RUSSIAN POWER STRUCTURES – PRESENT AND FUTURE ROLES IN RUSSIAN POLITICS Russian Power Structures - Present and Future Roles in Russian Politics R This report scrutinises the present and future roles of the Russian power structures in Russian politics and the functions that these u s power structures fill in Russia. Eight leading experts in various s i a fields analyse different aspects of Russian power structures and n JAN LEIJONHIELM & FREDRIK WEstERLUND (Eds.) their impact on Russian politics. P o w e The report is based on material from the conference “Russian r Power Structures – Present and Future Roles in Russian Politics”, S t r which was organised by the Swedish Defence Research Agency u c t (FOI) in cooperation with the Swedish Defence Commission and u r held in Stockholm on 17 October 2007. The report consists of e s papers presented at the conference and, reflecting the structure of the conference, the report consists of five parts: Russian Power Structures and Politics, The Military Agenda, Economy and Military Industry, Health Problems and a Summing up. Jan Leijonhielm & Fredrik Westerlund (Eds.) For a selection on other recent FOI-reports on Russia, please look at the last pages of this report. FOI, Swedish Defence Research Agency, is a mainly assignment-funded agency under the Ministry of Defence. The core activities are research, method and technology development, as well as studies conducted in the interests of Swedish defence and the safety and security of society. The organisation employs approximately 1000 personnel of whom about 800 are scientists. This makes FOI Sweden’s largest research institute. FOI gives its customers access to leading-edge expertise in a large number of fields such as security policy studies, defence and security related analyses, the assessment of various types of threat, systems for control and management of crises, protection against and management of hazardous substances, IT security and the potential offered by new sensors. FOI Swedish Defence Research Agency Phone: +46 8 55 50 30 00 www.foi.se FOI-R--2437--SE Base Data report Defence Analysis Defence Analysis Fax +46 8 55 50 31 00 ISSN 1650-1942 December 2007 SE-164 90 Stockholm Jan Leijonhielm & Fredrik Westerlund (Eds.) Russian Power Structures - Present and Future Roles in Russian Politics Division for Defence Analysis Swedish Defence Research Agency (FOI) Titel Ryska maktstrukturer – deras roll i den ryska politiken idag och imorgon Title Russian Power Structures – Present and Future Roles in Russian Politics Rapportnr/Report no FOI-R—2437—SE Rapporttyp Underlagsrapport Report Type Base Data report Månad/Month December Utgivningsår/Year 2007 Antal sidor/Pages 197 p ISSN Kund/Customer Försvarsdepartementet/Ministry of Defence, Sweden Forskningsområde 1. Analys av säkerhet och sårbarhet Programme area 1. Security, safety and vulnerability analysis Delområde 11 Forskning för regeringens behov Subcategory 11 Policy Support to the Government. Projektnr/Project no A12001 Godkänd av/Approved by Mike Winnerstig FOI, Totalförsvarets Forskningsinstitut FOI, Swedish Defence Research Agency Avdelningen för Försvarsanalys Division for Defence Analysis 164 90 Stockholm 2 ABSTRACT This report scrutinises the present and future roles of the Russian power struc- tures in Russian politics and the functions that these power structures fill in Russia. Eight leading experts in various fields analyse different aspects of Russian power structures and their impact on Russian politics. The report is based on material from the conference “Russian Power Structures – Present and Future Roles in Russian Politics”, which was organised by the Swedish Defence Research Agency (FOI) in cooperation with the Swedish Defence Commission and held in Stockholm on 17 October 2007. The report consists of papers presented at the conference and, reflecting the structure of the conference, the report consists of five parts: Russian Power Structures and Politics, The Mili- tary Agenda, Economy and Military Industry, Health Problems and a Summing up. Keywords: Russia, Domestic Policy, Security Policy, Foreign Policy, Economy, Power structures, Armed Forces, Military Reform, Military Doctrine, Military Industry, Defence Industry, Health, HIV/AIDS SAMMANFATTNING Denna rapport granskar de ryska kraftstrukturerna och deras roll i den ryska politiken idag och imorgon. I rapporten analyserar åtta framstående experter inom olika områden de ryska styrkestrukturerna och deras roll i den ryska politiken utifrån skilda perspektiv. Rapporten är baserad på underlag från en konferens med titeln ” Ryska kraft- strukturer – deras roll i den ryska politiken idag och imorgon” som arrangerades av FOI i samarbete med Försvarsberedningen och hölls i Stockholm den 17 oktober 2007. Rapporten består av konferensbidrag och följer dispositionen för konferensen. Rapporten består av fem delar: Ryska kraftstrukturer och politiken, Den militära agendan, Ekonomi och militärindustri, Hälsoproblem och en Sam- manfattning. Nyckelord: Ryssland, inrikespolitik, säkerhetspolitik, utrikespolitik, ekonomi, kraftstrukturer, styrkestrukturer, kraftministerier, väpnade styrkor, militärreform, militärdoktrin, militärindustri, försvarsindustri, hälsa, HIV/AIDS. 3 TABLE OF CONTENTS INTRODUCTION.................................................................................................. 