PROFECY – Processes, Features and Cycles of Inner Peripheries in Europe (Inner Peripheries: national territories facing challenges of access to basic services of general interest) Applied Research Final Report Annex 8. Analysis of inner peripherality in Europe Version 07/12/2017 This applied research activity is conducted within the framework of the ESPON 2020 Cooperation Programme, partly financed by the European Regional Development Fund. The ESPON EGTC is the Single Beneficiary of the ESPON 2020 Cooperation Programme. The Single Operation within the programme is implemented by the ESPON EGTC and co-financed by the European Regional Development Fund, the EU Member States and the Partner States, Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway and Switzerland. This delivery does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the members of the ESPON 2020 Monitoring Committee. Authors Gergely Tagai, Annamária Uzzoli, Bálint Koós, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies, Hungarian Academy of Sciences (Hungary) Mar Ortega-Reig, Hèctor del Alcàzar, Institute for Local Development, University of Valencia (Spain) Advisory Group Project Support Team: Barbara Acreman and Zaira Piazza (Italy), Eedi Sepp (Estonia), Zsolt Szokolai, European Commission. ESPON EGTC: Marjan van Herwijnen (Project Expert), Laurent Frideres (HoU E&O), Ilona Raugze (Director), Piera Petruzzi (Outreach), Johannes Kiersch (Financial Expert). Information on ESPON and its projects can be found on www.espon.eu. The web site provides the possibility to download and examine the most recent documents produced by finalised and ongoing ESPON projects. This delivery exists only in an electronic version. © ESPON, 2017 Printing, reproduction or quotation is authorised provided the source is acknowledged and a copy is forwarded to the ESPON EGTC in Luxembourg. Contact: [email protected] PROFECY – Processes, Features and Cycles of Inner Peripheries in Europe Table of contents List of Figures ............................................................................................................................ iii List of Maps ............................................................................................................................... ix List of Tables ............................................................................................................................. xi Abbreviations ........................................................................................................................... xiv 1 Introduction ........................................................................................................................ 1 1.1 Aims and tasks of analysis ........................................................................................ 1 1.2 Database of research tasks ...................................................................................... 2 1.2.1 Selection of regional typologies used in the analysis ...................................... 2 1.2.2 Presentation of socio-economic data used ...................................................... 6 1.2.3 Processing territorial units into analyses ......................................................... 8 1.3 Inner peripheries and areas at risk of becoming peripheral ...................................... 9 2 Analysing geographies of European inner peripheries compared to regional typologies on other territorial realities ............................................................................................... 11 2.1 Overlap between inner peripheries and EU regional typologies ............................. 11 2.2 Overlap between inner peripheries and EU lagging regions .................................. 31 2.3 Summary findings ................................................................................................... 38 3 Analysing characteristics of IPs in comparison with other regional typologies and lagging areas ................................................................................................................................ 42 3.1 Methodological considerations for the analysis and the interpretation of results ... 42 3.2 Database of analysis ............................................................................................... 44 3.3 Detailed analysis of the status of inner peripheries ................................................ 45 3.3.1 Demographic status ....................................................................................... 45 3.3.2 Labour market status ..................................................................................... 57 3.3.3 Economic performance status ....................................................................... 72 3.3.4 Entrepreneurship status ................................................................................. 84 3.3.5 Status in density of SGI ................................................................................. 94 3.4 Summary findings ................................................................................................. 104 4 Following changes of socio-economic characteristics of inner peripheries over time .. 106 4.1 Methodological considerations .............................................................................. 106 4.1.1 Analysing shifts of socio-economic status of inner peripheries within a period of time .......................................................................................................... 106 4.1.2 Analysing socio-economic dynamics of inner peripheries ........................... 107 4.1.3 Database of analysis .................................................................................... 108 4.2 Demographic tendencies ...................................................................................... 109 4.3 Labour market tendencies ..................................................................................... 119 4.4 Economic tendencies ............................................................................................ 131 4.5 Summary findings ................................................................................................. 139 5 Analysing the socio-economic status of European inner peripheries compared to economic characteristics and relative location within the framework of core–periphery patterns .......................................................................................................................... 142 5.1 Comparison of inner periphery’s characteristics regarding general accessibility patterns in comparison to lagging areas and EU typologies ................................. 142 5.2 Analysis of the relation of accessibility factors with other spatial and socio- economic characteristics in inner peripheral and European regions .................... 145 5.2.1 Analysis of the relation of accessibility indicators ........................................ 145 5.2.2 Analysis of the relation of SGI accessibility indicators with selected socio- economic characteristics .............................................................................. 150 ESPON 2020 i 5.3 Summary findings ................................................................................................. 166 6 Experimental analysis on characterising regional and socio-economic profiles of inner peripheral regions .......................................................................................................... 168 6.1 Exploratory investigation based on cluster analysis ............................................. 168 6.2 Introduction of qualitative comparative analysis (QCA) in the investigation of socio- economic typology of inner peripheries ................................................................ 177 6.3 Summary findings ................................................................................................. 179 7 Experiments refining the interpretation of status of inner peripheries ........................... 180 7.1 Comparison between the demographic status of inner peripheries and other regional typologies by the exclusion of overlapping cases ................................... 180 7.2 Analysing the degree of IP coverage and its relationship with socio-economic aspects .................................................................................................................. 188 References ............................................................................................................................ 199 ESPON 2020 ii List of Figures Figure 1.1: Lagging region typologies used in ESPON PROFECY project .............................. 5 Figure 1.2: Inner peripheries counted by different types and by the ‘union’ of different delineations ................................................................................................................................ 9 Figure 3.1: The interpretation of a box plot chart .................................................................... 43 Figure 3.2: Ratio of child age (0-14) population in Europe by IP delineations and EU regional typologies, 2015....................................................................................................................... 46 Figure 3.3: Ratio of working age (15–64) population in Europe by IP delineations and EU regional typologies, 2015 ......................................................................................................... 50 Figure 3.4: Old age dependency rate in Europe by IP delineations and EU regional typologies, 2015