PhD programme in Science and Management of Climate Change 30th cycle Research thesis The Russian Arctic vision: implications for Arctic governance in the context of climate change PhD coordinator: Prof. Carlo Barbante Thesis supervisior: Prof. Stefano Soriani PhD candidate: Sandi Lansetti 1 The arguments of the thesis have been the basis for the following publications. • On the energy issue a paper has been published in the journal “Arktika i Sever” (Арктика и Север - The Arctic and the North, 2016: 25, pp. 5-19) in the 25th edition number of the Journal under the title The “keep in the ground future” of Arctic fossil fuel resources https://narfu.ru/upload/iblock/59b/01_lansetti.pdf On the same issue, another updated and revised article is being submitted for publication. • A presentation was held at the Arctic Science Summit Week 2017 in Prague with the title “The Russian Arctic Offshore Gas Projects: Facts, Scale, Prospects and Climate Concerns and Limitations”. The abstract of the presentation has been published in the Book of abstracts of The Arctic Science Summit Week 2017 “A Dynamic Arctic in Global Change” p.169. • The security and militarization issue has been the starting point for a publication in co-authorship with my thesis supervisor prof. Stefano Soriani in the journal Rivista Geografica Italiana (ANVUR group A Journal, SSD 11/B1). The article has been accepted for publication: under the title: Towards a “Militarization Rush” in the Arctic Region? Evidences, Recent Trends and Critical Issues in the Case of the Russian Arctic. Riv. Geogr. Ital. 125(3), settembre 2018. • A paper “Russian Arctic uses, discourses and implications for climate change and sustainability of the region” will be presented on the Russian Arctic vision at the IGU (International Geographical Union) Conference in Moscow, June 4-6, 2018; session: Cold & High Altitude Regions challenges and solutions for achieving sustainability. 2 INDEX LIST OF TABLES AND FIGURES INTRODUCTION PART 1. DEFINING AND CONCEPTUALIZING THE ARCTIC Chapter 1. The problem of definition 1.1. Geographical definitions and maps 1.2. Arctic territory 1.3. The Russian Arctic Chapter 2. The emerging of the “Global Arctic”: Climate change in the Arctic, and the role of Russia 2.1. Climate change 2.2. Arctic climate change 2.3. Increasing Arctic accessibility 2.4. Russia and climate change Chapter 3. Conceptualizing the Arctic: geopolitics and the Russian State in the Arctic 3.1. Introduction: Geography, power and the construction of meaning 3.2. The “centre/periphery” interpretation framework, and the role of the current global dynamics in the Arctic 3.3. The rationale for a “state-centred” approach to the Russian Arctic 3.4. Geopolitical discourses and practices: the role of the Arctic in Russian national rhetoric 3.5. Arctic speciality, the “frontier concept” and the process of “internal colonization” in Russia 3.6. The Arctic and the Cold War geopolitical trap PART II. ECONOMIC USES AND MAIN ACTIVITIES IN THE RUSSIAN ARCTIC Chapter 4. The framework of Arctic uses 4.1. Introduction: the “sea management” matrix 3 4.2. Arctic oil and gas 4.3. Russian Arctic security and militarization 4.4. Transportation systems Chapter 5. Energy and Arctic fossil fuels resources 5.1. The major transformations in the energy market 5.2. Renewable energy, innovations and climate change 5.3. The keep in the ground future 5.4. The Arctic gas sector 5.5. Arctic natural gas supply and projects 5.6. Russian projects 5.7. The Yamal LNG project 5.8. Conclusions about Arctic gas 5.9. Growing alternatives to fossil fuels 5.10. Conclusions Chapter 6. Security and militarization of the Russian Arctic 6.1. Introduction 6.2. Russian Arctic security discourses and policy documents 6.3. Practical policies in the military fields 6.4. Evidence against a militarization rush 6.5. Conclusions Chapter 7. Arctic transportation systems 7.1. Introduction 7.2. Trans-Arctic transportation 7.3. Northern Sea Route: facts, scale and prospects PART III.THE RUSSIAN ARCTIC VISION Chapter 8. A historical perspective 8.1. Introduction 8.2. Early Russian Arctic involvement 8.3. Soviet Arctic legacy and policies 8.4. Eltsin's Russia in crisis and the return to the Arctic Chapter 9. Russian discourses on the Arctic 4 9.1. Introduction 9.2. Russian Strategic Arctic documents 9.3 The analysis of Russian Press: Methodology 9.4. Russian press analysis 9.5. Discussion CONCLUSIONS REFERENCES APPENDICES 5 AKNOWLEDGEMENTS For the results of this work and for their support I want to thank my thesis supervisor prof. Stefano Soriani and the senior research scientist Tatiana Vlasova whose contribution was very important for the definition and development of this thesis. In addition, I would like to thank my family and my friends for their support. 