SOUTH-EAST FINLAND – RUSSIA ENPI CBC 2007 – 2013 Climate Proof Living Environment (CliPLivE) Geological and Environmental Risks in St. Petersburg. Practical Recommendations for Climate Change Adaptation Olga Tomilina, Julia Menshova, Galina Savenkova, Igor Bogatyrev, Daria Ryabchuk, Dmitry Frank-Kamenetsky, Artem Pavlovsky St. Petersburg 2014 This Programme is co-funded by the European Union, the Russian Federation and the Republic of Finland SOUTH-EAST FINLAND – RUSSIA ENPI CBC 2007 – 2013 Climate Proof Living Environment (CliPLivE) State Geological Unitary Company «Mineral» Committee for Nature Use, Environmental Protection and Ecological Safety of St.Petersburg City Administration A.P. Karpinsky Russian Geological Research Institute Geological and Environmental Risks in St. Petersburg. Practical Recommendations for Climate Change Adaptation Olga Tomilina, Julia Menshova, Galina Savenkova, Igor Bogatyrev, Daria Ryabchuk, Dmitry Frank-Kamenetsky, Artem Pavlovsky St. Petersburg 2014 This Project is co-funded by the European Union, the Russian Federation and the Republic of Finland SOUTH-EAST FINLAND - RUSSIA ENPI CBC 2007 – 2013 Climate Proof Living Environment (CliPLivE) Contents Introduction................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 1. Description of the study area ........................................................................................................................................................................................................ 4 1.1. Geography, nature and climate .......................................................................................................................................................................................... 6 1.2. Social and economic characteristics ................................................................................................................................................................................ 6 2. Characteristics of observed and projected climate change on the territory of St.Petersburg ....................................................................... 6 2.1. Climate characteristics of Saint Petersburg ................................................................................................................................................................. 8 2.2. Forecast of climatic variables changes for Saint Petersburg .............................................................................................................................18 3. Identifying hazards and estimating potential risks in the study area .....................................................................................................................10 3.1. Methodological approach for the geological and environmental risk assessment .................................................................................14 3.2. Assessment of the potential risks caused by the climate-independent hazardous natural processes ......................................... 4 3.2.1. Reliable layer depth .....................................................................................................................................................................................................17 3.2.2. Biogenic Gas Formation .............................................................................................................................................................................................172 3.2.3 Head water impact ........................................................................................................................................................................................................20 3.2.4. Karst Processes ..............................................................................................................................................................................................................22 3.2.5. Neotectonic Areas .........................................................................................................................................................................................................23 3.2.6. Palaeovalleys Impact ...................................................................................................................................................................................................23 3.2.7. Radon Hazard ..................................................................................................................................................................................................................23 3.2.8. Surface Slope ...................................................................................................................................................................................................................27 3.3. Assessment of the potential risks caused by the climate-dependent hazardous natural processes .............................................. 7 3.3.1. Coastal erosion ...............................................................................................................................................................................................................29 3.3.2. Surface Water Flooding ..............................................................................................................................................................................................293 3.3.3. Ground water flooding ...............................................................................................................................................................................................44 3.4. Integrated natural risk assessment ................................................................................................................................................................................42 4. Practical recommendations on climate change adaptation measures for St.Petersburg area ....................................................................58 4.1. Climate change impact on sectors and assets of St.Petersburg municipal economy .............................................................................51 4.1.1. Engineering and transport networks, transport ............................................................................................................................................51 4.1.2. Construction ....................................................................................................................................................................................................................51 4.1.3. Urban planning and land tenure ............................................................................................................................................................................52 4.1.4. Economic consequences ............................................................................................................................................................................................53 4.1.5. Public health ....................................................................................................................................................................................................................54 4.2. Practical recommendations for climate change adaptation and stages of recommendations implementation .......................56 4.2.1. Practical recommendations .....................................................................................................................................................................................57 4.2.2. Stages of Recommendations implementation ................................................................................................................................................. 7 4.2.3. Monitoring and implementation risks ................................................................................................................................................................596 5. The best practices of climate change adaptation implemented in Europe ...........................................................................................................60 6. Conclusions ..........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................61 References .................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................64 5 3 SOUTH-EAST FINLAND - RUSSIA ENPI CBC 2007 – 2013 Climate Proof Living Environment (CliPLivE) Introduction CliPLivE (Climate Proof Living Environment) project was carried out in framework of the South-East Finland – Russia ENPI CBC 2007-2013 Programme. (http://www.southeastfinrusnpi.fi/). The aim of this Programme was to promote cross-border co-operation across the Finnish-Russian border between South Karelia, South Savo, Kymenlaakso, Uusima, St.Petersburg and the Leningrad Region. It was co-funded by the European Union from the European Neighborhood and Partnership Instrument (ENPI), the Russian Federation and the Republic of Finland.