ATTACHMENT 7A Transit Operations Quarterly Report For the Period October 1, 2017 – December 31, 2017 (Q2 of FY18) Page 1 of 47 Contents BACKGROUND .............................................................................................................. 3 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ................................................................................................. 4 KEY PERFORMANCE INDICATORS ............................................................................. 8 ROUTE PERFORMANCE ............................................................................................. 30 NCTD CUSTOMER FEEDBACK .................................................................................. 37 FARE COLLECTION SYSTEM .................................................................................... 46 Page 2 of 47 BACKGROUND NCTD produces this Quarterly Performance Report to provide information regarding the performance of its operations. The data contained in this report for Fiscal Year 2018 is unaudited and subject to change. Final and audited financial and performance results will be provided as part of NCTD’s Comprehensive Annual Financial Report. Page 3 of 47 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Ridership Performance NCTD’s ridership performance is consistent with the nation-wide trends of decreased transit ridership, which can partly be attributed to the growing popularity of transportation network companies (TNCs), like Uber and Lyft, low unemployment, and increased automobile sales. Internal factors, like on-time performance, reliability, and missed trips, also impact ridership. BREEZE average miles per hour (MPH) have decreased by over 1 MPH since FY14; as travel times increase, customers with other mobility options will be more likely to choose those faster options. NCTD took proactive steps to address declining ridership and customer revenue trends. Actions include: 1. Implementation of Board approved route changes, which went into effect on October 8, 2017. These changes improved productivity and have resulted in increased ridership. This 2nd Quarter Transit Operations Report will provide information about the impact of this service change. 2. Board approval to forward proposed fare change recommendations to SANDAG that would be implemented in July 2018. 3. Engaging with COASTER customers via survey to garner feedback about NCTD’s services. 4. Initiated project planning and submitted a grant application for a comprehensive operations analysis (COA) – an in-depth study of NCTD’s modes that will guide future service levels, design, and implementation. NCTD also received a grant to support a land use study that will be a precursor to the COA. The land use study will inventory and analyze existing land use, planning conditions, gaps between land use and mobility, and strategies to address these gaps. Ridership across all modes (BREEZE, COASTER, SPRINTER, LIFT, and FLEX) is 2.06% less than budgeted for FY18 Quarter 2 and 7.41% less than budgeted YTD. Ridership for NCTD’s fixed-route bus (BREEZE) and rail services (COASTER and SPRINTER) decreased by 2.56% in Quarter 2 when compared with FY17 Quarter 2. BREEZE service levels have changed since the prior year with the implementation of the service change on October 8th, 2017. The table below details the average weekday, Saturday, and Sunday BREEZE operating statistics in FY18 Quarter 2 compared with FY17 Quarter 2. Page 4 of 47 Table 1 FY17 Quarter 2 vs FY18 Quarter 2 Operating Statistics FY17 Quarter 2 FY18 Quarter 2 Difference Weekday Revenue Miles 17,302.81 15,887.78 -8.18% Saturday Revenue Miles 11,615.68 10,562.78 -9.06% Sunday Revenue Miles 8,911.81 8,763.32 -1.67% Weekday Total Miles 19,547.79 18,231.67 -6.73% Saturday Total Miles 12,688.28 11,613.73 -8.47% Sunday Total Miles 9,589.63 9,572.57 -0.18% Weekday Revenue Hours 1,523.36 1,398.35 -8.21% Saturday Revenue Hours 887.43 850.25 -4.19% Sunday Revenue Hours 668.06 703.49 5.30% Weekday Total Hours 1,645.77 1,507.41 -8.41% Saturday Total Hours 936.68 897.11 -4.22% Sunday Total Hours 699.18 740.40 5.90% BREEZE and SPRINTER services are scheduled to support seamless transfers between the modes. Due to a strong interdependence of the two modes, ridership is expected to consistently trend in the same direction, if one increases, the other should increase and vice versa. However, as was the case in Quarter 1, SPRINTER ridership increased by 1.71% in Quarter 2 while BREEZE declined by 4.22%. The gap between the two modes is slowly decreasing, with BREEZE making improved ridership gains compared to Quarter 1, average weekday ridership in December FY18 was only 1.03% less than the prior year. The COASTER experienced a ridership decline of 2.44% during Quarter 2 for FY18. Encinitas Station had the greatest decrease in ridership (8.41%) during FY18 Quarter 2. FLEX ridership increased in FY18 Quarter 2 by 63.07% compared to FY17 Quarter 2. This can be attributed to the introduction of FLEX 392 and 395, two former BREEZE routes serving areas in Camp