Innovation & Breakthroughs on the Road to Abundance Peter H. Diamandis, MD November 2013 Live Tweeting? I’m @PeterDiamandis Exponential Technology Crowdsourcing Genius Live Tweeting? I’m @PeterDiamandis Human development over 150,000+ years… LOCAL + LINEAR Human development over 150,000+ years… EXPONENTIAL + GLOBAL Disruptive Stress /Opportunity LINEAR EXPONENTIAL 1996 2012 April 2012 MarketCap: $28B Bankrupt MarketCap: $1B Employees: 140,000 Employees: 17,000 Employees: 13 The New “Kodak Moment” LINEAR EXPONENTIAL In 10 years, it’s predicted that 40% of the Future 500 Companies will no longer exist. * Babson Olin School of Business, Fast Company April 2011, page 121. LINEAR EXPONENTIAL “The average lifespan of an S&P 500 company has decreased from: 67 years (1920’s) 15 years (today)” - Richard Foster, Yale University Singularity University – 10^9+ NASA – AUTODESK – GOOGLE – CISCO– NOKIA – GENENTECH – KAUFFMAN www.SingularityU.org Mountain View, California LINEAR EXPONENTIAL Exponential Technology Crowd/Community Tools 1. Computation/Networks 1. Incentive Competitions 2. Artificial Intelligence 2. (Big) Data Mining 3. Robotics 3. Gamification 4. 3D Printing 4. DIY Communities 5. Synthetic Biology 5. On Demand Workforce 6. Digital Medicine 6. Crowd Creativity 7. Crowd Funding Innovation Partnership Program What does EXPONENTIAL growth feel like? Take 30 13 12 LINEAR 11 paces… 10 09 08 07 06 05 04 03 02 30 meters 01 Take 30 EXPONENTIAL steps… 26X around the Earth! 01 02 04 08 16 32 64 128 256 … 1,073,741,824 meters “6D’s” – Exponential Framework Digitized (Information Tech) Democratize Deceptive Demonetize Disruptive Dematerialize Deceptive & Disruptive Linear Vs. Exponential Growth 0 0.01 150 Exponential Trend 1 0.02 140 2 0.04 130 Linear Trend 120 3 0.08 110 4 0.16 100 5 0.32 90 (Disruptive) 80 6 0.64 70 7 1.28 60 8 2.56 50 40 Knee of Curve 9 5.12 30 10 10.2 20 (Deceptive) 10 11 20.5 12 40.9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 13 81.9 Dematerialization 20 Years later… All of these fit in your pocket… … and come for free on your smart phone! Demonetization Record Stores Long Distance Book Stores Research/Libraries Local Stores Classifieds Democratization African Mobile Growth: >1B by 2016 Moore’s Law – 5th Paradigm of Exponential Growth Calculations/Sec per $1000 computer The exponential growth of computing on a Logarithmic Plot Calc./second for a $1000 laptop vs. Time 2050 Calculations per Second per $1000 2023 2010 Year 2 6 Recent News… Technologies making the news: AI, Cloud Computing, Robotics, 3D Printing, Synthetic Biology “WATSON vanquishes human opponents” Artificial Intelligence Artificial Intelligence Infinite Computing •2,880 POWER7 processor cores; •16 Terabytes of RAM •200 million pages of content (Wikipedia) •Process 1 million books per second Paradigm Change: Robotics Willow Garage – Scott Hassan Robotics Paradigm Change: Robotics Google’s Autonomous Car Robotics Paradigm Change: Robotics 6 Prius 3 RX450h >300,000 miles Legal in: - Nevada - California - Florida Google’s Autonomous Car Robotics Light Detection And Ranging) Paradigm Change: Robotics LIDAR 64 lasers 10 RPM LIDAR: Light Detection & Ranging 1.3 mil datapoints or 750 Mbytes/second Google’s Autonomous Car Robotics Light Detection And Ranging) Know Anything – Anytime LEO Constellations Quad Copter Google Glass ~ .5m global resolution ~ 1 cm global resolution ~ 1 mm global resolution 5 Known Constellations Plummeting costs Including Skybox Solar Powered Paradigm Change: Robotics Telepresence Robots – today’s “Transporter” Robotics 3D Printer = The Star Trek Replicator Disrupting a $10 Trillion Manufacturing Industry 3D Printing 3D Printing Good Enough To Eat HOSPITALITY | EVENTS | STORE | HOME SOURCE: Fab@Home SOURCE:3DSYSTEMS PRODUCTS TO BUY ACCESSORIES | SHOES | TOYS | DOLLS SOURCE: GeoBeats Dolls: MakieLabs Safe Enough To Implant ORGANS | BONES | RESTORATIONS SOURCE: ExplainingTheFuture.com SOURCE: Wake Forest May 20, 2010 Market: 1st synthetic life FUEL & FOOD & VACCINES 1.1 million Basepairs Synthetic Biology Critical Insight… The only constant is change. And, the rate of change is increasing. 1st Conclusion: You either disrupt your own company, or someone else will. You must be constantly evolving your business. Standing still = death. 