6 List of tables Table 1 – Arctic population............................................................................ p. 31 Table 2 – Different framing of the climate change issue in Russia................... p. 44 Table 3 - Sea uses matrix................................................................................ p. 76 Table 4 - Relationship between some uses and issues.................................... p. 77 Table 5 - Russian proposed and under construction LNG projects................... p. 96 Table 6: documents worlds analysis.............................................................. p. 183 Table 7: pravda.ru images, comments and shares......................................... p. 192 Table 8: pravda.ru most shared articles........................................................ p. 193 Table 9: pravda.ru articles arguments 2015-2018.......................................... p. 194 Table 10: pravda.ru words analysis............................................................... p. 195 Table 11: pravda.ru climate change issue...................................................... p. 199 Table 12: lenta.ru images, comments and shares.......................................... p. 201 Table 13: lenta.ru most shared articles......................................................... p. 202 Table 14: lenta.ru articles arguments 2015-2018........................................... p. 203 Table 15: lenta.ru words analysis.................................................................. p. 205 Table 16: lenta.ru climate change issue......................................................... p. 210 List of figures Figure 1 - AMAP Arctic map............................................................................ p. 22 Figure 2 - CAFF Arctic map.............................................................................. p. 24 Figure 3 - Arctic political map and climate and vegetation boundaries............ p. 25 Figure 4 - Russian Arctic Zone territories......................................................... p. 29 Figure 5 - Arctic Sea Ice Extent........................................................................ p. 37 Figure 6 - PIOMAS Arctic Sea Ice Volume........................................................ p. 38 Figure 7 - Summary of GHG Emissions for the Russian Federation................... p. 42 Figure 8 - Total GHG emissions, without and with LULUCF.............................. p. 43 Figure 9 - Arctic oil and gas estimated reserves.............................................. p. 91 Figure 10 - Resource estimates for the Russian Arctic..................................... p. 92 Figure 11 - Pipeline vs LNG transportation cost............................................... p. 94 Figure 12 - Potential growth in Novatek LNG output....................................... p. 97 7 Figure 13 - The economics of Yamal LNG....................................................... p. 101 Figure 14 - Yamal LNG transportation routes................................................. p.102 Figure 15 - LNG delivered to Europe and LNG delivered to Asia...................... p.102 Figure 16. Comparison of projects’ capex per mln tonnes of LNG................... p.103 Figure 17: Renewables share of gross electricity production..........................p. 105 Figure 18: Renewable power production 2010-2016..................................... p. 105 Figure 19: Arctic military bases and oil and gas fields.................................... p. 117 Figure 20: Arctic territorial claims................................................................. p. 121 Figure 21: Arctic shipping routes................................................................... p. 131 Figure 22: Number of Transits on NSR........................................................... p. 138 Figure 23: Transit Cargo on NSR.................................................................... p. 138 Figure 24: Cargo valume on NSR dynamic..................................................... p. 140 Figure 25: Current and future NSR transit..................................................... p. 141 Figure 26: regional oil and gas deposits........................................................ p. 142 Figure 27: Russian river transportation links................................................. p. 143 Figure 28: Russian Arctic projects................................................................. p. 148 8 Introduction The ongoing development of the human civilization, especially in its technological and demographic dimension, is expanding the human activities and its footprint across the globe into the Arctic region, which due to the disappearing sea ice, is becoming increasingly accessible and important for the developed and globalised