hydrology Article Regional Climate Change Impact on Coastal Tourism: A Case Study for the Black Sea Coast of Russia Evgeniia A. Kostianaia 1 and Andrey G. Kostianoy 1,2,* 1 P.P. Shirshov Institute of Oceanology, Russian Academy of Sciences, 36, Nakhimovsky Pr., 117997 Moscow, Russia; [email protected] 2 Laboratory for Integrated Research of Water Resources, S.Yu. Witte Moscow University, 12, Build. 1, Second Kozhukhovsky Pr., 115432 Moscow, Russia * Correspondence: [email protected] Abstract: Regional climate change is one of the key factors that should be taken into account when planning the development of the coastal tourism, including investments and construction of tourism- related infrastructure. A case study for the Black Sea coast of Russia shows a series of potential negative hydrological, meteorological, and biological factors that accompany regional warming of the Black Sea Region, that can impede the development of coastal tourism and devalue billions of dollars in investments by the State, private companies, and individuals. We discuss such natural phenomena as air and sea warming, extreme weather events, coastal upwelling, heavy rains, river plumes, wind and waves, tornado, rip currents, sea-level rise, algal bloom, introduced species, and other features characteristic for the region that seriously impact coastal tourism today, and may intensify in the nearest future. Sporadic occurrence of extreme weather events, unpleasant and sometimes dangerous sea and atmosphere phenomena during the summer tourist season, and from year to year can be of Citation: Kostianaia, E.A.; Kostianoy, critical psychological importance when choosing your next vacation and tourism destination. The A.G. Regional Climate Change Impact research does not include anthropogenic factors, geopolitical, and socio-economic processes, and the on Coastal Tourism: A Case Study for COVID-19 pandemic that play an important role in the sustainable development of coastal tourism the Black Sea Coast of Russia. Hydrology as well. 2021, 8, 133. https://doi.org/ 10.3390/hydrology8030133 Keywords: Black Sea; coastal tourism; regional climate change; warming; wind; waves; sea level rise; upwelling; heavy rain; river plume; algal bloom; introduced species Academic Editors: Tamim Younos, Tammy Parece, Juneseok Lee, Jason Giovannettone and Alaina J. Armel 1. Introduction Received: 20 July 2021 According to the UN Atlas of the Oceans [1], coastal tourism and recreation include Accepted: 31 August 2021 Published: 6 September 2021 the full range of tourism, leisure, and recreationally oriented activities that take place in the coastal zone and the offshore coastal waters such as recreational boating, cruises, Publisher’s Note: MDPI stays neutral swimming, recreational fishing, surfing, windsurfing, supping, snorkeling, diving, etc. with regard to jurisdictional claims in These include the infrastructure supporting coastal development (e.g., hotels, resorts, published maps and institutional affil- restaurants, marinas, beaches, recreational fishing facilities, shops, roads, railways, airports, iations. transportation). However, according to ECORYS [2], differentiation should be made between coastal and maritime tourism. For the purpose of this study, we shall use the definitions from [2], where coastal tourism would imply beach-based recreation activities (such as, for example, sunbathing, swimming, surfing, etc.), as well as non-beach related land-based tourism in the coastal area (this covers any recreation or tourism activities in Copyright: © 2021 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. the coastal area that require the sea to be in the proximity). Associated manufacturing This article is an open access article industries and supplies also refer to this type. At the same time, maritime tourism refers distributed under the terms and to tourism that is mostly water-based than land-based, such as, for example, cruising, conditions of the Creative Commons yachting, boating. This type also covers manufacturing of equipment, landside facilities, Attribution (CC BY) license (https:// and necessary services. creativecommons.org/licenses/by/ The primary focus of this study is the impact of climate change on coastal tourism 4.0/). rather than maritime tourism. The main purpose of tourists coming to the Black Sea coast Hydrology 2021, 8, 133. https://doi.org/10.3390/hydrology8030133 https://www.mdpi.com/journal/hydrology Hydrology 2021, 8, 133 2 of 30 of Russia is to sunbathe, swim, and snorkel, which falls under the coastal tourism category. Climate change effects seem to be able to impact coastal tourism in a more pronounced form as air and sea temperature warming, heavy precipitation and flooding, algal bloom, and introduction of alien species are expected