Current and emerging trends in the aerospace sector How shifting priorities and developing technologies are shaping the industry today and into the future Author Matthew Price Client Manager July 2018 About us SNC-Lavalin’s Atkins business is one of the world’s most respected design, engineering and project management consultancies. Together, SNC-Lavalin, a global fully integrated professional services and project management company, and Atkins help our clients plan, design and enable major capital projects, and provide expert consultancy that covers the full lifecycle of projects. With a strong, proven heritage in aerospace design and consultancy services, we have worked on some of the industry’s biggest projects. Including: Airbus’ A380, A400M and Single Aisle aircraft, and with Marshall Aerospace and Defence Group, Bombardier, BAE Systems, Rolls-Royce and the Royal Air Force. Introduction As major aircraft manufacturers and tier one suppliers get into full execution mode to meet record demand, Matthew Price assesses a number of exciting developments on the horizon that the aviation industry is set to embrace as demand grows and trends shift. There’s undoubtedly continuing, strong growth for commercial air transport – most notably ‘Passenger numbers from developing markets. There’s also a need to further drive fuel-effciency and, companies to double by 2036’ are using big data to help them understand and The International Air Transport Association predict when components require attention. (IATA) forecasts that global passenger numbers These, and more, factors have all resulted will almost double in the period to 2036, rising in the aerospace industry using increasingly to 7.8 billion annually. To match that demand, advanced methods to build, repair and maintain the aviation industry is continuing to raise output commercial and military feets. to historic levels. In July 2018 Airbus announced that nearly 37,400 new aircraft – valued $5.8 But that just brings us up to the present day. trillion – are required over 20 years, doubling What about the future? the world’s passenger feet to more than There’s little doubt that evolving technologies, 48,000 aircraft. electric propulsion, and smart new materials Narrowbody craft, also known as ‘single-aisle will bring on further opportunities, change, aircraft ’ account for the vast bulk of those: and challenges. So, it’s important that we the A320 and 737 families – including Neo and understand the scale of these challenges to Max variants with new engines – accounted manage existing feets effciently, but also – for a total of 9,730 aircraft, or around 75% of given the volume of aircraft yet to be delivered, the Q1 fgure. On top of that, output of their and future demand – so we can make the most new fagship widebody programmes is also of the opportunities that are without doubt increasing, although this will partly compensate coming our way. for falling rates of older aircraft types. l l V V 3 Current and emerging trends in the aerospace sector Driven by that dynamic, the two big aircraft & Whitney particularly exposed. In addition, manufacturers – Airbus and Boeing – are both pricing pressure from the airframe equipment looking at taking narrowbody production to manufacturers is driving a new wave of unprecedented levels and challenging the consolidation in the supply chain. supply chain to meet the demand. This is a Recently, Safran successfully acquired cabin signifcant issue, bearing in mind engine and and seating specialist Zodiac Aerospace, and interior manufacturing have both proved to be United Technologies took on a $23 billion pursuit recent production bottlenecks – then we could of avionics and in-fight entertainment systems see a monthly output of a combined 130 aircraft provider Rockwell Collins – itself bolstered from 2020 onwards. by the 2017 acquisition of interiors frm B/E Aerospace. In addition, Boeing has recently The supply announced several initiatives to enter the supply chain, developing auxiliary power units, chain’s challenge actuators, seating and avionics, alone or with partners. Aside from vertical integration, these It’s not just the big two who face this supply moves are driven by the frms’ desires to capture chain challenge, both Canada’s Bombardier and more of the maintenance and services market. Brazilian manufacturer Embraer have begun deliveries of their respective CSeries and E-Jet E2 aircraft, which are both powered by variants Looking to the of the Pratt & Whitney geared turbofan engines. Also, new types from Irkut (MC-21), Comac next generation (C919) and Mitsubishi Aircraft (MRJ) are all in Aircraft development also continues, albeit at fight test, with service entries scheduled for the a slower pace. With the exception of the Boeing next fve years. 