Canada’s Top Climate Change Risks The Expert Panel on Climate Change Risks and Adaptation Potential ASSESSING EVIDENCE INFORMING DECISIONS CANADA’S TOP CLIMATE CHANGE RISKS The Expert Panel on Climate Change Risks and Adaptation Potential ii Canada’s Top Climate Change Risks THE COUNCIL OF CANADIAN ACADEMIES 180 Elgin Street, Suite 1401, Ottawa, ON, Canada K2P 2K3 Notice: The project that is the subject of this report was undertaken with the approval of the Board of Directors of the Council of Canadian Academies (CCA). Board members are drawn from the Royal Society of Canada (RSC), the Canadian Academy of Engineering (CAE), and the Canadian Academy of Health Sciences (CAHS), as well as from the general public. The members of the expert panel responsible for the report were selected by the CCA for their special competencies and with regard for appropriate balance. This report was prepared for the Government of Canada in response to a request from the Treasury Board of Canada Secretariat. Any opinions, findings, or conclusions expressed in this publication are those of the authors, the Expert Panel on Climate Change Risks and Adaptation Potential and do not necessarily represent the views of their organizations of affiliation or employment, or the sponsoring organization, the Treasury Board of Canada Secretariat. Library and Archives Canada ISBN: 978-1-926522-67-8 (electronic book) 978-1-926522-66-1 (paperback) This report should be cited as: Council of Canadian Academies, 2019. Canada’s Top Climate Change Risks, Ottawa (ON): The Expert Panel on Climate Change Risks and Adaptation Potential, Council of Canadian Academies. Disclaimer: The internet data and information referenced in this report were correct, to the best of the CCA’s knowledge, at the time of publication. Due to the dynamic nature of the internet, resources that are free and publicly available may subsequently require a fee or restrict access, and the location of items may change as menus and webpages are reorganized. © 2019 Council of Canadian Academies Printed in Ottawa, Canada This assessment was made possible with the support of the Government of Canada. The Council of Canadian Academies iii The Council of Canadian Academies The Council of Canadian Academies (CCA) is an The Canadian Academy of Engineering (CAE) independent, not-for-profit organization that supports The CAE is the national institution through which Canada’s independent, science-based, authoritative expert assessments most distinguished and experienced engineers provide to inform public policy development in Canada. Led by strategic advice on matters of critical importance to Canada. a Board of Directors and advised by a Scientific Advisory The Academy is an independent, self-governing, and non- Committee, the CCA’s work encompasses a broad definition of profit organization established in 1987. Fellows are nominated science, incorporating the natural, social, and health sciences and elected by their peers in recognition of their distinguished as well as engineering and the humanities. CCA assessments achievements and career-long service to the engineering are conducted by independent, multidisciplinary panels of profession. Fellows of the Academy are committed to ensuring experts from across Canada and abroad. Assessments strive that Canada’s engineering expertise is applied to the benefit to identify emerging issues, gaps in knowledge, Canadian of all Canadians. strengths, and international trends and practices. Upon completion, assessments provide government decision-makers, The Canadian Academy of Health Sciences (CAHS) researchers, and stakeholders with high-quality information CAHS recognizes excellence in the health sciences by required to develop informed and innovative public policy. appointing Fellows based on their outstanding achievements in the academic health sciences in Canada and on their All CCA assessments undergo a formal peer review and are willingness to serve the Canadian public. The Academy published and made available to the public free of charge. provides timely, informed, and unbiased assessments of Assessments can be referred to the CCA by foundations, issues affecting the health of Canadians and recommends non-governmental organizations, the private sector, or any strategic, actionable solutions. Founded in 2004, CAHS level of government. appoints new Fellows on an annual basis. The organization is managed by a voluntary Board of Directors and a Board The CCA is also supported by its three founding Academies: Executive. The Royal Society of Canada (RSC) www.cca-reports.ca Founded in 1882, the RSC comprises the Academies of @cca_reports Arts, Humanities and Sciences, as well as Canada’s first national system of multidisciplinary recognition for the emerging