Master’s Degree in Comparative International Studies Final Thesis The European Union's role as a conflict mediator: the cases of the Russo- Georgian War and the Ukrainian Crisis Supervisor Ch. Prof. Stéphanie Novak Assistant supervisor Ch. Prof. Stefano Petrungaro Graduand Francesca Pia Nista Matricolation number 870245 Academic Year 2019 / 2020 A Giulio Regeni 2 Table of Contents Abstract………………………………………………………………………….…......6 Introduction……………………………………………………………………………11 CHAPTER 1: THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK .................................. 14 1.1 INTRODUCTION .......................................................................... 14 1.2 DEFINITION OF MEDIATION ......................................................... 14 1.3 INDIVIDUALS, STATES, ORGANIZATIONS .......................................... 15 1.3.1 INDIVIDUALS ................................................................................................ 15 1.3.2 STATES ........................................................................................................ 16 1.2.1 INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATIONS .................................................................. 16 1.4 THE QUESTION OF NEUTRALITY ..................................................... 17 1.4.1 DEFINITION OF NEUTRALITY .......................................................................... 17 1.4.2 MEDIATORS’ INTERESTS ................................................................................18 1.5 STRATEGIES .............................................................................. 22 1.5.1 BARGAINING STRUCTURE ............................................................................. 22 1.5.2 CONTEXT .................................................................................................... 23 1.5.3 MEDIATOR’S ROLES ..................................................................................... 23 1.5.4 LEVERAGE ................................................................................................... 25 1.6 HOW CAN MEDIATION BE EVALUATED? .......................................... 26 1.6.1 CLASSIFICATION OF EVALUATION CRITERIA ................................................... 26 1.7 MULTIPARTY MEDIATION ............................................................ 29 1.7.1 CHARACTERISTICS OF MULTIPARTY MEDIATION ............................................. 30 1.7.2 CONTACT GROUPS ........................................................................................ 30 1.7.3 SUCCESSFUL MEDIATION? ............................................................................. 31 CHAPTER 2: THE INSTITUTIONAL FRAMEWORK ....................... 35 3 2.1 INTRODUCTION ........................................................................... 35 2.2 THE HISTORICAL EVOLUTION OF THE EUROPEAN UNION’S FOREIGN POLICY IN TERMS OF CONFLICT RESOLUTION..................................................... 37 2.3 “EUROPE’S FINEST HOUR”: THE BALKANS EXPERIENCE .................... 41 2.3 THE LISBON TREATY .................................................................. 48 2.4 LEGAL BASIS OF EU PEACE MEDIATION ........................................ 53 2.4.1 THE CONCEPT ON STRENGTHENING EU MEDIATION AND DIALOGUE CAPABILITIES ......................................................................................................... 54 2.4.2 OTHER MEDIATION INSTRUMENTS ................................................................57 2.5 THE BELGRADE-PRISTINA DIALOGUE ........................................... 60 2.5.1 ASSESSMENT ............................................................................................... 62 2.5.2 LEVERAGE .................................................................................................. 63 2.5.3 MEDIATION STRATEGIES ............................................................................. 63 2.5.4 COHERENCE ............................................................................................... 66 2.5.5 CONTEXT .................................................................................................... 66 2.6 CONCLUSION ............................................................................ 68 3. CASE STUDIES: THE RUSSO-GEORGIAN WAR OF 2008 AND THE UKRAINIAN CONFLICT OF 2014 ........................................... 70 3.1 INTRODUCTION ......................................................................... 70 3.2 THE EUROPEAN NEIGHBOURHOOD POLICY AND THE EASTERN PARTNERSHIP ................................................................................... 71 3.2.1. ENP INSTRUMENTS .................................................................................... 74 3.2.2. APPROACHES TO CONFLICT RESOLUTION IN THE ENP .................................. 