UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA SAN DIEGO Race and Political Representation in Brazil A dissertation submitted in partial satisfaction of the requirements for the degree Doctor of Philosophy in Political Science by Andrew Janusz Committee in charge: Professor Scott Desposato, Co-Chair Professor Zoltan Hajnal, Co-Chair Professor Gary Jacobson Professor Simeon Nichter Professor Carlos Waisman 2019 Copyright Andrew Janusz, 2019 All rights reserved. The dissertation of Andrew Janusz is approved, and it is acceptable in quality and form for publication on microfilm and electronically: Co-Chair Co-Chair University of California San Diego 2019 iii DEDICATION For my mother, Betty. iv TABLE OF CONTENTS Signature Page . iii Dedication . iv Table of Contents . v List of Figures . vi List of Tables . vii Acknowledgements . viii Vita ............................................... x Abstract of the Dissertation . xi Introduction . 1 Chapter 1 The Political Importance of Race . 10 Chapter 2 Racial Positioning in Brazilian Elections . 20 Appendix A . 49 Chapter 3 Ascribed Race and Electoral Success . 51 Appendix A . 84 Chapter 4 Race and Substantive Representation . 87 Appendix A . 118 Appendix B . 120 Chapter 5 Conclusion . 122 Bibliography . 123 v LIST OF FIGURES Figure 2.1: Inconsistency in Candidate Responses Across Elections . 27 Figure 2.2: Politicians Relinquish Membership in Small Racial Groups . 31 Figure 2.3: Politicians Switch Into Large Racial Groups . 32 Figure 2.4: Mayors Retain Membership in the Largest Racial Group . 34 Figure 2.5: Mayors Switch Into the Largest Racial Group . 35 Figure 2.6: Racial Ambiguity and Racial Switching . 37 Figure 2.7: Politicians Remain in Large Groups . 43 Figure 2.8: Politicians Switch Into Large Groups . 44 Figure 2.9: Impact of Racial Ascription on Self-Classification . 46 Figure 3.1: Racial Disparities in Descriptive Representation . 52 Figure 3.2: Candidacy Rates and Electoral Success by Racial Group . 64 Figure 3.3: Party Campaign Contributions by Race . 66 Figure 3.4: Campaign Contributions by Candidate Occupation . 74 Figure 3.5: Campaign Contributions by Candidate Race and Occupation . 75 Figure 3.6: Campaign Spending by Candidate Race . 76 Figure 3.7: Racial Disparities in Descriptive Representation . 84 Figure 4.1: Afro-Brazilian Descriptive Representation in the Chamber of Deputies . 88 Figure 4.2: Introduction of Afro-Brazilian Interest Bills . 116 Figure 4.3: Afro-Brazilian Population by State . 119 vi LIST OF TABLES Table 2.1: Patterns of Racial Self-Classification in 2014 and 2016 . 28 Table 2.2: Conditional Logit Models of Racial Self-Identification . 42 Table 2.3: Conditional Logit Models of Racial Self-Identification . 49 Table 2.4: Conditional Logit Models of Racial Self-Identification . 50 Table 3.1: Candidate Racial Self-Classification vs Coder Classification . 61 Table 3.2: Percent Party Campaign Contributions . 68 Table 3.3: Educational Attainment by Candidate Race . 71 Table 3.4: Occupation by Candidate Race . 71 Table 3.5: Regression of Candidate Vote Share (Logged) . 80 Table 3.6: Candidate Attribute T-Test Results . 85 Table 3.7: Percent Party Campaign Contributions (Log) . 86 Table 4.1: Unemployment Rate (Population above 16 years old) . 91 Table 4.2: Average Monthly Household Income Per Capita . 92 Table 4.3: Percentage of Brazilians in Poverty . 92 Table 4.4: Average Years of Formal Education (Population above 15 years old) . 94 Table 4.5: Support for Increasing Spending on Public Education . 95 Table 4.6: Adequate Sanitation . 96 Table 4.7: Homicides in Brazil . 97 Table 4.8: Attribution of Afro-Brazilian Poverty . 98 Table 4.9: Personal Experiences with Racism . 99 Table 4.10: Attitudes on Racial Policies . 100 Table 4.11: Afro-Brazilian Interest Bills . 111 Table 4.12: Zero-Inflated Negative Binomial Model Results . 114 Table 4.13: Federal Deputies Interviewed . 118 Table 4.14: Afro-Brazilian Interest Bill Keywords . 120 Table 4.15: Number of Bills Sponsored Yearly by Issue Area . 121 Table 4.16: Political Party Ideology Classification . 121 vii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This dissertation would not have been possible without the contributions of many remarkable individuals. I benefited enormously from the generosity of innumerable Brazilians, who took the time to speak with me about racial dynamics and politics. They shared their ideas, recounted their experiences, and went out of their way to ensure that I could successfully complete my project. A number of Brazilianists shared their expertise. George Avelino, Luiz Augusto Campos, Gabriel Cepaluni, Carlos Machado, Gladys Mitchell Walthour and Ollie Johnson provided feedback and suggestions on different aspects of the dissertation project. Gladys, I am especially appreciative for your advice