Chapter 11 Master Plan 11.1 Composition of Master Plan There are lots of existing plans which are closely related to attainment at strategic development goal as mentioned previously. In each sector, these existing plans are classified into some development projects. Also, the new development projects are formed and proposed to cope with the subjects that the existing plans could not settle. These are the projects composing the Master Plan. Furthermore, these projects are planed in due consideration of the priority development fields and the priority development subjects mentioned in Clause 10.3.4. 11.2 Estimate on Development Fund 11.2.1 Conversion of Past Development Investment Amount All the past development investment amount was converted to the constant price of end of 2009. The conversion factors were estimated based on the annual inflation rates for 10 years from 2000 to 2009 as shown in Table 12.2.1. Using these conversion factors, each annual development investment amount was converted to the constant price at end of 2009. Table 11.2.1 Conversion Factors to Constant Price at End of 2009 Year 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Inflation Rate 2.44% 2.30% 2.61% 2.76% 2.81% 2.67% 2.97% 3.59% 3.42% 0.29% Conversion Factor 1.273 1.227 1.228 1.210 1.181 1.141 1.124 1.112 1.070 1.003 Source: Proyecto de Memoria 2009 – Peru Central Bank (BCRP) 11.2.2 Estimated Development Investment Budget (1) Assumption of Development Investment Amount Since there are no available data on future development investment budget for central government, regional government and local government, it was estimated on the assumption that it would increased in proportion to the growing rate of GDP. (2) Actual Amount Invested Table 12.2.2 indicates the actual development investment amount in Ayacucho Region. Table 11.2.2 Actual Development Investment Amount in Ayacucho (S/.) Government 2005 2006 2007 2008 Central N/A 132,353,719 140,495,725 137,136,414 Region N/A 53,752,070 115,878,290 97,733,353 Local 55,801,742 92,393,038 112,579,097 N/A Total N/A 278,498,827 368,953,112 N/A Source: MEF Website(http://ofi.mef.gob.pe/bingos/transparencia_pi/mensual/default.aspx?y=2006&ap=ActProy) As shown in the above table, the latest available data for central government, regional government and local government are those in 2007. Thus, the study was carried out using 2007 data. (3) Estmate of Development Investment Budget In order to know the growing of development investment budget in future, the study was carried out for the average growing rate of GDP for 11 years (1999-2009). Table 11.2.3 shows the GDP issued by the Central Bank in Peru. From these data, the average growing rate of GDP for the past 10 years was estimated at 5.1%. On the other hand, as for the growing rate of GDP after 2010, MEF projects 5.0% for 2010, 5.8% for 2011, and 6.0% for 2012. In this Study, these projected growing rates of GDP were employed for 2010 to 2012. After 2013, 6% and 7% were 11-1 employed taking into consideration the past growing rate of GDP, MEF’s projected GOP and current economic condition in Peru. In addition, 3% after 2011 was also applied expecting that the serious economic condition would be realized. In addition, the total development investment Table 11.2.3 Actual GDP in Peru Accumulated Average Actual GDP* Growing amount of S/.368,953,112 for Ayacucho Region in Year Growing of Growing (S/.million） Rate Rate Rate 2007 was converted to the constant price of end of 1999 117,587 - - - 2009 shown in Table 11.2.2, using the conversion 2000 121,057 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 2001 121,317 0.2% 3.2% 1.6% factor indicated in Table 11.2.1. As a result, it was 2002 127,402 5.0% 8.3% 2.7% estimated at S/.410,276,000 at constant price of end 2003 132,544 4.0% 12.7% 3.0% 2004 139,141 5.0% 18.3% 3.4% of 2009. The development investment budget for 10 2005 148,640 6.8% 26.4% 4.0% years from 2011 to 2020 was estimated using this 2006 160,145 7.7% 36.2% 4.5% 2007 174,407 8.9% 48.3% 5.1% amount. Table 11.2.4 shows the estimated 2008 191,505 9.8% 62.9% 5.6% development investment budget for 10 years from 2009 193,155 0.9% 64.3% 5.1% Source: Proyecto de Memoria 2009 - (BCRP) 2011 to 2020. *: Constant price at1994 Table 11.2.4 Estimated Development Investment Budget in Ayacucho Region (Unit: S/.） 