Success and Fail Factors in Battery Electric Vehicle Adoption A comparison between Norway and Sweden Master of Science Thesis For the degree of Master of Science in Management of Technology at Delft University of Technology By Ing. Eric S. Tol Student number 1519042 Project duration Dec 2016 – Aug 2017 Thesis committee Prof. Dr. G.P. van Wee Chairman, Delft University of Technology Dr. Ir. J.A. Annema Supervisor, Delft University of Technology Dr. Ir. U. Pesch Supervisor, Delft University of Technology [Page intentionally left blank] 2 CONTENTS LIST OF FIGURES ............................................................................................................................ 6 LIST OF TABLES .............................................................................................................................. 7 LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS ................................................................................................................ 8 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ................................................................................................................. 9 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ................................................................................................................ 10 1. INTRODUCTION ....................................................................................................................... 12 1.1 Research problem ............................................................................................................. 12 1.2 Knowledge gaps ................................................................................................................ 12 1.3 Problem statement & research question .......................................................................... 13 1.4 Research objective and added value of the research ....................................................... 13 1.4.1 Societal relevance ...................................................................................................... 13 1.4.2 Managerial relevance ................................................................................................. 13 1.4.3 Scientific relevance ..................................................................................................... 13 1.5 Research scope .................................................................................................................. 14 1.6 Thesis structure ................................................................................................................. 15 2. THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK .................................................................................................... 17 2.1 Technological innovation diffusion ................................................................................... 17 2.1.1 New versus incumbent technologies ......................................................................... 17 2.1.2 Technology development and diffusion ..................................................................... 18 2.1.3 Potential diffusion influencing factors ....................................................................... 19 2.2 Socio-technical lens ........................................................................................................... 20 2.3 Functions of Innovations Systems ..................................................................................... 21 3. METHODOLOGY ...................................................................................................................... 25 3.1 Desk research .................................................................................................................... 25 3.2 Interviews .......................................................................................................................... 25 3.2.1 Interview design ......................................................................................................... 25 3.2.1 Interview schedule ..................................................................................................... 27 3.3 History Event Analysis ....................................................................................................... 28 4. SYSTEM FUNCTIONS OF BEVs IN NORWAY AND SWEDEN ...................................................... 29 4.1 BEV statistics comparison Norway and Sweden ............................................................... 29 4.2 History Event Analysis process .......................................................................................... 33 4.3 BEV History Event Analysis Norway .................................................................................. 33 4.3.2 The first BEV related activities 1973-1989 ................................................................. 33 3 4.3.3 Norwegian support of the PIVCO project in 1990 ...................................................... 34 4.3.4 Further development of PIVCO 1991-1997 ................................................................ 35 4.3.5 Further market formation for BEVs in Norway 1998-2001 ........................................ 36 4.3.5 The end of domestic BEV manufacturers in Norway 2002-2011 ............................... 37 4.3.6 The accelerated increase of BEV market share in Norway 2012-2016 ...................... 39 4.4 BEV history event analysis Sweden ................................................................................... 40 4.4.1 Swedish domestic car manufacturers and alternative fuels 1927-1984 .................... 40 4.4.2 ‘Clean’ vehicles in Sweden 1985-2002 ....................................................................... 41 4.4.2 The rise and fall of FFVs and the emergence of BEV policy programs 2003-2010 ..... 43 4.4.3 Increased focus on electromobility in Sweden 2011-2016 ........................................ 45 4.5 System Functions BEV comparison Norway and Sweden ................................................. 46 4.5.1 F1: Entrepreneurial activities ..................................................................................... 47 4.5.2 F2: Knowledge creation .............................................................................................. 48 4.5.3 F3: Knowledge diffusion through networks ............................................................... 49 4.5.4 F4: Guidance of the search ......................................................................................... 50 4.5.5 F5: Market formation ................................................................................................. 51 4.5.6 F6: Resource mobilization .......................................................................................... 52 4.5.7 F7: Creation of legitimacy / counteract resistance to change ................................... 53 4.5.8 F#: External BEV influencing factors........................................................................... 53 4.6 Transferability of BEV policies and incentives................................................................... 55 4.7 Conclusion History Event Analysis ..................................................................................... 57 5. MOTORS OF CHANGE .............................................................................................................. 58 5.1 System Function interactions and Motors of Change ....................................................... 58 5.2 BEV system functions interactions Norway analysis ......................................................... 60 5.3 BEV system functions interactions Sweden analysis......................................................... 61 5.4 BEV motors of change comparison ................................................................................... 61 5.6 Motors of change conclusion ............................................................................................ 62 6. CONCLUSION & DISCUSSION ................................................................................................... 63 6.1 Conclusion ......................................................................................................................... 63 6.2 Discussion .......................................................................................................................... 63 6.2.1 Institutional difference and implemented market formations .................................. 63 6.2.2 BEV introduction and selection .................................................................................. 64 6.2.3 Available energy resources ........................................................................................ 65 6.2.4 Swedish incumbent vehicle industry in Sweden ........................................................ 65 4 6.3 Contribution of the study .................................................................................................. 66 6.3.1 Scientific contribution ................................................................................................ 66 6.3.2 Managerial contribution ............................................................................................ 67 6.4 Limitations of the study & recommendations for further research ................................. 67 LITERATURE SOURCES ................................................................................................................. 70 APPENDIX .................................................................................................................................... 74 I: Further