MSc Thesis Water Scarcity: Trigger for Conflict or Cooperation A case study on the Euphrates & Tigris river basin Faculty of Disaster Studies, Wageningen University, August 2009 1 Author: S.Pz. van Weezel Supervisor: Dr. J.F. Warner Type of work: MSc Thesis Date: August, 2009 Course code: RDS 80733 Total credits: 33 Author name: Stijn Paulszoon van Weezel Registration number: 850211-935-040 Study program: International Development Studies Supervisor: Dr. J.F. Warner University: Wageningen University and Research Centre Group: Faculty of Disaster Studies Address: Hollandseweg 1 6706 KN Wageningen the Netherlands Second reader: P.A. van Hooft, MSc University: University of Amsterdam Group: Amsterdam School for Social Science Research Address: Kloveniersburgwal 48 1012 CX Amsterdam the Netherlands 2 Content 1. Introduction.......................................................................................................................................5 2. Methodology.....................................................................................................................................8 2.1 Introduction................................................................................................................................8 2.2 Focus and purpose of the research.............................................................................................8 2.3 Case Selection............................................................................................................................8 2.4 Research Question......................................................................................................................9 2.4.1 Research methodology; Literature Study...........................................................................9 2.4.2 Research methodology: Model Analysis..........................................................................10 2.4.3 Research methodology: Scenario Analysis.......................................................................11 3. Theoretical Background..................................................................................................................13 3.1 Defining water scarcity............................................................................................................13 3.2 How the environment can cause conflict.................................................................................15 3.2.1 Toronto..............................................................................................................................16 3.2.2 Zürich: Environment & Conflict Project..........................................................................18 3.2.3 Oslo: Peace Research Institute Oslo.................................................................................19 3.2.4 GECHS.............................................................................................................................20 3.3 Water; the new oil?..................................................................................................................22 3.4 Triggering and Inhibiting factors.............................................................................................26 4.The Euphrates-Tigris river basin.....................................................................................................27 4.1.1 Introduction.......................................................................................................................27 4.1.2 The river system ...............................................................................................................27 4.1.2 Euphrates..........................................................................................................................27 4.1.4 Tigris ...............................................................................................................................28 4.1.5 Climate.............................................................................................................................29 4.2 The riparians ...........................................................................................................................29 4.2.1 Iraq...................................................................................................................................29 4.2.2 Syria.................................................................................................................................30 4.2.3 Turkey...............................................................................................................................30 4.3 Historical overview on conflict and cooperation.....................................................................31 4.4 the Kurdish question...............................................................................................................32 4.5 Current perceptions.................................................................................................................33 5. Setting the scene: development and trends towards 2050...............................................................34 5.1 Introduction..............................................................................................................................34 5.2 World population prospects.................................................................................................35 5.2.1 Iraq...............................................................................................................................35 5.2.2 Syria............................................................................................................................36 5.2.3 Turkey..........................................................................................................................36 5.3 Economic outlook...............................................................................................................37 5.3.1 Iraq...............................................................................................................................38 5.3.2 Syria............................................................................................................................38 5.3.3 Turkey..........................................................................................................................38 5.4 State of the environment.....................................................................................................39 5.5 Water resources........................................................................................................................40 5.6 Scenarios: shaping the possible pathways................................................................................41 5.6.1 Business as Usual.............................................................................................................42 5.6.2 Turkish Century...............................................................................................................43 3 5.6.3 the Coming Anarchy.......................................................................................................44 5.6.4 New Caliphate .................................................................................................................45 6. Analysis: the possible outcomes by 2030-2050..............................................................................46 6.1 Introduction..............................................................................................................................46 6.2 The triggering and inhibiting factors.......................................................................................46 6.3 Outcome of the scenarios.........................................................................................................50 7. Conclusions.....................................................................................................................................55 8. Discussion.......................................................................................................................................56 Acknowledgements.............................................................................................................................57 References...........................................................................................................................................58 Annex A: Environmental Security Theories......................................................................................62 Toronto...........................................................................................................................................62 Zürich: Environment & Conflict Project.......................................................................................66 Oslo: Peace Research Institute Oslo..............................................................................................69 Irvine: Global Environmental Change and Human Security.........................................................70 Annex B: Euphrates-Tigris river basin...............................................................................................72 Euphrates...................................................................................................................................72 Tigris.........................................................................................................................................73 Climate......................................................................................................................................74