CREWE & NANTWICH POLL Fieldwork dates : 15th- 18th May 2008 Table 9 Q. You may be aware that a by-election will be held in Crewe & Nantwich on 22 May following the death of Gwyneth Dunwoody. How likely or not do you think you are to vote in the by-election on a scale from 1 to 10, where 1= Certain NOT to vote through to 10=absolutely certain to vote? Base : All GENDER AGE EMPLOYMENT STATUS Looking after Permanentl Full time home/ y sick/ Total Male Female 18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+ Employed Unemployed student Retired family disabled Other Unweighted Base 1001 492 509 88 175 203 183 153 199 613 30 31 228 62 19 18 Weighted Base 1001 491 510 111 169 173 197 176 173 631 30 30 160 70 50 30 10 - Absolutely certain 617 299 318 24 93 102 130 134 134 374 14 8 122 45 31 23 to vote 62% 61% 62% 22% 55% 59% 66% 76% 77% 59% 48% 26% 76% 64% 63% 76% 9 39 19 19 5 5 7 7 9 5 24 1 3 6 2 - 3 4% 4% 4% 5% 3% 4% 4% 5% 3% 4% 3% 9% 4% 3% - 11% 8 71 38 33 16 13 12 14 9 8 48 2 3 8 6 2 2 7% 8% 7% 14% 8% 7% 7% 5% 5% 8% 8% 10% 5% 8% 4% 6% 7 34 14 21 8 5 11 7 1 2 20 1 2 2 3 7 - 3% 3% 4% 7% 3% 7% 3% 1% 1% 3% 2% 7% 1% 4% 14% - 6 25 11 14 6 4 6 3 4 1 13 3 2 3 2 2 - 2% 2% 3% 5% 2% 4% 2% 2% 1% 2% 10% 7% 2% 3% 4% - 5 66 32 34 12 14 15 12 5 9 52 1 - 8 6 - - 7% 7% 7% 10% 8% 9% 6% 3% 5% 8% 2% - 5% 8% - - 4 6 3 3 2 1 1 - 2 - 1 - 3 - - - 2 1% 1% 1% 2% * * - 1% - * - 10% - - - 6% 3 12 5 7 5 2 3 1 - 1 7 1 2 1 - - - 1% 1% 1% 4% 1% 2% 1% - * 1% 5% 7% * - - - 2 7 5 2 1 3 - 3 - - 7 - - - - - - 1% 1% * 1% 2% - 2% - - 1% - - - - - - 1 - Certain not to vote 125 65 60 33 30 16 20 12 14 86 6 7 11 7 8 - 13% 13% 12% 30% 17% 9% 10% 7% 8% 14% 21% 24% 7% 9% 16% - Mean 7.99 7.92 8.05 5.54 7.39 8.05 8.28 8.92 8.81 7.82 6.94 5.99 8.85 8.31 7.93 9.41 Standard Deviation 3.16 3.23 3.10 3.56 3.51 2.92 2.99 2.49 2.66 3.26 3.70 3.59 2.55 2.85 3.27 1.48 Prepared by ComRes * = Less than .5 CREWE & NANTWICH POLL Fieldwork dates : 15th- 18th May 2008 Table 10 Q. You may be aware that a by-election will be held in Crewe & Nantwich on 22 May following the death of Gwyneth Dunwoody. How likely or not do you think you are to vote in the by-election on a scale from 1 to 10, where 1= Certain NOT to vote through to 10=absolutely certain to vote? Base : All Q3Q1 VOTING INTENTION Total Conservative Labour Lib Dem UKIP Green SNP Plaid Cymru BNP Other Unweighted Base 1001 365 255 89 8 1 - - 2 25 Weighted Base 1001 354 257 90 11 1 - - 2 25 10 - Absolutely certain 617 282 181 60 10 1 - - 1 13 to vote 62% 80% 71% 67% 91% 100% - - 40% 53% 9 39 18 8 3 1 - - - - 2 4% 5% 3% 4% 9% - - - - 9% 8 71 30 24 7 - - - - - 2 7% 8% 9% 8% - - - - - 7% 7 34 8 15 4 - - - - - 2 3% 2% 6% 4% - - - - - 9% 6 25 4 11 2 - - - - - 1 2% 1% 4% 2% - - - - - 4% 5 66 12 18 14 - - - - 1 4 7% 3% 7% 15% - - - - 60% 18% 4 6 - - - - - - - - - 1% - - - - - - - - - 3 12 - - - - - - - - - 1% - - - - - - - - - 2 7 - - - - - - - - - 1% - - - - - - - - - 1 - Certain not to vote 125 - - - - - - - - - 13% - - - - - - - - - Mean 7.99 9.50 9.09 8.83 9.91 10.00 - - 6.98 8.43 Standard Deviation 3.16 1.17 1.59 1.89 0.30 - - - 3.35 2.00 Prepared by ComRes * = Less than .5 CREWE & NANTWICH POLL Fieldwork dates : 15th- 18th May 2008 Table 12 Q. In the coming by-election, do you think you will vote Conservative, Labour, Lib Dem or for another party? Base : All respondents saying 5-10 likely to vote GENDER AGE EMPLOYMENT STATUS Looking after Permanentl Full time home/ y sick/ Total Male Female 18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+ Employed Unemployed student Retired family disabled Other Unweighted Base 857 417 440 56 139 178 161 142 181 516 22 19 211 56 16 17 Weighted Base 851 413 439 70 134 153 173 162 159 529 22 18 148 63 42 28 Conservative 341 154 187 19 55 60 