generation of Canadian intellectual leadership: The College of New Scholars, Artists and Scientists. Its mission is to recognize scholarly, research, and artistic excellence, to advise governments and organizations, and to promote a culture of knowledge and innovation in Canada and with other national academies around the world. iv Canada’s Top Climate Change Risks The Expert Panel on Climate Change Risks and Adaptation Potential and Workshop Participants Under the guidance of its Scientific Advisory Committee, Board of Directors, and the Academies, the CCA assembled the Expert Panel to lead the design of the workshop, complete the necessary background research, and develop the report. The Panel directed the CCA in identifying the experts who participated in the workshop. Each expert was selected for his or her expertise, experience, and demonstrated leadership in fields relevant to this project. Expert Panel L. John Leggat, FCAE (Chair), Former Assistant Deputy Bronwyn Hancock, Associate Vice-President of Research Minister, Science and Technology, Department of National Development, Yukon College (Whitehorse, YT) Defence (Ottawa, ON) Deborah Harford, Executive Director, ACT (Adaptation Elizabeth Beale, Former President and CEO, Atlantic to Climate Change Team), Faculty of Environment, Simon Provinces Economic Council; Commissioner, Canada’s Fraser University (Burnaby, BC) Ecofiscal Commission; and Associate, Harris Centre for Paul Kovacs, Executive Director, Institute for Catastrophic Regional Policy, Memorial University of Newfoundland Loss Reduction, Western University (London, ON) (St. John’s, NL) Roger B. Street, Research Fellow, Environmental Change Pierre Gosselin, Consulting Physician, Institut national de Institute, University of Oxford (Oxford, United Kingdom) santé publique du Québec; Clinical Professor, Université Laval and Institut national de la recherche scientifique; Coordinator, Health Program, Ouranos; Director, WHO/ The CCA also recognizes the important contribution of PAHO Collaborating Centre on Environmental and Barry Smit, O. Ont., FRSC, Professor Emeritus, University Occupational Health at CHU de Québec-Université Laval of Guelph (Guelph, ON). (Quebéc, QC) Workshop Participants Trevor Bell, FRSC, University Research Professor, Department Deborah McGregor, Associate Professor, Osgoode Hall of Geography, Memorial University of Newfoundland Law School, York University (Toronto, ON) (St. John’s, NL) Tamsin Mills, Senior Sustainability Specialist, City of Alain Bourque, Executive Director, Ouranos (Montréal, QC) Vancouver (Vancouver, BC) Ian Burton, FRSC, Emeritus Professor, University of Toronto; Greg Paoli, Principal Risk Scientist and Chief Operating Independent Scholar and Consultant (Toronto, ON) Officer, Risk Sciences International, Inc. (Ottawa, ON) Ashlee Cunsolo, Director, Labrador Institute, Memorial Barry Smit, O. Ont., FRSC, Professor Emeritus, University University (Happy Valley-Goose Bay, NL) of Guelph (Guelph, ON) Darrel Danyluk, FCAE, President, D.J. Danyluk Consulting Rudiger Tscherning, Assistant Professor, Faculty of Law, Ltd. (Calgary, AB) University of Calgary (Calgary, AB) Ian de la Roche, Adjunct Professor, University of British Claudia Verno, Director, Climate Change and Catastrophic Columbia (Vancouver, BC) Risk Policy, Strategic Initiatives, Insurance Bureau of Canada (Toronto, ON) Jimena Eyzaguirre, Senior Climate Change Adaptation Specialist, ESSA Technologies Ltd. (Ottawa, ON) Elaine Wheaton, Climate Scientist and Adjunct Professor, University of Saskatchewan; Researcher Emeritus, Kathy Jacobs, Director, Center for Climate Adaptation Saskatchewan Research Council (Saskatoon, SK) Science and Solutions, University of Arizona (Tucson, AZ) Angie Woo, Lead, Climate Resilience & Adaptation, Fraser Ian Mauro, Principal, Richardson College for the Health (Vancouver, BC) Environment; Co-Director, Prairie Climate Centre, University of Winnipeg (Winnipeg, MB) Message from the Chair v Message from the Chair Recent reports point out that Canada is warming at a rate The Panel is of the view that assessments of this kind need roughly double that of the rest of the world. For northern to be conducted at regular intervals to track the evolution of parts of the country the warming trend is nearly three risks and to monitor the implementation and effectiveness times the world rate. Global greenhouse gas concentrations of adaptation measures. continue to increase spurred by global energy use which increased at a rate of 2.3% in 2018. The burning of fossil On behalf of the Panel members, I thank the CCA for fuels provided the energy for most of this increase. Global inviting us to participate in this assessment. The Panel was emissions will continue to rise, and Canada’s warming will