and encouragement. The project also benefited immensely from the expertise and generosity of Brazilians including Igor Acacio,´ Leonado Sangali Barone, Claudia Cerqueira, Tito Brige de Carvalho, Mariana Carvalho, Cintia Pinheiro, and Karina Furtado Rodrigues. While conducting research I spent significant time living in Rio de Janeiro. My time there was made incredibly more enjoyable thanks to the friendship of Diego Altieri, Mariavittoria Petrosino, Fabio Romano, Amanda Silva, Ariadne Marciano, and Nicolis Amaral. In Rio de Janeiro, Nayt Junior shared his political expertise, as well as facilitated introductions to a number of party leaders, elected politicians, political candidates, and Black Movement activists. Israel Gomes and Daniel Guimaraes˜ Junior provided an insider’s perspective on party dynamics and made sure that I was always invited to Afro-Brazilian cultural, religious, and political events. Daniel, you can now stop asking when I am going to finish the dissertation and begin questioning when the book is going to be published. I was fortunate to receive funding from a variety of sources to pursue this research. My exploratory work was possible through the generous support of the Tinker Foundation, the Center for Latin American Studies at UCSD, and the UCSD International Center. Following my advancement to candidacy, the grants I received from the National Science Foundation and Department of Education provided support to conduct substantial fieldwork. I thank these funders for their support. Graduate school is challenging, but my friends at UCSD made it an pleasant experience. Thank you Matthew Bergman, Shannon Carcelli, Nazita Lajevardi, John Kuk, Matt Nanes, Brian viii Tsay, Jason Wu, and Jack Zhang for your advice, encouragement, and support. At UCSD, I was incredibly fortunate to work under the supervision of a phenomenal dissertation committee. Scott Desposato, Zoltan Hajnal, Simeon Nichter, Gary Jacobson, Kate Antonovics, and Carlos Waisman’s guidance was critical to the development of this project. Conversations with them challenged my thinking about race relations in Brazil and their political implications. Beyond the dissertation, their mentorship shapes how I view and study social phenomena. I am particularly thankful for the guidance I received from my dissertation co-chairs, Scott Desposato and Zoltan Hajnal. Their commitment to my project and my development as a scholar have been instrumental to my success me. I would also like to thank a number of non-committee members for their support. Erica Moreno and Richard Witmer encouraged me to consider pursing a Ph.D. and have provided consistent support throughout my graduate career. At UCSD, my project has benefited from the feedback of Marissa Abrajano, Claire Adida, Karen Ferree, David Mares, Phil Roedder, Peter Smith, and David Wiens. Lastly, I want to thank my family. Emily, you have been my academic role model since we were kids. I am happy that we have not just grown older, but rather, have grown closer. Dad, thanks for your consistent encouragement and support. Our conversations about God and politics influence how I see the world and my place in it. Finally, thank you Mom. You are my number one supporter, a consistent source of encouragement, and the hardest working person I know. Thank you for all the sacrifices you have made to ensure that I succeed. ix VITA 2011 B.A. in International Relations cum laude, Creighton University 2014 M.A. in Political Science, University of California San Diego 2019 Ph. D. in Political Science, University of California San Diego PUBLICATIONS Janusz, Andrew. “Candidate Race and Electoral Outcomes: Evidence From Brazil”, Politics, Groups, and Identities, (6) 4: 702-724, 2018. x ABSTRACT OF THE DISSERTATION Race and Political Representation in Brazil by Andrew Janusz Doctor of Philosophy in Political Science University of California San Diego, 2019 Professor Scott Desposato, Co-Chair Professor Zoltan Hajnal, Co-Chair Brazil is Latin America’s largest democracy and home to the largest African descendant population of any country outside of Africa. Despite comprising a majority of the Brazilian population, though, Afro-Brazilians hold less than 10 percent of the elected positions in Brazil’s Congress. In this dissertation, I seek to answer two central questions about the political marginalization of African descendants. First, why do Afro-Brazilians not attain representation in Brazil’s Congress commensurate with their numerical strength? And second, how do racial disparities in electoral outcomes affect the representation of Afro-Brazilian’ policy interests? To answer these questions, it is first necessary to examine how Brazilian elites racially identify themselves. I argue the absence of official rules for racial group membership and the xi political