777X, and potentially their as-yet unlaunched As a result, the supply chain has made mid-market airplane , there is no other ‘clean- signifcant investment to meet the proposed sheet’ aircraft currently in development by the output hikes, with narrow-body engine big two, although a Sino-Russian collaboration manufacturers CFM International, which is to produce a next-generation widebody is a joint venture between US frm GE Aviation in the pipeline. and Safran Aero Engines of France, and Pratt www.atkinsglobal.com/aerospace 4 Current and emerging trends in the aerospace sector What is also certain, is that engine co-operate on a future combat air system, manufacturers are all investing in research and adding to other next-generation development technology for the next generation of aircraft, efforts from Japan, South Korea and Turkey, and in the mid-term all of them appear to be for example. banking on the current turbofan architecture to improve fuel-effciency. But any fuel- burn savings from propulsion systems will Maintenance, repair undoubtedly be driven by the employment of increasingly exotic materials – ceramic matrix and operational issues composites, for example – to allow better What sets the new generation of aircraft apart thermal effciency in the hot section of the from its predecessors are innovations in both engine, or the use of a gearing system – as seen materials and systems – innovations that on Pratt & Whitney PW1000-series engines – to pose both opportunities and challenges for separate the fan and turbomachinery, allowing the maintenance, repair and overhaul (MRO) each to operate at its optimum speed. sector, too. While most of the current crop of narrowbodies feature conventional aluminium On that note, Rolls-Royce is working on its wings and fuselages, the newest widebodies, the geared UltraFan programme, coupled with Airbus A350 and the Boeing 787, both feature development of a more effcient core as part majority composite constructions. of its advance research. Assuming there is no dramatic change of course over the coming Although previous-generation aircraft have years, thee most recent forecasts from successfully utilised composite material Airbus, Boeing and independent consultancy – around 17% of the 777 is carbon fbre, FlightGlobal Ascend predict deliveries of around for example – this proportion is set only to 35,000 to 39,000 passenger and freighter increase. While the properties of metallic and aircraft over the next 20 years. Although composite structures are well understood, and forecasts have some variance, they are broadly many airlines and MROs will have expertise in agreement in terms of overall numbers. in the repair techniques required for both, it is the increasing prevalence and scale of use of composite that poses the challenge for Defence implications maintenance and repair. If commercial aerospace is in execution mode, Metallic structures tend to bend under the the same can be said of the defence industry. force of an impact – in collision with a ground The most signifcant current programme on the handling vehicle, for example – but that’s not global stage is the Lockheed Martin F-35 Joint the case with composite material. While a Strike Fighter, which is ramping-up to deliver simple visual check would reveal a dent on an orders from its nine partner nations and three aluminium fuselage, the sub-surface damage overseas customers. on a composite airframe can only be detected In Europe, meanwhile, Airbus Defence & Space through ultrasonic scanning. And this requires is working to deliver the A400M military specialist equipment. Repairs require investment transporter to its clients. And further out, there not just in equipment, but also in people, will be the Northrop Grumman B-21 Raider training, skills and process improvements bomber for the US Air Force, while France and to be performed properly. Germany have indicated a willingness to www.atkinsglobal.com/aerospace 5 Current and emerging trends in the aerospace sector Changing spaces Increasing digitisation A further opportunity for the maintenance The increasing digitisation of the maintenance sector, capitalising on a headache for airlines, is sector will be another factor demanding in supporting the need for airlines to regularly different skills to previous generations’ skills. reft a variety of updated commercial aircraft As Boeing notes in its 2017 technician forecast: interiors. Changing passenger demands – driven “As airlines continue to take delivery of new by the fast pace of development in consumer airplanes, advances in airplane technology will technology and a new generation of digitally- drive an increased need for technicians savvy airline customers – has resulted in airlines skilled