Renewing Our Energy Future September 1995 OTA-ETI-614 GPO stock #052-003-01427-1 Recommended Citation: U.S. Congress, Office of Technology Assessment, Renewing Our Energy Fulture,OTA-ETI-614 (Washington, DC: U.S. Government Printing Office, September 1995). For sale by the U.S. Government Printing Office Superintendent of Documents, Mail Stop: SSOP, Washington, DC 20402-9328 ISBN 0-16 -048237-2 Foreword arious forms of renewable energy could become important con- tributors to the U.S. energy system early in the next century. If that happens, the United States will enjoy major economic, envi- ronmental, and national security benefits. However, expediting progress will require expanding research, development, and commer- cialization programs. If budget constraints mandate cuts in programs for renewable energy, some progress can still be made if efforts are focused on the most productive areas. This study evaluates the potential for cost-effective renewable energy in the coming decades and the actions that have to be taken to achieve the potential. Some applications, especially wind and bioenergy, are already competitive with conventional technologies. Others, such as photovol- taics, have great promise, but will require significant research and devel- opment to achieve cost-competitiveness. Implementing renewable energy will be also require attention to a variety of factors that inhibit potential users. This study was requested by the House Committee on Science and its Subcommittee on Energy and Environment; Senator Charles E. Grass- ley; two Subcommittees of the House Committee on Agriculture—De- partment Operations, Nutrition and Foreign Agriculture and Resource Conservation, Research and Forestry; and the House Subcommittee on Energy and Environment of the Committee on Appropriations. OTA appreciates the invaluable advice and assistance of the many people who contributed to this project, including the advisory panel, contractors. and reviewers. ROGER C. HERDMAN Director . Ill Advisory Panel Robert W. Fri David Kearney Scott Sklar Chairman President Executive Director President Keamey and Associates Solar Energy Industries Resources for the Future Association John Kennedy Jim Batchelor Product General Manager Carl Weinberg Vice President, Technical Services Space Systems and Advanced Weinberg Associates SF Services, Inc. Applications Allied-Signal Aerospace Robert H. Williams Art Brooks Senior Research Scientist President Alden Meyer Center for Energy and Sun Earth, Inc. Director, Climate Change and Environmental Studies Energy Program Princeton University Edward J. Carlough Union of Concerned Scientists General President Kurt E. Yeager Sheet Metal Workers Roberta Nichols Senior Vice President, International Association Manager, Electric Vehicle Technical Operations Strategy and Planning Electric Power Research Institute John Corsi Car Product Development Solarex Ford Motor Co. INVITED OBSERVERS Robert San Martin J. Michael Davis Mike Nicklas Deputy Assistant Secretary Director, Sales and Marketing President Office of Utility Technologies Golden Technologies Co., Inc. Innovative Design U.S. Department of Energy David Dawson Dale Osborn William G. Rosenberg Forest Policy Consultant Vice President Assistant Administrator Kenetec/U.S. Windpower, Inc. Elizabeth Paine Hughes Office of Air and Radiation Commissioner U.S. Environmental Protection Bruce Pasternack Agency State of Maine Senior Vice President Booz Allen and Hamilton W. Densmore Hunter Thomas D. Bath Director, Analytic Studies Division Department Manager, Maria Richter Process R&D National Renewable Energy Principal Laboratory Weyerhauser Co. Morgan Stanley & Co., Inc. Renz D. Jennings Victor Shaio Commissioner President Arizona Corporation Commission New Energy Corporation of Indiana Note: OTA appreciates and is grateful for the valuable assistance and thoughtful critiques provided by the advisory panel members. The panel does not, however, necessarily approve, disapprove, or endorse this report. OTA assumes full responsibility for the report and the accuracy of its contents. iv Preject Staff Peter D. Blair PRINCIPAL STAFF International Activities: Assistant Director Samuel F. Baldwinl Ted Kennedy Industry, Commerce, and Project Director Christine Egan International Security Division Meridian Corp. Alan Crane2 Transport: Emilia L. Govan Project Director Program Director Mark Delucchi Energy, Transportation, and University of California, Davis Matthew Weinberg Infrastructure Program Analyst Eric Larson Princeton University ADMINISTRATIVE STAFF Joan Ogden CONTRACTORS Lillian Chapman Princeton University Buildings: Division Administrator Helen English PUBLISHING STAFF Passive Solar Industries Council Marsha Fenn Mary Lou Higgs John Evans Editor Manager Consultant Gay Jackson Economic Impacts