3 % of Growing Rate of GDP 6 % of Growing Rate of GDP 7 % of Growing Rate of GDP After After 2011 After 2013 2013 Year Growing Rate of Estimated Growing Rate Estimated Growing Rate Estimated GDP Amount of GDP Amount of GDP Amount 2007 - 410,276,000 - 410,276,000 - 410,276,000 2008 9.8% 450,483,000 9.8% 450,483,000 9.8% 450,483,000 2009 0.9% 454,537,000 0.9% 454,537,000 0.9% 454,537,000 2010 5.0% 477,264,000 5.0% 477,264,000 5.0% 477,264,000 2011 3.0% 491,582,000 5.8% 504,945,000 5.8% 504,945,000 2012 3.0% 506,329,000 6.0% 535,242,000 6.0% 535,242,000 2013 3.0% 521,519,000 6.0% 567,357,000 7.0% 572,709,000 2014 3.0% 537,165,000 6.0% 601,398,000 7.0% 612,799,000 2015 3.0% 553,280,000 6.0% 637,482,000 7.0% 655,695,000 2016 3.0% 569,878,000 6.0% 675,731,000 7.0% 701,594,000 2017 3.0% 586,974,000 6.0% 716,275,000 7.0% 750,706,000 2018 3.0% 604,583,000 6.0% 759,252,000 7.0% 803,255,000 2019 3.0% 622,720,000 6.0% 804,807,000 7.0% 859,483,000 2010 3.0% 641,402,000 6.0% 853,095,000 7.0% 919,647,000 2011-2020 Total 5,635,432,000 6,655,584,000 6,916,075,000 Source：GDP 2008-2009: Proyecto Memoria – Central Bank of Peru（BCRP） 2010-2012: Marco Macroeconomico Multianual 2010-2012 - MEF 2013-2020: JICAStudy Team( but 3% for 2011-2020) The development investment budget for 10 years from 2011 to 2020 in Ayacucho Region was estimated at S/.5,635 million for 3% of growing rate, S/.6,656 million for 6%of growing rate of GDP and S/.6,916 million for 7% of growing rate of GDP. (4) Development Investment Budget Applicable for Master Plan The above estimated development investment budget would cover the cost for presently on-going projects and O&M cost of completed ones as well as the new projects to be proposed in the future. In addition, this estimated budget covers all sectors. Accordingly, the development investment budget for the Master Plan being mainly composed of agriculture, livestock and road sectors, should be picked out from the estimated development 11-2 investment budget. According to the past data, the development investment budget for agriculture, livestock and road sectors, would occupy about 60% of total one. In addition, the development investment budget applicable for the Master Plan was assumed to be 20% of that for agriculture, livestock and road sectors since no data are available for the cost for presently on-going projects and O&M cost of completed ones as well as the new projects to be proposed in the future. Consequently, the development investment budget applicable for the Master Plan was estimated to be about S/.676 million for 3% of growing rate, about S/.799 million for 6%of growing rate of GDP and S/.830 million for 7% of growing rate of GDP. Thus, the Master Plan is formulated taking into account this applicable budget. 11.3 Vulnerability Measurement 11.3.1 Development Objective In Ayacucho region, there are frequent occurrence of natural disaters such as drought and floods, which bring about the decrease in agricultural production and deterioration of roads, so that farming activities and life conditions of farmers would become unstable. In the Master Plan, therefore, the “shortage of tackling capacity against natural disasters” is regared as vulnerability, so that the purpose of Vulnerability Mesurement Program is decided to be the “stabilization of farming activities and life conditions by improving the tackling capacity for vulnerability mitigation by GRA, local governments and communities”. 11.3.2 Basic Policies for Formulation of Development Program Constraints of the development and basic policy for formulation of the Program is shown in Table 11.3.1 Table 11.3.1 Constraints of Development and Basic Policies for Formulation of the Program Constraints Basic Policies for Frmulation of Development Program Decrease of the capacity on vulnerability Improvement of capacity of regional government through development of regional reduction due to lack of basic information and basic information communities’ poor physical capacity on Improve plannning capacity through development and/or update of regional vulnerability reduction basic information such as land use map Effective asstancce plan can not be prepared Enhancement of understunding on vulunerability through preparation and and implemented due to lack of informations distribution of hazard m,ap based on natural conditions data like climate and on use of natural resources topography etc.