68 74 65 219 5 5 66 26 8 14 40% 37% 43% 28% 41% 39% 39% 46% 41% 41% 21% 26% 44% 41% 18% 49% Labour 178 93 84 11 28 33 40 42 24 104 9 3 28 16 15 3 21% 23% 19% 15% 21% 21% 23% 26% 15% 20% 42% 15% 19% 25% 36% 10% Lib Dem 76 37 39 12 17 12 13 8 15 50 - 3 9 7 3 3 9% 9% 9% 18% 12% 8% 7% 5% 9% 10% - 15% 6% 12% 8% 11% UKIP 10 8 2 - 1 1 1 3 4 2 - - 1 2 3 2 1% 2% * - 1% 1% 1% 2% 2% * - - * 4% 8% 6% Green 1 1 - - - - 1 - - 1 - - - - - - * * - - - - 1% - - * - - - - - - BNP 2 1 1 - - 1 - 1 - 2 - - - - - - * * * - - 1% - 1% - * - - - - - - Other 25 13 12 6 7 3 - 5 5 16 3 2 4 1 - - 3% 3% 3% 8% 5% 2% - 3% 3% 3% 12% 11% 2% 2% - - Refused 56 27 29 1 5 9 15 10 16 30 2 - 14 3 5 2 7% 7% 7% 2% 3% 6% 9% 6% 10% 6% 9% - 9% 5% 11% 6% Don't know 161 78 83 20 22 35 35 19 30 105 4 6 27 8 8 5 19% 19% 19% 29% 16% 23% 20% 12% 19% 20% 16% 32% 18% 12% 19% 17% Prepared by ComRes * = Less than .5 CREWE & NANTWICH POLL Fieldwork dates : 15th- 18th May 2008 Table 16 Q. Do you think these politicians are an asset or liability for their party? Conservative leader : David Cameron Base : All GENDER AGE EMPLOYMENT STATUS Looking after Permanentl Full time home/ y sick/ Total Male Female 18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+ Employed Unemployed student Retired family disabled Other Unweighted Base 1001 492 509 88 175 203 183 153 199 613 30 31 228 62 19 18 Weighted Base 1001 491 510 111 169 173 197 176 173 631 30 30 160 70 50 30 Asset 524 263 261 51 88 93 103 103 86 359 14 10 74 41 8 19 52% 54% 51% 46% 52% 53% 52% 58% 50% 57% 48% 33% 46% 58% 15% 62% Liability 150 88 62 14 33 21 29 30 24 89 4 10 24 9 10 4 15% 18% 12% 12% 19% 12% 15% 17% 14% 14% 12% 32% 15% 13% 20% 14% Neither 201 90 111 32 31 38 45 23 33 117 5 5 38 11 22 4 20% 18% 22% 29% 18% 22% 23% 13% 19% 18% 18% 18% 23% 15% 43% 12% Don't know 126 49 77 15 17 22 21 21 30 66 7 5 24 10 11 4 13% 10% 15% 13% 10% 12% 11% 12% 18% 10% 22% 17% 15% 14% 21% 12% Prepared by ComRes * = Less than .5 CREWE & NANTWICH POLL Fieldwork dates : 15th- 18th May 2008 Table 17 Q. Do you think these politicians are an asset or liability for their party? Conservative leader : David Cameron Base : All Q3Q1 VOTING INTENTION Total Conservative Labour Lib Dem UKIP Green SNP Plaid Cymru BNP Other Unweighted Base 1001 365 255 89 8 1 - - 2 25 Weighted Base 1001 354 257 90 11 1 - - 2 25 Asset 524 291 95 40 5 1 - - 1 7 52% 82% 37% 44% 43% 100% - - 60% 26% Liability 150 10 73 19 1 - - - 1 8 15% 3% 28% 21% 9% - - - 40% 30% Neither 201 39 58 23 5 - - - - 8 20% 11% 23% 26% 47% - - - - 33% Don't know 126 14 31 8 - - - - - 3 13% 4% 12% 9% - - - - - 11% Prepared by ComRes * = Less than .5 CREWE & NANTWICH POLL Fieldwork dates : 15th- 18th May 2008 Table 18 Q. Do you think these politicians are an asset or liability for their party? Labour leader : Gordon Brown Base : All GENDER AGE EMPLOYMENT STATUS Looking after Permanentl Full time home/ y sick/ Total Male Female 18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+ Employed Unemployed student Retired family disabled Other Unweighted Base 1001 492 509 88 175 203 183 153 199 613 30 31 228 62 19 18 Weighted Base 1001 491 510 111 169 173 197 176 173 631 30 30 160 70 50 30 Asset 127 80 47 24 23 15 16 22 27 65 3 4 30 7 14 4 13% 16% 9% 22% 14% 9% 8% 12% 15% 10% 9% 14% 19% 10% 29% 14% Liability 603 311 292 59 101 106 128 111 98 403 18 17 84 37 23 20 60% 63% 57% 53% 60% 61% 65% 63% 56% 64% 61% 57% 52% 53% 46% 68% Neither 180 69 111 16 35 34 41 29 25 118 4 5 31 15 7 - 18% 14% 22% 14% 21% 20% 21% 17% 14% 19% 15% 16% 19% 21% 15% - Don't know 91 31 60 13 10 18 13 14 24 44 4 4 16 11 5 5 9% 6% 12% 11% 6% 10% 6% 8% 14% 7% 15% 13% 10% 16% 11% 18% Prepared by ComRes * = Less than .5 CREWE & NANTWICH POLL Fieldwork dates : 15th- 18th May 2008 Table 19 Q.