C S A S S C C S Canadian Science Advisory Secretariat Secrétariat canadien de consultation scientifique Research Document 2011/105 Document de recherche 2011/105 Central and Arctic, and Québec Regions Région du Centre et de l’Arctique et du Québec Risk Assessment for ship-mediated Évaluation du risque d’introduction introductions of aquatic d’espèces aquatiques non indigènes par nonindigenous species to the les navires dans l’Arctique canadien Canadian Arctic F.T. Chan1, J.E. Bronnenhuber1,2, J.N. Bradie2, K.L. Howland3, N. Simard4 and S.A. Bailey2 1Great Lakes Institute for Environmental Research, University of Windsor, Windsor, ON 2Bayfield Institute, Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Burlington, ON 3Freshwater Institute, Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Winnipeg, MB 4 Institut Maurice-Lamontagne, Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Mont-Joli, QC This series documents the scientific basis for the La présente série documente les fondements evaluation of aquatic resources and ecosystems in scientifiques des évaluations des ressources et Canada. As such, it addresses the issues of the des écosystèmes aquatiques du Canada. Elle day in the time frames required and the traite des problèmes courants selon les documents it contains are not intended as échéanciers dictés. Les documents qu’elle definitive statements on the subjects addressed contient ne doivent pas être considérés comme but rather as progress reports on ongoing des énoncés définitifs sur les sujets traités, mais investigations. plutôt comme des rapports d’étape sur les études en cours. Research documents are produced in the official Les documents de recherche sont publiés dans language in which they are provided to the la langue officielle utilisée dans le manuscrit Secretariat. envoyé au Secrétariat. This document is available on the Internet at: Ce document est disponible sur l’Internet à: http://www.dfo-mpo.gc.ca/csas/ ISSN 1499-3848 (Printed / Imprimé) ISSN 1919-5044 (Online / En ligne) © Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada, 2012 © Sa Majesté la Reine du Chef du Canada, 2012 TABLE OF CONTENTS INTRODUCTION ..........................................................................................................................1 THE BIOLOGICAL INVASION PROCESS................................................................................1 THE ROLE OF SHIPPING AS A PATHWAY OF AQUATIC NIS INTRODUCTIONS ...............2 BALLAST WATER MANAGEMENT REGULATIONS ...............................................................4 HISTORY OF AQUATIC NIS IN THE CANADIAN ARCTIC......................................................5 SPECIFIC ISSUES OF CONCERN TO THE CANADIAN ARCTIC..............................................6 BIOLOGICAL INVASIONS IN THE ARCTIC.............................................................................6 CLIMATE CHANGE ..................................................................................................................6 SHIP-MEDIATED INVASIONS VIA DOMESTIC SHIPPING ACTIVITIES ................................7 HULL FOULING IN THE ARCTIC .............................................................................................7 METHODS ....................................................................................................................................8 STUDY AREA ...........................................................................................................................8 DETERMINING HULL FOULING-MEDIATED INVASION RISK...............................................8 Step 1A: Estimating Probability of Arrival (Hull Fouling) ..................................................8 Step 1B: Estimating Probability of Survival (Hull Fouling)................................................9 Step 1C: Calculating Probability of Introduction (Hull Fouling).........................................9 Step 2: Estimating the Magnitude of Consequences (Hull Fouling) ...............................10 Step 3: Calculating Final Invasion Risk (Hull Fouling)....................................................10 ESTIMATING SHIP-MEDIATED SECONDARY SPREAD (HULL FOULING) ........................10 DETERMINING BALLAST-MEDIATED INVASION RISK .......................................................11 Step 1A: Estimating Probability of Arrival (Ballast Water) ..............................................11 Step 1B: Estimating Probability of Survival (Ballast Water)............................................13 Step 1C: Calculating Probability of Introduction (Ballast Water) ....................................14 Step 2: Estimating the Magnitude of Consequences (Ballast Water).............................14 Step 3: Calculating Final Invasion Risk (Ballast Water) .................................................14 ESTIMATING SHIP-MEDIATED SECONDARY SPREAD (BALLAST WATER).....................15 RESULTS AND DISCUSSION ...................................................................................................15 VESSEL ARRIVALS IN THE CANADIAN ARCTIC.................................................................15 Probability of Arrival (Hull Fouling) ......................................................................................16 International Merchant Vessels ......................................................................................16 Coastal Domestic Merchant Vessels..............................................................................16 International Non-merchant Vessel Arrivals ...................................................................16 Coastal Domestic Non-merchant Vessel Arrivals...........................................................17 iii Arctic Non-merchant Vessel Arrivals..............................................................................17 Probability of Survival (Hull Fouling)....................................................................................17 Probability of Introduction (Hull Fouling)..............................................................................17 Magnitude of Consequences (Hull Fouling).........................................................................18 Final Invasion Risk (Hull Fouling) ........................................................................................18 SECONDARY SPREAD BY HULL FOULING .....................................................................18 BALLAST WATER DISCHARGES IN THE CANADIAN ARCTIC ...........................................18 Probability of Arrival (Ballast Water) ....................................................................................19 International Merchant Vessels ......................................................................................19 Coastal Domestic Merchant Vessels..............................................................................19 Probability of Survival (Ballast Water) .................................................................................19 International Merchant Vessels ......................................................................................19 Coastal Domestic Merchant Vessels..............................................................................20 Probability of Introduction (Ballast Water) ...........................................................................20 Magnitude of Consequences (Ballast Water) ......................................................................20 Final Invasion Risk (Ballast Water)......................................................................................21 SECONDARY SPREAD BY BALLAST WATER..................................................................21 THE FUTURE OF SHIP-MEDIATED INVASIONS IN THE ARCTIC.......................................21 CONCLUSIONS..........................................................................................................................22 REFERENCES ...........................................................................................................................22 TABLES ......................................................................................................................................32 FIGURES ....................................................................................................................................48 APPENDICES.............................................................................................................................60 iv Correct citation for this publication: Chan, F.T., Bronnenhuber, J.E., Bradie, J.N., Howland, K., Simard, N. and Bailey, S.A. 2012. Risk assessment for ship-mediated introductions of aquatic nonindigenous species to the Canadian Arctic. DFO Can. Sci. Advis. Sec. Res. Doc. 2011/105. vi + 93 p. ABSTRACT Ballast water has historically been the predominant ship-mediated vector for aquatic non- indigenous species (NIS) introductions to Canada, while hull fouling is recognized as a leading sub-vector for the introduction of marine aquatic NIS worldwide. To the best of our knowledge, there has been no ship-mediated NIS established in the Canadian Arctic. However, if shipping activities increase as expected with a warming climate, propagule pressure will also increase and the Arctic will be more vulnerable to future invasions. The objective of this report was to conduct a relative risk assessment of shipping vectors (hull fouling and ballast water) to Canadian Arctic ports. First, the probability of introduction was estimated by combining the individual probabilities of successful transition through each stage of the invasion process