2nd Conclusion: If you’re dependent on innovation solely from inside your company, you will lose. Question: How will you do this? Exponential Technology Crowdsourcing Genius Crowdsourcing Genius • $10 Million purse • Privately funded teams • 3 person crew • 100 km altitude • Two flights within 2 weeks WINNING THE ANSARI X PRIZE • 26 Teams • From 7 Nations • Spending > $100 million ARCA Space Transport DaVinci Project Canadian Arrow Rocketplane Armadillo StarChaser Pablo DeLeon Scaled Composites Aerospace October 4th, 2004 Mojave Desert Image from Video OPENING A NEW ERA… > 10 Billion Media Impressions Worth in Excess of $120 Million VIDEO: Ansari X PRIZE (historical) History Was Made HALLMARKS OF AN X PRIZE COMPETITION • HIGHLY LEVERAGED: Typically 10 – 40x • EFFICIENT: only pays the winner • Sparks NEW INDUSTRY development • Non-traditional solutions $1B+ Industry start $100M Teams’ spend $2.5M – Start-up $10M - Purse St. Louis Ansari Family Board of Trustees & Benefactors Jim Cameron LARRY PAGE, RATAN TATA DR. CRAIG VENTER, Dr. ANOUSHEH ANSARI JAMES CAMERON CEO, Google Chairman of Tata Group Genetic Pioneer Astronaut & CEO Filmmaker and explorer Jim Gianopulos Wendy Schmidt DEAN KAMEN, RAY KURZWEIL ELON MUSK JIM GIANOPULOS WENDY SCHMIDT CEO, DEKA Research Inventor & Futurist CEO, Tesla & SpaceX Chairman/CEO, FOX Schmidt Family Fndtn Prize Groups Life Sciences Exploration Energy & Learning & Environment Global Dev. $10M HEALTHCARE IN THE PALM OF YOUR HAND… FUNDED BY THE QUALCOMM FOUNDATION Qualcomm Tricorder X PRIZE Team Distribution 25 from UK 2 from Sweden 2 from Denmark 2 from Russia 3 from Ireland 1 from Czech Rep. 16 from Canada 1 from Austria 5 from Germany 2 from Bulgaria 1 from Switzerland 2 from Georgia 115 from USA 1 from Portugal 2 from China 2 from Italy 4 from Singapore 1 from Turkey 1 from Kuwait 1 from Yemen 1 from Brazil 1 from Saudi Arabia 2 from Australia 1 from Argentina 20 from India 300+ TOTAL TEAMS 37 NATIONS Does it have to be a $10M purse? $1.4 million Target: 2x the 1,100 Gallon/Min $1.4 million • 350 pre-registered teams 7 of 10 finalists > 2x Improvement • 10 Finalists – head to head Top Team = 6x Improvement $1.4 million • 350 pre-registered teams 7 of 10 finalists > 2x Improvement • 10 Finalists – head to head • Target: 2x the 1,100 Gallon/Min Top Team = 6x Improvement Where is X PRIZE going next ? Global Software Competition -- Reading & Coding in 2 Years Health & Life Science X PRIZEs Alzheimer's Organo- Brain-Computer Disease Genesis Interface * Concept only - Purse need funding FORCE: Rising Billion Global Population GLOBAL POPULATION (BILLIONS) Internet Users 8,0 7,0 6,0 5,0 66% 4,0 3 BILLION 3,0 NEW MINDS 2,0 23% 1,0 6% 0,0 2000 2010 2020 What will 3 Billion New Minds… create discover consume desire invent …Tens of trillions of annual PP …Greatest period of Innovation (ever) Get a copy of my Briefing Slides Text: DELOITTE, FIRST NAME , & EMAIL to: +46-737-494-551 Exponential Tech Crowdsourcing Genius ABUNDANCE ABUNDANCE: The Future Is Better Than You Think # 1 on Amazon; #2 on New York Times We are heading towards a world of Abundance… Really? AMYGDALA ALL VISUAL INFORMATION ALL AUDIO INFORMATION AL ALUMINUM Au GOLD AG NAPOLEAN III SILVER THE KING OF SIAM ABUNDANCE: ENERGY Solar – Exponential Change SOLAR PANELS AVG. PRICE PER WATT ANNUAL PV PRODUCTION MWATTS $35 8.000 7.000 $30 6.000 $25 1975-2012 97.2% 5.000 $20 4.000 $15 3.000 $10 2012: 84¢ 2.000 $5 1.000 $0 0 1980 1990 2000 2010 1995 2000 2005 2010 Bloomberg New Energy Finance reported that the price of solar panels fell by almost 50 percent in 2011. They are now just one-quarter of what they were in 2008. Source: GTM Research ABUNDANCE: WATER Dean Kamen’s Slingshot… ‣$2,500 each ‣1000 liters/day ‣$0.02 per liter ‣5 Year Lifetime ‣100 watts of power ABUNDANCE: COMMUNICATIONS ABUNDANCE: HEALTH & EDUCATION FORCE: Rising Billion Global Population GLOBAL POPULATION (BILLIONS) Internet Users 8,0 7,0 6,0 5,0 66% 4,0 3 BILLION 3,0 NEW MINDS 2,0 23% 1,0 6% 0,0 2000 2010 2020 What will 3 Billion New Minds… create discover consume desire invent …Tens of trillions of annual PP …Greatest period of Innovation (ever) Get a copy of my Briefing Slides Text: DELOITTE, FIRST NAME , & EMAIL to: +46-737-494-551 THANK YOU Peter H. Diamandis, MD Copy of Slides Text your name & email: (310) 299-8772 Follow me: @PeterDiamandis www.Diamandis.com (Sign up for BOLD Blog) www.xprize.org www.SingularityU.org .