76 3.2.3 THE EUROPEAN SECURITY STRATEGY ........................................................... 77 3.2.4 THE EASTERN PARTNERSHIP ....................................................................... 78 3.2.5 THE REVISED ENP ..................................................................................... 79 3.3 THE RUSSO-GEORGIAN CONFLICT OF 2008 ................................... 81 3.3.1 CONFLICT CONTEXT .................................................................................... 82 3.3.2 EU-GEORGIA RELATIONS BEFORE THE CRISIS .............................................. 84 3.3.3 THE ROSE REVOLUTION .............................................................................. 85 3.3.4 THE NATO BUCHAREST SUMMIT AND ESCAALTION OF THE CONFLICT ........... 86 4 3.3.5 THE MEDIATED CEASEFIRE .......................................................................... 89 3.3.6 GENEVA INTERNATIONAL DISCUSSION (GID) ................................................ 91 3.3.7 MEDIATION STRATEGIES ............................................................................. 94 3.3.8 COHERENCE ............................................................................................... 97 3.3.9 POST-CONFLICT RELATIONS WITH EUROPE ................................................... 99 3.3.10 CONCLUSION ............................................................................................. 99 3.4 THE UKRAINIAN CONFLICT OF 2014 ........................................... 102 3.4.1 EU-UKRAINE RELATIONS BEFORE THE CRISIS............................................. 102 3.4.2 THE ASSOCIATION AGREEMENT AND EUROMAIDAN .................................... 104 3.4.3 CRIMEA’S ANNEXATION AND THE OUTBREAK IN EASTERN UKRAINE ............ 106 3.4.4 THE AZOV CRISIS ...................................................................................... 108 3.4.5 EU RESPONSE TO THE CRISIS ..................................................................... 109 3.4.5.1 ASSOCIATION AGREEMENT ...................................................................... 109 3.4.5.2 SANCTIONS ............................................................................................. 110 3.4.7.3 EU MISSION TO UKRAINE .........................................................................111 3.4.7.4 DIPLOMATIC AND MEDIATION EFFORTS..................................................... 112 3.4.7.5 THE GENEVA GROUP ............................................................................... 112 3.4.7.6 MINSK I .................................................................................................. 113 3.4.7.7 MINSK II AND THE (FAILED) IMPLEMENTATION ......................................... 115 3.4.7.8 THE STEINMEIER FORMULA .................................................................... 117 3.4.7.9 WHAT WENT WRONG IN THE MINSK AGREEMENTS? .................................. 118 3.4.8 WHAT ROLE FOR THE EUROPEAN UNION IN THE PEACE TALKS? .................... 121 3.4.8.1 MEDIATION STRATEGIES .......................................................................... 123 3.4.9 COHERENCE .............................................................................................. 125 3.5 CONCLUSION ........................................................................... 125 3.6 FINAL CONSIDERATIONS: A COMPARATIVE STUDY OF THE CASES ........ 127 Conclusion……………………………………………………………………………………………..130 BIBLIOGRAPHY: ......................................................................... 134 5 Abstract In questa tesi è stato preso in esame il ruolo che l’Unione Europea ha nella mediazione dei conflitti internazionali, partendo dalla definizione di cosa sia la mediazione dei conflitti, definendo il quadro istituzionale in cui l’Unione Europea opera in qualità di mediatore, e infine, analizzando nel particolare i casi del conflitto Russo-Georgiano del 2008 e della crisi Ucraina post-Maidan del 2014. I due conflitti hanno rappresentato una questione importante negli equilibri geopolitici all'interno del continente europeo, e in particolare in relazione diretta con gli obiettivi della politica estera europea, che si basa sui principi del mantenimento della pace, della prevenzione dei conflitti e del rafforzamento della sicurezza internazionale. La Georgia e l'Ucraina fanno parte del Partenariato orientale, l'iniziativa di cooperazione multilaterale nell'ambito della politica europea di vicinato, il cui obiettivo è quello di costruire una cooperazione efficace tra l'UE e i suoi vicini orientali in termini politici, socioeconomici e di sicurezza. Il caso georgiano rappresenta il "primo grande caso in cui l'UE ha dovuto sviluppare una vera e propria politica estera, utilizzando strumenti diversi da quelli dell'allargamento" (Lynch, 2008, citato