WINTER 1992 I il L« s o F R I THE BAROMETER OF SOCIAL TRENDS, M E M B E R S AECI Ltd • Africa Institute of SA • African Cables • African Oxygen Ltd • Allied Technologies Ltd • Amalgamated Beverage Industries • Anglo American & De Beers Chairman's Fund Education Trust • Anglovaal Ltd • Barlow Rand Foundation • BP Southern Africa • Chamber of Mines of SA • Colgate-Palmolive (Pty) Ltd • Data Research Africa • Development Bank of Southern Africa • Durban Metropolitan Chamber of Commerce • EMS A • ESKOM • Everite Ltd • First National Bank of Southern Africa Ltd • General Mining, Metals & Minerals • Gilbeys Distillers & Vintners (Pty) Ltd • Gold Fields Foundation • Johannesburg Consolidated Investment Co Ltd • Johnson & Johnson • Johnson Wax • Konrad Adenauer Foundation • KwaZulu Finance & Investment Corp • Liberty Life • Malbak Ltd • Mercedes Benz of South Africa (Pty) Ltd • Nampak • Netherlands Embassy • Old Mutual • Perm Centenary Trust • PG Glass Holdings (Pty) Ltd • Premier Group • Pretoria Portland Cement Co • Rand Merchant Bank • Richards Bay Minerals • Rio Tinto Management Services SA • South Africa Foundation • Sanlam • Sappi • S A Sugar Association • SEIFSA • South African Breweries Ltd • Southern Life • Standard Bank Investments Corp Ltd • Starcke Associates • Stellenbosch Farmers Winery Ltd • Suncrush Limited • Swiss Development Agency • TEK Corporation • Tiger Oats Ltd • Tioxide Southern Africa • The Tongaat-Hulett Group Ltd • Unitrans Limited • The Urban Foundation • Unilever SA • UNISA • Vaal Reef Exploration & Mining Co Ltd • Wooltru Ltd INDICATOR OUTH AFRICA 99 We are committed to democratic principles, individual freedom and a socially responsible free enterprise economy66 An extract from AECI "TOWARDS 2002" Sustained growth through diversification he INDICATOR SOUTH AFRICA Quarterly Report and the INDICATOR SOUTH AFRICA Issue TFocus series are published by the Centre for Social and Development Studies, based at the University of Natal, Durban. 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Editor Graham Howe Production/Design Rob Evans Conflict Research Antoinette Louw Secretary/Marketing Pat Fismer Marketing Assistant Charlene Nel EDITORIAL COMMITTEE Simon Bekker, Mark Bennett, Myrna Berkowitz, Rob Evans, Graham Howe, Mike McGrath, Valerie Miller, and Lawrence Schlemmer • COVER ILLUSTRATION Jeff Rankin, Clear Pictures • REPRODUCTION WS Repro and Multigrciphics • PRINTING The Natal Witness ISSN 0259-188x PRESS REVIEWS OF INDICATOR SOUTH AFRICA 'Opening the Cities ... this excellent publication, produced by the Indicator Project in conjunction with the Urban Foundation, will be essential reading for all those involved with the collapse of the Group Areas Act.' NU Focus, January 1991. 'Indicator SA, the estimable quarterly report, has made a valuable contribution to the environmental debate ... a publication called Rotating the Cube: Environmental Strategies for the 1990s: Sunday Times, April 1990. 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INDICATOR SOUTH AFRICA QUARTERLY REPORT N93 WINTER PC- Myths of the New Nation: Soviet/South African Parallels RW Johnson 7 Regional Tier Reforms Jeff McCarthy 11 Frying Big Fish: Campaigns against Corruption Robert Klitgaard 13 The CIP Broedertwis: Restanters and Volkstaters Janis Grobbelaar 17 PAC Politics after Codesa Evangelos Mantzaris 21 ECON The Fiscal Challenge: Avenues for Tax Reform Andre Roux 27 Economic Outlook McGrath and Holden 32 Monopolies: The Big Bad Wolf Smith and Brann 35 People on the Move: Migration Streams in the DFR Cross, Bekker and Clark 41 Case Studies of Shantytown: Upgrading Besters Settlement Taylor and van Horen 45 In the Land of Canaan Libby Ardington 47 Down Kennedy Road Stavrou and Luckin 49 Inward Development: Solutions to Urban Sprawl Behrens and Watson 51 Political Conflict in Natal, 1989 - 1992 Antoinette Louw 57 Mayhem in the Midlands: Battle for Bruntville Anthony Minnaar 60 The Ghosts of Trust Feed Mary de Haas 65 Slow Motion: Implementing the National Peace Accord Daniel Nina 69 Nationalisation: The Commanding Heights Jessica Schroenn 75 Growth Industry: Domestic Tourism in South Africa Karen Kohler 81 A Gender Agenda: The New Women's Coalition Pat Horn 85 A flurry of major events which began with the In other monitors, contributors prescribe practical Boipatong crisis led to the temporary collapse of cures and policy solutions to other ailments which negotiations at Codesa, a series of strikes, mass action complicate South Africa's condition: campaigns and renewed international pressure, in rapid succession in mid-1992 . As Indicator SA went 8 RW Johnson warns that ethnic and regional to print with this mid-year edition, South Africa interests cannot be submerged in the rhetoric of appeared on the brink of a worsening crisis facing 'nation-building', and that we face major what could aptly be described as our 'winter of challenges of national political and economic discontent'. integration. He draws some cautionary comparisons between the South African and Soviet The illustration on our main cover personifies the experience. body politic in a hoary state of ill-health. South Africa • Jeff McCarthy looks at NP and ANC proposals for in mid-1992 is afflicted by a complex of too many third tier reforms to democratise government and ailments. Do these social, economic and political balance the struggle between centralised and symptoms of transition reflect a society in the throes regional power blocs in South Africa. of a great rebirth or a slow decline? Are we in search of a quick fix for the patient when the cure • Janis Grobbelaar comments on CP demands for necessarily lies in a process of slow recuperation? regional self-determination and assesses the prospects for the revival of a non-racial Afrikaner We need a diagnosis of the basic maladies before we nationalism. can find the proper treatment. The single most • Bob Klitgaard identifies a culture of corruption in important statistic quoted in the media at present is the public sector, and mixes the kind of strong that more than 7 600 people have died in political medicine administered in other societies to root out violence since President de Klerk's landmark speech corruption. He argues that preventive systems offer on 2 February 1990: some 3 400 in 1990, 2 580 in the best cure in the long term. 1991 and 1 660 to date in 1992. The continuity of intense civil conflict over the last three years is • Smith, Brann and Schroenn reconsider the debates clearly shown on our political and urban monitor on the merits and disadvantages of industry covers (see data trends). The massacre at Boipatong monopolies and nationalisation, recognising the in mid-June 1992 brought home the severity of this evident tensions between economic rationality and ailment. socio-political objectives. What causes public despair is that the profound It is obvious from these articles that there are no stresses in our society are increasing precisely at a simple solutions or quick fixes for South Africa. The time of reform and negotiation. The truism that ailments are long-established and the symptoms are periods of democratisation and transition are the most persistent. But there are long-term remedies which dangerous and unstable gives little succour. The might revive the body politic given the chance. We theory that a period of reform and heightened hope our readers find some consolation in the expectations followed by a period of recession and proactive solutions proposed by our contributors frustrated aspirations creates a volatile climate, along with their hard-headed realism! similarly brings no relief. The most such theories do is to contextualise and explain the high levels of Some exciting news on the publishing front. Indicator political violence. SA,