Pendleton. FLEX routes 373 and 374 were eliminated with the October 8, 2017 service change. LIFT ridership decreased by 12.35% for Quarter 2 of FY18. The average call response time decreased positively by over a minute and approaches the goal of within two minutes, additionally, the average length of calls decreased by 14.99%, while on-time performance improved by 1.11%. Farebox Recovery Farebox recovery decreased for every NCTD transit mode (2.47%) except FLEX which increased by 3.56%. Although SPRINTER ridership increased by 1.71% compared to FY17 Quarter 2, SPRINTER farebox recovery decreased by 2.92% during FY18 Quarter 2. As a result of the lower than budgeted ridership (discussed above), NCTD fare revenue is down 9.12% from the budget for Quarter 2 and 8.94% YTD. COASTER had the largest difference between budgeted fare and actual fare (-23.13%) followed by LIFT, Page 5 of 47 SPRINTER, BREEZE, and FLEX. COASTER had a promotional fare of 50% off during November which contributed to the lower than expected fare revenue. The decrease in farebox recovery can also be attributed to the Low Carbon Transit Operations Program (LCTOP). The customer revenue from the discounted passes is lower than regular fares and results in a reduced farebox recovery. FLEX service experienced an increase in its farebox recovery for FY18 Quarter 2 compared with FY17 Quarter 2 from 11.83%, to 15.39%. The increase is largely due to the conversion of BREEZE Routes 392 and 395 to FLEX which come with a premium fare but also allow for deviations to certain areas providing service to any destination within ¾ mile from the route. Although farebox recovery increased, the net cost per passenger increased by $8.02 to $44.11. A major factor in the increased cost per passenger was due to staff’s inability to predict how customers would use the new FLEX routes, as a result, trip runtimes were inflated to ensure connections would be made between the 392 and the 315 – the more runtime on a trip usually equates to increased revenue hours or hours that are contractually billable. Based off on-time performance and runtime data, staff have reduced runtimes and as a result, revenue hours. Table 2 below shows the change in revenue hours, total miles, and the estimated difference in cost after April 1st, 2018 on FLEX Routes 392 and 395. If ridership and fare revenue stay the same, farebox recovery is expected to increase to 18.2% and cost per passenger is expected to decrease to $32.51. The cost per passenger is high compared to fixed-route modes, but FLEX 392 and 395 replaced paratransit service on much of Camp Pendleton and replaced two unproductive BREEZE routes while maintaining transit service to the unproductive areas. Table 2 Existing Weekday Statistics and Cost compared to Weekday Statistics and Cost after April Service Change for FLEX 392 and 395 Current After April Difference Current After April Cost Cost in cost Revenue Hours 54.87 $1,660.60 42.62 $1,289.87 -$370.74 Total Miles 819.92 $815.82 805.92 $801.89 -$13.93 Total $2,476.42 $2,091.75 -$384.67 On-Time Performance NCTD has established on-time performance goals for each of its modes. The following is a summary of the modal performance compared with the goal for the first quarter of Fiscal Year 2018. • BREEZE fixed-route on-time performance goal is 90%. FY18 Quarter 2 performance was 88.74%. • SPRINTER rail on-time performance goal is 98%. FY18 Quarter 2 performance was 97.7%. • COASTER rail on-time performance goal is 95%. FY18 Quarter 2 performance was 92.57%. Page 6 of 47 • LIFT ADA Paratransit service on-time performance goal is 92%. FY18 Quarter 2 performance was 92.08%. • FLEX on-time performance goal is 95%. FY18 Quarter 2 performance was 98.30%. BREEZE on-time performance decreased by 0.84% in FY18 Quarter 2 compared to FY17 Quarter 2. NCTD changes BREEZE schedules twice a year (April and October); as operators become more familiar with route changes that took place in October, on-time performance is expected to increase. Scheduling staff also conducted running time analyses on many of the routes to improve on-time performance, with improvement expected in Quarter 4 with the April schedule. COASTER on-time performance increased by 3.23% from FY17 Quarter 2. The increase is a result of some construction projects nearing completion and also slight adjustments to running time to accommodate for positive train control initialization. There are more than six (6) projects totaling $427 million under construction that are impacting COASTER operations. The construction impacts have resulted in railroad closures, longer travel times, and delays. Unfortunately, NCTD cannot eliminate all the construction delays. However, NCTD, SANDAG, and the construction contractors are working on strategies to minimize the impact of construction on train service. LIFT on-time performance improved by 1.11% in FY18 Quarter 2 over FY17 Quarter 2. NCTD implemented a policy change to on-time performance, which increased the on-time window from within 20-minutes to 30-minutes of the scheduled pick-up time.