo 4; Pegasus, U.S. 1 launched by Long Marches through 1,040-kg Yaogan Weixing 15; 1,200-kg PSLV, India 1 June, 77% were civil or military. Shijian 3; 2,200-kg Beidous and Feng Safir, Iran 1 Unha, North Korea 1 China is launching very few com- Yuns; and 2,630-kg Ziyuan 3. Vega, Europe 1 mercial payloads, because it is still The diversity of China’s launch ac- Zenit Sea Launch, Russia 1 largely locked out of the commercial tivity helps explain the use of so many total 35 launch market as a result of ITAR, but (Continued on page 43) AEROSPACE AMERICA/SEPTEMBER 2012 21 SPACElayout0912_Layout 1 8/14/12 3:09 PM Page 4 Check Out How AIAA Membership Works for You! AIAA Special Benefits and Money-Saving Opportunities In addition to supporting your ( Continued from page 21) professional requirements, AIAA can different models of the Long March ve- Vega also help with your personal, financial, hicle and different launch sites, includ- and health care needs.