Revisiting Natural Resources in the Middle East and North Africa Edited by Luigi Narbone © European University Institute, 2020 Editorial matter and selection © Luigi Narbone, 2020 Chapters © authors individually 2020. This text may be downloaded only for personal research purposes. Any additional reproduction for other purposes, whether in hard copies or electronically, requires the consent of the Robert Schuman Centre for Advanced Studies. If cited or quoted, reference should be made to the full name of the author(s), editor(s), the title, the year and the publisher. Views expressed in this publication reflect the opinion of individual authors and not those of the European University Institute. Published by European University Institute (EUI) Via dei Roccettini 9, I-50014 San Domenico di Fiesole (FI) Italy doi:10.2870/082270 ISBN:978-92-9084-953-7 © Artwork: Schutterstock: corlaffra Revisiting Natural Resources in the Middle East and North Africa Edited by: Luigi Narbone Table of Content Contributors i Introduction Luigi Narbone iv Section 1 - The Geopolitics of Natural Resources The Geopolitics of Renewable Energy Transitions in the MENA Eckart Woertz 1 Lebanon’s Hydrocarbons: Geopolitical Challenges Facing a Nascent Sector Laury Haytayan 9 The Impacts of Climate Change and Sanctions on Iran’s Water-Food Security Nexus Tamer Badawi 19 Phosphate Geopolitics: Revised EU Legislation and its Impact on EU-North Africa Relations Amine Ghoulidi 29 Section 2 - Natural Resources, Conflict, and Security Rebel Oil Companies and Wartime Economic Governance in the MENA Ariel I. Ahram 37 Conflicts in the MENA Region – What Role Do National and Imported Water Shortages Play? Karen Meijer, Susanne Schmeier, and Ruben Dahm 47 Desalination in Saudi Arabia: Assessing Critical Infrastructure Vulnerabilities Robert Mogielnicki 63 Section 3 - The Political Economy of Natural Resources The Impact of Mining on Local Communities: The Case of Jordan Rami Alrawashdeh 73 The Role of Civil Society in Resolving the Natural Resources Crisis in Tunisia Manel Ben Achour 86 Conclusion Making Sense of the Changing Role of Natural Resources in the Middle East and North Africa Luigi Narbone and Hood Ahmed 98 CONTRIBUTORS Luigi Narbone is Director of the Middle East Direc- tions on reputational risks and security threats par- tions Programme at the Robert Schuman Centre for ticularly linked to their operations in Africa and the Advanced Studies as well as coordinator of the Peace Middle East. Amine is a Fulbright Scholar and has two and Security cluster at the School of Transnational Master’s degrees in geopolitics and conflict analysis Governance, European University Institute. Previous- from King’s College London and the American Uni- ly, he was Ambassador, Head of the EU Delegation to versity in Washington, DC, respectively. Saudi Arabia, and non-resident Ambassador to Qatar, Oman, Bahrain, the UAE and Kuwait and has held Ariel I. Ahram is associate professor at the Virginia several positions in foreign affairs in the EU and the Tech School of Public and International Affairs. His UN. His main research interests are in MENA geopoli- latest books are War and Conflict in the Middle East tics, security and political economy, Gulf studies and and North Africa (Polity, 2020) and Break All the peace-building. Borders: Separatism and the Reshaping of the Middle East (Oxford, 2019). Eckart Woertz is director of the Institute for Middle East Studies (IMES) at the German Institute for Global Karen Meijer is a senior researcher at Deltares – an and Area Studies (GIGA) in Hamburg and professor independent research institute on water and subsoil in for contemporary history and politics of the Middle the Netherlands. Her research focuses on societal and East at the University of Hamburg. Previously he held environmental impacts of water management policies, positions at the Barcelona Centre for International and the role of institutional and economic factors in Affairs (CIDOB), Sciences Po in Paris, Princeton Uni- determining human responses to water shortage. versity, and the Gulf Research Center in Dubai and worked for banks in Germany and the United Arab Susanne Schmeier is a senior lecturer at IHE Delft Emirates in equity and fixed income trading. – Institute for Water Education in the Netherlands. Her research focuses on environmental and natural Laury Haytayan is an oil and gas governance and geo- resources conflict and cooperation, with a particular politics expert. She is the MENA director at the Natural focus on water resources, and the legal and institution- Resource Governance Institute. She played a leading al factors that enable cooperative management. Prior role in establishing the MENA Oil & Gas Knowledge to joining IHE Delft, she worked for the