Understanding Forest of Dean 2015 Produced by the Strategic Needs Analysis Team, Gloucestershire County Council Version: v1.0 Contents 1. Introduction ................................................................................................................ 3 2. Executive summary .................................................................................................... 4 3. Forest of Dean context ............................................................................................. 10 3.1 About this section ................................................................................................. 10 3.2 Demographics ....................................................................................................... 10 3.3 Deprivation ........................................................................................................... 18 3.4 Life expectancy ..................................................................................................... 26 3.5 Mortality ................................................................................................................ 28 3.6 Economy ............................................................................................................... 31 3.7 Protected characteristics ....................................................................................... 50 3.8 Key messages ...................................................................................................... 57 4. Getting the right start in life ....................................................................................... 59 4.1 About this section ................................................................................................. 59 4.2 Maternity ............................................................................................................... 59 4.3 Sexual health ........................................................................................................ 61 4.4 Maintaining a healthy weight in childhood ............................................................. 63 4.5 Education .............................................................................................................. 66 4.6 Promoting the welfare of children and Safeguarding ............................................. 83 4.7 Key messages ...................................................................................................... 87 5. Keeping healthy – prevention ................................................................................... 88 5.1 About this section ................................................................................................. 88 5.2 Alcohol .................................................................................................................. 88 5.3 Smoking ................................................................................................................ 89 5.4 Maintaining a healthy weight in adults ................................................................... 90 5.5 Social Isolation ...................................................................................................... 91 5.6 Key messages ...................................................................................................... 97 6. Particular Needs ....................................................................................................... 98 6.1 About this section ................................................................................................. 98 6.2 Disability ............................................................................................................... 98 6.3 Mental health ...................................................................................................... 112 6.4 Long-term conditions .......................................................................................... 113 6.5 Dementia ............................................................................................................ 115 6.6 Service use profile – community based care ....................................................... 117 6.7 Service use profile – residential and nursing care ............................................... 118 6.8 Place of death ..................................................................................................... 120 1 6.9 Key messages .................................................................................................... 121 7. Healthy and Sustainable Places and Communities ................................................. 123 7.1 About this section ............................................................................................... 123 7.2 Community Assets .............................................................................................. 123 7.3 Carers ................................................................................................................. 124 7.4 Volunteering........................................................................................................ 127 7.5 Culture and Leisure ............................................................................................. 129 7.6 Transport ............................................................................................................ 132 7.7 Housing .............................................................................................................. 135 7.8 Education ............................................................................................................ 151 7.9 Unemployment .................................................................................................... 151 7.10 Community Safety............................................................................................... 151 7.11 Key messages .................................................................................................... 155 2 1. Introduction Understanding Forest of Dean has been produced to provide an understanding of the district and its communities. It looks at the needs of communities and how we expect them to change in the future and assesses current and future health and social care needs of the residents of the Forest of Dean. The report is part of a suite of documents, which also includes; Understanding Cheltenham, Understanding Cotswold, Understanding Gloucester, Understanding Stroud, Understanding Tewkesbury and Understanding Gloucestershire – A Joint Strategic Needs Analysis. Where possible the documents follow a similar structure to one another, although difficulties in obtaining some data at district level means Understanding Gloucestershire – A Joint Strategic Needs Analysis, features some topics that are not available in the other reports. For any feedback please contact the Strategic Needs Analysis Team: [email protected] 3 2. Executive summary Forest of Dean context Between 2004 and 2014, the population of Forest Dean District grew by 2,600 people to around 83,700. This represents an average annual growth rate of 0.32%, well below the Gloucestershire and England averages of 0.68% and 0.80% respectively. However, the annual growth rate in this period for the district’s older population (3.32%) was much higher than for Gloucestershire and England. The population of younger people (aged 0-64) actually fell between 2004 and 2014. Projections suggest that the Forest of Dean population will grow to 86,800 by 2025 and 89,900 by 2037. Again, projected overall growth rates are lower for the Forest of Dean than for Gloucestershire and England as a whole. The projected percentage increase of the older population in the Forest of Dean is inline with that of Gloucestershire between 2012 and 2037 (up 72.6% compared to 72.2%). The migration pattern since 2004 has been closely linked to the inflow from East European countries. This has resulted in the ‘White Other’ population in Forest of Dean District increasing between 2001 and 2011, from 730 to 1,200. The ‘White other’ group now accounts for 1.5% of the district population, compared to 0.9% in 2001. The Black and Minority Ethnic (BME) population was also 1.5% of the total District population in 2011, low compared to the county as a whole. In general, Forest of Dean District displays average levels of deprivation in relation to the rest of England. Out of the 13 LSOAs in Gloucestershire that rank in the top 20% most deprived nationally, one is located in Forest of Dean district – Cinderford West. The population of the Forest of Dean District is most deprived in relation to the ‘Barriers to Housing and Services’ domain of deprivation. Females in the Forest of Dean can generally expect to live around 4 years longer than their male counterparts. Overall, life expectancy for both men and women has been steadily increasing in the district over the past decade. Over this period, life expectancy has been slightly lower for Forest of Dean residents than the county average, and generally slightly higher than the national average. Males in the least deprived Forest of Dean decile (10th of population) can expect to live 2-3 years longer than those in the most deprived decile. For females, the gap is nearly 5 years. Over the past decade, deprived males and un-deprived males and females have seen an increase in life expectancy. However, for deprived females there has been little change over the period 4 and the gap in life expectancy between them