DRAFT ALTERNATIVES ANALYSIS SUMMARY & UPDATE Rail to UBC Rapid Transit Study Our File: 2121-00342-00 | January 2019 Project Partners: Submitted to: University of British Columbia TransLink City of Vancouver 400 – 287 Nelson’s Court New Westminster, BC V3L 0E7 Prepared By: Contact: In Partnership With: McElhanney Consulting Services Ltd. Basse Clement, PEng, MASc WSP Global Inc. 200 – 858 Beatty Street Strategic Transportation Planning Division Manager Mott MacDonald Group Vancouver BC, V6B 1C1 Thurber Engineering Ltd. DRAFT January 18th, 2019 TransLink – Planning and Policy 400 – 287 Nelson’s Court New Westminster, BC V3L 0E7 Attention: Brian Soland, Senior Planner RAIL TO UBC RAPID TRANSIT STUDY – ALTERNATIVES ANALYSIS SUMMARY & UPDATE As requested, we have prepared a revised summary report for this stage of the Rail to UBC Rapid Transit Study with feedback from TransLink, UBC, City of Vancouver, and Ministry of Transportation and Infrastructure. In this report, we provide a review of background studies and reports that have been conducted to date including a review of contextual elements since the previous evaluation in 2012. We also provide a summary of land use and demographics within the study area as well as a review of best practices in rapid transit planning elsewhere and then a suggested simplified method for evaluation of rapid transit alternatives. We provide updated ridership forecasts and cost estimates for each of the three rapid transit alternatives. For this revised report, we have included Part 2 which expands on some of the outstanding questions that came up during Part 1 of this study. Drawing upon this context, Part 3 provides a summary of findings with an analysis of trade-offs amongst the three preferred technology and alignment alternatives: Modified LRT 1, Combo 1, and RRT. We trust you will find this summary of our review meets the requirements as set out in the scope of work. Please contact us if you have any questions or require any clarification. Sincerely, MCELHANNEY CONSULTING SERVICES LTD. DRAFT DRAFT Basse Clement, PEng, MASc Bernard Abelson, PEng, MEng, TOPS Strategic Transportation Planning Division Manager Branch Manager, Project Engineer cc: Adam Hyslop, Transportation Planner, The University of British Columbia, Campus + Community Planning 200-858 Beatty Street Tel 604 683 8521 Vancouver BC Fax 855 407 3895 Canada V6B 1C1 www.mcelhanney.com DRAFT REPORT CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY .................................................................................................................. I PART 1: INITIAL REVIEW .................................................................................. 1 1. INTRODUCTION & PROJECT BACKGROUND ..................................................................... 2 1.1 Regional & Broadway / 10th Avenue Perspective..........................................................................2 1.2 Previous Studies ...........................................................................................................................7 1.3 Current Study Purpose ............................................................................................................... 10 1.4 Report Outline ............................................................................................................................ 11 2. REVIEW OF PROJECT DEFINITION & BUSINESS CASE MATERIALS ............................ 12 2.1 Summary of Previous Planning & MAE ...................................................................................... 12 2.2 Review of Phase 2 Evaluation ................................................................................................... 13 2.3 Best Practices in Rapid Transit Planning Evaluation ................................................................. 15 3. CONTEXTUAL ELEMENTS ................................................................................................. 18 3.1 Review of KPMG and ULI Reports ............................................................................................. 18 3.2 Socio-Economic Context ............................................................................................................ 19 3.3 Policy Context ............................................................................................................................ 25 3.4 Land Use Context ....................................................................................................................... 26 3.5 Demographics ............................................................................................................................ 27 4. RAPID TRANSIT PLANNING BEST PRACTICES & BENCHMARKS ............................... 29 4.1 Case Study 1: Toronto Eglinton Crosstown Western Extension ................................................ 29 4.2 Case Study 2: Ottawa Confederation Line ................................................................................. 31 4.3 Case Study 3: Waterloo ION LRT .............................................................................................. 33 4.4 Case Study 4: Los Angeles Purple Line Extension .................................................................... 35 4.5 Key Findings from Other Jurisdictions and Projects .................................................................. 37 5. BENCHMARKING SURFACE RUNNING LRT ..................................................................... 40 5.1 Benchmarks for Headway, Speed & Capacity ........................................................................... 40 6. REVIEW DELIVERABILITY OF LRT SPEED AND CAPACITY ........................................... 47 6.1 Methodology, Assumptions & Limitations .................................................................................. 47 6.2 Operating Model Outputs ........................................................................................................... 51 6.3 Maximum Capacity ..................................................................................................................... 53 7. LRT PROPERTY AND OMC REQUIREMENTS ................................................................... 55 7.1 Right-of-Way Analysis ................................................................................................................ 55 7.2 Maintenance Facility Potential Footprint .................................................................................... 56 7.3 OMC Location Considerations ................................................................................................... 56 8. REVIEW OF RIDERSHIP AND COSTS ................................................................................ 59 8.1 Updated Ridership Forecasts ..................................................................................................... 59 8.2 Updated Cost Estimates............................................................................................................. 89 9. MODE SHARE TARGETS .................................................................................................... 94 9.1 Meeting Mode Share Targets ..................................................................................................... 94 PART 2: ADDITIONAL REVIEW AND ANALYSIS ........................................... 98 10 REVIEW OF ADDITIONAL LRT SCENARIOS ..................................................................... 99 10.1 Alignment & Operating Assumptions ......................................................................................... 99 10.2 Capacity & Ridership Outcomes .............................................................................................. 101 11. REVIEW OF ALTERNATE UBC ENROLLMENT SCENARIO ........................................... 114 11.1 Alternate Enrollment Assumption ............................................................................................. 114 11.2 Revised Ridership Forecasts ................................................................................................... 115 12. UBC STATION CAPACITY REVIEW ................................................................................. 116 DRAFT 12.1 Benchmarking Similar Stations Elsewhere .............................................................................. 116 12.2 UBC Station Requirements ...................................................................................................... 118 13. OPPORTUNITIES FOR BEST BUS SERVICE .................................................................. 120 13.1 Features of Current Service ..................................................................................................... 120 13.2 Consideration of Enhanced Service ......................................................................................... 121 14. DEVELOPMENT OF PARTIALLY ELEVATED SKYTRAIN ............................................... 123 14.1 Methodology and Assumptions ................................................................................................ 123 14.2 Guideway Plan and Profile with Stations ................................................................................. 124 14.3 Cost Implications ...................................................................................................................... 124 PART 3: SUMMARY OF FINDINGS ............................................................... 128 15. SUMMARY OF FINDINGS .................................................................................................