German de- Hub in Lebanon in 2014 and the Lebanese Coalition velopment cooperation agency, GIZ, the Mekong River for Good Governance in Oil and Gas in 2018. She has Commission, the World Bank and other international several publications on oil and gas in Lebanon and the organizations. Eastern Mediterranean and is a regular on TV shows and serves as resource for media outlets. She holds a Ruben Dahm is a senior researcher at Deltares – an master’s in Middle East politics from the University independent research institute on water and subsoil of Exeter and a B.A. in communication arts from the in the Netherlands. His research focuses on water Lebanese American University. resources, particularly flood and drought risk, and the role of climate in societal stability and conflicts. Tamer Badawi is an analyst of Iranian foreign policy. He was previously affiliated with the School of Trans- Robert Mogielnicki is a resident scholar at the Arab national Governance in the European University Gulf States Institute in Washington, where he oversees Institute in Fiesole as a Policy Leader Fellow (resident) the institute’s political economy research. He manages and he was prior to that affiliated with the Al Sharq a long-term research series, “Next Gen Gulf,” that Forum in Istanbul as a Research Fellow (resident). explores how advanced technologies shape Gulf Arab governments and economies. His published work has Amine Ghoulidi is a PhD candidate at King’s College appeared in Foreign Policy, The Banker, Axios, Cairo London researching the geopolitics of critical minerals Review of Global Affairs, and the LSE Middle East and European security. A career political risk consult- Centre. He holds a DPhil degree from the University of ant, Amine advised leading multinational corpora- Oxford’s Magdalen College. ii CONTRIBUTORS Rami Alrawashdeh is a Professor in the Department of Mining and Mineral Engineering, College of Engi- neering at Al-Hussein Bin Talal University in Jordan. He teaches courses related to mining engineering, mine management and economics, renewable energy management, project management and engineering economics. He received his PhD in Mineral Man- agement and Economics from Curtin University of Technology at Australia in 2007. He had his master’s degree in mining engineering from the Wollongong University at Australia in 2003. He was the Head of the Department of Mining and Mineral Engineering from September 2017 to September 2018. His research interests include phosphate market analysis, engineer- ing management, project management, engineering economics and socio economics impact of mining. Manel Ben Achour is a program coordinator at the I Watch Organization in Tunisia. I Watch works on fighting corruption and enhancing transparency in Tunisia. Hood Ahmed is a research assistant at the Middle East Directions Programme of the Robert Schuman Centre for Advanced Studies at the European University Institute in Florence, Italy. He has a master's degree in comparative politics from the London School of Economics. iii CONTRIBUTORS INTRODUCTION Luigi Narbone Since the times of the colonial scramble in the 19th and to the normalisation of illicit economic activities. Even early 20th centuries, natural resources have played a in several of the states not hit by conflicts, which have central role in the history of modern Middle East and often witnessed a reconsolidation of authoritarianism, North Africa (MENA). The region’s rich endowment internal political and economic challenges and a of natural resources, and particularly the abundance of volatile regional and global context have hindered fossil fuels, has been a factor contributing to the shaping central state governance and put into question the of the state system and regional order in post-colonial viability of the old social contract. times. It has also marked MENA’s national and regional Once more, the role of natural resources in fuelling economic structures, its political economies and the many of these dynamics and trends has been key. State way the region has integrated into the global economy. and non-state actors have clashed over the control Moreover, while hydrocarbons have brought income of oil or greater access to resources. Armed militias and wealth to the region, they have created rentier have survived through resource plundering, while economies and have contributed to consolidating strategic energy objectives have fuelled the geopolitical authoritarianism and patrimonialism in the region, confrontation between regional and international which has hindered the development of participatory actors. and accountable governance. Autocratic governments in the region have produced and perpetuated a very This ebook developed out of the Conflicts“ and Natural