of Denise Felix PC Specialist Energy Crops: Production Editor K. Shaine Tyson Tina Aikens Randall A. Reese Dorinda Edmondson Administrative Secretary Windy Peaks Associates Electronic Publishing Specialist Electricity: Chris Onrubia Dallas Burtraw Senior Graphic Designer Pallavi R. Shah Resources for the Future Susan Hoffmeyer Paul Maycock Graphic Designer Photovoltaic Energy Systems, Inc. Frances Wood Michael Cranna I ~rough February 1995. AES Corp. 2 As of March 1995. v Reviewers Donald Aitken Lynn Coles Harry Gordon Donald Aitken Associates National Renewable Energy Burt, Hill, Kosar & Rittlemann Laboratory Jonathan Atkin Philip J. Haley Daimler-Benz Janet Cushman Allison Gas Engine Oak Ridge National Laboratory Simon Awerbuch Dan Hines University of Massachusetts, John DeCicco American Corn Growers Lowell American Council for an Energy Association Efficient Economy J. Douglas Balcomb Robert Hirsch National Renewable Energy Mark Delucchi Electric Power Research Institute Laboratory University of California at Davis Tom Houlihan Jan Beyea Ed DeMeo Office of Science and National Audubon Society Electric Power Research Institute Technology Policy Jim Birk Christian Demeter Mary-Margaret Jenior Electric Power Research Institute Antares Group, Inc. U.S. Department of Energy Linda Branstetter Reid Detchon Alec Jenkins Sandia National Laboratory Podesta Associates California Energy Commission John Brogan Joy Dunkerley Ed Kahn U.S. Department of Energy Office of Technology Assessment Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory Dallas Burtraw Helen English Mark Kelley Resources for the Future Passive Solar Industries Council Building Science Engineering Anthony Catalano Greg Eyring Paul Komor National Renewable Energy Office of Technology Assessment Office of Technology Assessment Laboratory John Ferrell Keith Kozloff U.S. Department of Energy World Resources Institute Tom Kroll Mike Phillips Randy Swisher Minnesota Department of Office of Technology Assessment American Wind Energy National Resources Association Steve Plotkin A. Lannus Office of Technology Assessment Roger Taylor Electric Power Research Institute National Renewable Energy Jim Porterfield Laboratory Tom Lareau American Farm Bureau American Petroleum Institute Federation Michael Totten Center for Renewable Energy Karen Larsen Jack Ranney Office of Technology Assessment Joint Institute for Energy and Adrian Tuluca Environment Steven Winter Associates, Inc. Ron Larson Larson Consulting Don Rice Anthony Turhollow James River Corp. Oak Ridge National Laboratory Robert T. Lorand Science Applications International Theryl Robertson Jane Turnbuli Corp. Soil Conservation Service Electric Power Research Institute U.S. Department of Agriculture Al Miller S.R. Venkateswaran National Renewable Energy Robin Roy Energetic, Inc. Laboratory Office of Technology Assessment Yih-huei Wan Paul J. Miller J. Ray Smith National Renewable Energy W. Alton Jones Foundation, Inc. Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Laboratory Ralph Overend Tom Williams National Renewable Energy Rodney Sobin National Renewable Energy Laboratory Office of Technology Assessment Laboratory Brian Parsons National Renewable Energy Laboratory vii contributors Donald Aitken Gregory Franta Donald Prowler Donald Aitken Associates ENSAR Group Don Prowler and Associates Bruce Anderson Harry Gordon Rick Schwolsky Earthday USA Burt, Hill, Kosar & Rittlemann Builder Magazine Steve Andrews Robert Groberg Steve Selkowitz Solar Spectra U.S. Department of Housing and Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory Urban Development J. Douglas Balcomb Scott Sklar National Renewable Energy Bruce Hunn Solar Energy Industries Laboratory University of Texas at Austin Association Jim Barron Doug Kelbaugh Harvey Serum New York State Energy Research University of Washington Atlas Energy Products and Development Authority Mark Kelley Stephen Szoke Jeff Cook Building Science Engineering National Concrete Masonry Arizona State University Associates Edward Mazria Gerald Eid Mazria Associates. Inc. Sim Van der Ryn Eid-Co Buildings, Inc. Van der Ryn & Associates Mike Nicklas Charles Eley Innovative Design Eley Associates .,, Vlll c ontents 1 Overview 1 Renewable Energy Resources and Technologies 2 Policy Options 15 Conclusion 23 Appendix l-A: National Energy Use and Renewable Energy 27 2 Agricultural Energy Crops 33 Bioenergy Supplies 36 Potential Environmental Impacts 40 Economic Impacts 45 RD&D and Commercialization 49 Policy Options 60 Crosscutting Issues 64 Conclusion 65 3 Residential and Commercial Buildings 67 Introduction 69 Renewable Energy Technologies 71 Policy Options 98 Crosscutting Issues 101 Conclusion 101 4 Transport 103 What Has Changed in Transport Fuels? 103 Renewable Energy Paths for Transport 108 A Renewable