7 Jan Leijonhielm FIRST SESSION: RUSSIAN POWER STRUCTURES AND POLITICS 1. RUSSIAN POWER STRUCTURES AND THEIR IMPACT ON RUSSIAN POLITICS REGARDING THE UPCOMING ELECTIONS ......................................................... 11 Aleksandr Golts 2. THE RUSSIAN POWER MINISTRIES AS A POLITICAL TOOL.......................... 23 Dr. Carolina Vendil Pallin SECOND SESSION: THE MILITARY AGENDA 3. ENFORCING ‘MILITARY SOLUTIONS’ IN THE NORTH CAUCASUS: ACCUMULATED EXPERIENCES IN CONFLICT (MIS)MANAGEMENT..................... 41 Dr. Pavel Baev 4. MILITARY REFORM AND ITS IMPLICATIONS FOR THE MODERNISATION OF THE RUSSIAN ARMED FORCES ......................................................................... 56 Vitaly Shlykov THIRD SESSION: ECONOMY AND MILITARY INDUSTRY 5. RUSSIAN REARMAMENT: MOTIVES, OPTIONS AND PROSPECTS ................. 71 Professor Steven Rosefielde 6. THE POLITICAL ECONOMY OF THE RUSSIAN DEFENCE SECTOR................. 97 Professor Stephen Blank FOURTH SESSION: HEALTH PROBLEMS 7. THE RUSSIAN MILITARY: POPULATION AND HEALTH CONSTRAINTS...... 131 Dr. Murray Feshbach SUMMING UP 8. THE ROLE OF RUSSIAN POWER STRUCTURES IN DOMESTIC POLITICS AND FOREIGN POLICY: WHAT THE FUTURE HOLDS.............................................. 165 Dr. Dmitri Trenin CONCLUDING REMARKS ................................................................................ 180 Fredrik Westerlund ABOUT THE AUTHORS ................................................................................... 193 5 INTRODUCTION Jan Leijonhielm Why this conference? The answer is revealing for the way we look at Russia today. During the past seven years we have seen a transfor- mation of the country under Putin’s presidency, starting with tran- sition from the chaotic Yeltsin period to consolidation in terms of political control and economic stability. However, this has taken place against a background of growing concern from Russian liberals and the outside world, as developments in democracy have simultaneously been reversed. Our interest in Russia is not only a question of gravity, although the sheer size of the Russian power structures places them in the top tier in an international comparison; nor is it solely due to the fact that there is a long standing academic tradition in the West of studying Soviet/Russian armed force structures. The imperative reason for focusing research on this area is that key individuals within the Russian power elite obviously regard the power structures as having a considerable impact on politics and society and thus of acting as a necessary instrument for these individuals. The concentration of power to the President, alongside the political centralisation to a Muscovite elite, turning Russia anew into a de facto one-party state, has been accomplished through a network of people mainly from the security and defence sectors, the siloviki, who today form the most influential part of Russian central administration. It is thus of obvious interest to scrutinise their role in the Russian political process, especially concerning their influence in the forthcoming elections. Do they have common goals? What sort of influence do they exercise? Why is it crucial to control them and their structures to remain at the top? 7 Russian Power Structures FOI-R—2437--SE Against this background, the Swedish Defence Agency in cooperation with the Swedish Defence Commission gathered a number of leading experts in the relevant fields of interest for the conference “Russian Power Structures - Present and Future Roles in Russian Politics” in October 2007. The ambition was to compare Russian and Western views in the analysis of political, economic, demographic, military and military-industrial developments and the siloviki impact on these. The existence of demographic factors may seem irrelevant in this context, but demography will unavoidably have a crucial effect on Russian economic development and future military strength. This report contains, apart from the summing up, also some reflections based upon the debates during the conference day and the general discussion which took place the following day. In this context it suffices to state that the