to affect the possibility to lie on the beach, get into the water, and swim. These parameters seem to have a lesser impact on such maritime tourism activities as cruising, yachting, and boating. Coastal tourism plays an important role in the socio-economic development of many countries. For some of the countries, it was an engine for economic development, other countries successfully used coastal tourism to overcome economic crises, and for others, it is the main source of their budget revenue. We have plenty of examples in Europe: the MENA region, Southeast Asia, the Caribbean, and other parts of the world. Every country which has an exit to a warm sea invests in the development of coastal tourism, because it brings an important income into state and regional budgets, provides employment and jobs to the local population. According to different sources, in 2006, the coastal tourism industry has contributed about 10% of the total global Gross Domestic Product (GDP) [1,3,4]. In fact, in 2019, prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, the travel and tourism industry accounted for 25% of all new jobs in the world, 10.6% of all jobs (334 million), and 10.4% of global GDP (USD 9.2 trillion). At the same time, international visitor spending totaled USD 1.7 trillion in 2019 (6.8% of total exports, 27.4% of global services exports) [3]. Most of these values belong to coastal tourism because this is the preferred destination for summer vacation. The development of coastal tourism seriously impacts the coastal zone, terrestrial and marine environment, water and energy resources. Fresh and drinking water consumption, seawater, ground, air and noise pollution, plastic and microplastic pollution, untreated sewage, wastewater discharge into the sea, accumulation of waste and garbage, land degra- dation and land-use, coastal erosion, habitat and biodiversity loss, destruction of aesthetic value, and physical beauty of the coast are among the main threats caused by coastal tourism [4,5]. Uncontrolled tourism development in some cases can lead to environmental damage that can cost local populations and governments more than they would gain from the coastal tourism industry [4]. On the other hand, sustainable development of coastal tourism has the potential to create beneficial effects on the environment by raising aware- ness of environmental values, contributing to environmental protection and conservation, thus resulting in an increase in their economic importance [1]. The environment also can have both positive and negative impacts on the coastal tourism development, for exam- ple, via extreme weather events; physical, chemical, and biological processes in the sea; earthquakes and volcano eruption, and regional climate change which has been of great importance during the past 40 years, but usually ignored in strategies of coastal tourism development. All this leads to the necessity of sustainable coastal tourism management and development, which can be done, for example, in the framework of Integrated Coastal Zone Management [6], Marine Spatial Planning [7], and Maritime Clusters [8–11], which have been increasingly acknowledged as essential boosters for innovation and diversification of the Blue Economy [11]. In the Russian Federation, the Black Sea coast of Russia is the major resort area for Russian citizens, because the Arctic Seas are not taken into consideration, the Baltic Sea and the Sea of Japan are much colder, and the Sea of Azov and the Caspian Sea have a little resort area infrastructure in comparison with the Black Sea. Thus, the major coastal tourism flow is directed to the Krasnodar Krai (Region) and the Republic of Crimea (Figure1). In 2019, 17.3 million tourists visited the Krasnodar Krai, 60% of them during the summer season, and 7.43 million tourists visited Crimea. These numbers include both foreign and domestic visitors [12]. Hydrology 2021, 8, 133 3 of 30 Figure 1. Geographical map of the Northeastern Black Sea based on Maps-For-Free (https://maps-for-free.com/#close, accessed on 30 August 2021). Blue line is the Kuban River. The Greater Caucasus stretches along the Black Sea coast. The region under consideration is located between the Kerch Strait in the north and the state border with Abkhazia in the south, i.e., in the latitudinal band between 43◦230 and 45◦300 N (Figure1). For comparison, this geographical band corresponds to the Northern Adriatic Sea between Split in Croatia and Venice in Italy, or the northern part of the Ligurian Sea between Cannes in France and Genoa in Italy. Both regions in the Mediterranean Sea are well known as the best places for coastal tourism and summer vacation in the Mediterranean due to a warm climate and warm sea. The same is true for the Russian coast of the Black