The Transportation Futures Project: Planning for Technology Change David Levinson, Principal Investigator Department of Civil, Environmental and Geo- Engineering University of Minnesota January 2016 Research Project Final Report 2016-02 To request this document in an alternative format call 651-366-4718 or 1-800-657-3774 (Greater Minnesota) or email your request to [email protected]. Please request at least one week in advance. Technical Report Documentation Page 1. Report No. 2. 3. Recipients Accession No. MN/RC 2016-02 4. Title and Subtitle 5. Report Date January 2016 The Transportation Futures Project: Planning for Technology 6. Change 7. Author(s) 8. Performing Organization Report No. David Levinson, Adam Boies, Jason Cao, Yingling Fan 9. Performing Organization Name and Address 10. Project/Task/Work Unit No. University of Minnesota University of Minnesota CTS #2016002 Dept. of Civil, Environmental, Humphrey School of Public 11. Contract (C) or Grant (G) No. and Geo- Engineering Affairs (c) 99008 (wo) 192 500 Pillsbury Drive S.E. 301 19th Avenue S Minneapolis, MN 55455 Minneapolis, MN 55455 12. Sponsoring Organization Name and Address 13. Type of Report and Period Covered Minnesota Department of Transportation Final Report Research Services & Library 14. Sponsoring Agency Code 395 John Ireland Boulevard, MS 330 St. Paul, Minnesota 55155-1899 15. Supplementary Notes http://www.lrrb.org/pdf/201602.pdf 16. Abstract (Limit: 250 words) After a long period of system deployment of the auto-highway system, and several decades of maturity of that system, the surface transportation sector is facing a large number of technological shifts that could change whether and how people travel. While nascent, their prospects are potentially significant. This research proposed to explore these technologies - ascertain their potential market, consider their interactions, understand what that might do to travel demands, and address how planning and forecasting should respond. This research developed a series of white papers: high-level policy briefs based on our analysis of each technology, its direction, and its implications for Minnesota. This work extends and complements the MnDOT 50 year vision expressed in Minnesota GO. It also builds on the ideas developed in the NCHRP 750 project: Strategic Issues Facing Transportation. The timeframe on these technologies varies, and the authors looked at deployment paths over time rather than simple snapshots in time. 17. Document Analysis/Descriptors 18. Availability Statement forecasting, technological forecasting, travel demand, No restrictions. Document available from: technological innovations, planning National Technical Information Services, Alexandria, Virginia 22312 19. Security Class (this report) 20. Security Class (this page) 21. No. of Pages 22. Price Unclassified Unclassified 141 The Transportation Futures Project: Planning for Technology Change Final Report Prepared by: David Levinson Adam Boies Department of Civil, Environmental and Geo- Engineering University of Minnesota Jason Cao Yingling Fan Humphrey School of Public Affairs University of Minnesota January 2016 Published by: Minnesota Department of Transportation Research Services & Library 395 John Ireland Boulevard, MS 330 St. Paul, Minnesota 55155-1899 This report represents the results of research conducted by the authors and does not necessarily represent the views or policies of the Minnesota Department of Transportation or the University of Minnesota. This report does not contain a standard or specified technique. The authors, the Minnesota Department of Transportation and the University of Minnesota do not endorse products or manufacturers. Trade or manufacturers’ names appear herein solely because they are considered essential to this report. Table of Contents Chaper 1: Autonomous Vehicles ........................................................................................................ 1 1.1 Connected vs. Autonomous Vehicles .................................................................................. 5 1.2 Timeline ............................................................................................................................... 6 1.3 Environments ....................................................................................................................... 7 1.4 Consequences ....................................................................................................................... 8 1.5 The Future of Travel Demand and Where We Live: The Out Scenario ............................ 12 1.6 Discussion .......................................................................................................................... 13 1.7 Consequences ..................................................................................................................... 14 Chaper 2: Mobile Telecommunications and Activity In-Motion ..................................................... 16 2.1 Introduction ........................................................................................................................ 16 2.2 Existing Empirical Evidence .............................................................................................. 16 2.3 Identification of New Activities in-Motion Using ATUS Data ......................................... 19 2.4 Impacts of the New Technologies ...................................................................................... 21 Chaper 3: Information and Communication Technologies .............................................................. 24 3.1 Introduction ........................................................................................................................ 24 3.2 Telecommuting .................................................................................................................. 24 3.2.1 The impacts of telecommuting on transportation ....................................................... 24 3.2.2 Trend analysis ............................................................................................................. 25 3.2.3 Perspective .................................................................................................................. 28 3.3 E-shopping ......................................................................................................................... 29 3.3.1 The impacts of e-shopping on transportation ............................................................. 29 3.3.2 Trend analysis ............................................................................................................. 31 3.3.3 Perspectives ................................................................................................................ 32 3.4 Other Tele-activities and Travel ........................................................................................ 32 3.5 Summary of ICT and travel ............................................................................................... 33 Chaper 4: Mobility-as-a-Service ...................................................................................................... 36 4.1 Sharing Cars ....................................................................................................................... 36 4.2 Sharing Rides ..................................................................................................................... 39 4.3 Sharing Bikes ..................................................................................................................... 41 4.4 The Future of Sharing: Cloud Commuting ........................................................................ 44 4.5 The Future of Travel Demand and Where We Live: The Up Scenario ............................. 47 4.6 Discussion .......................................................................................................................... 48 Chaper 5: Quantified Self and Quantified Networks........................................................................ 50 5.1 Introduction ........................................................................................................................ 50 5.2 Smartphone-Based Mobility Sensing and Quantification Apps ........................................ 50 5.3 Quantified Self and the Potential of Travel Behavior Intervention ................................... 53 5.4 Discussion on Quantified Self and Quantified Networks .................................................. 54 Chaper 6: Electrification and Alternative Fuels ............................................................................... 56 6.1 Introduction ........................................................................................................................ 56 6.2 Alternative Fuel Vehicle Trends ........................................................................................ 57 6.3 Drop-in Biofuels ................................................................................................................ 57 6.4 Electric Vehicles ................................................................................................................ 61 6.4.1 Powering Electric Vehicles ........................................................................................ 63 6.4.2 Electric Vehicle Penetration ....................................................................................... 64 6.4.3 Dynamic Wireless Power Transfer ............................................................................