(A37952) (A37952) Expert Opinion on Petroleum Tanker Accidents and Malfunctions in Browning Entrance and Principe Channel: Potential Marine Effects on Gitxaała Traditional Lands and Waters of a Spill During Tanker Transport of Bitumen from the Northern Gateway Pipeline Project (NGP) Contributors: CJ Beegle-Krause B. Emmett M. Hammond J. Short R. Spies Editor: L. Beckmann Prepared for: JFK Law Corporation, Counsel to Gitxaała First Nation 340 – 1122 Mainland Street Vancouver, BC V6B 5L1 December 2011 (A37952) Table of Contents 1.0 Background, Purpose and Scope of Work.......................................................................1 2.0 Report Structure .................................................................................................................1 3.0 Nearshore Habitats, Biological Communities, and Key Marine Resources .................2 3.1 Overview ..................................................................................................................2 3.2 Nearshore Physical Features...................................................................................3 3.3 Nearshore Habitats ..................................................................................................5 3.4 Nearshore Habitat Types and Oil Residency...........................................................9 3.5 Potentially Affected Marine Resources ..................................................................12 3.6 Critique of the Application with Respect to Habitat Issues ....................................13 4.0 A Primer on Petroleum Composition, Fate, and Toxicology........................................15 4.1 Overview ................................................................................................................15 4.2 Saturated Hydrocarbons ........................................................................................16 4.3 Aromatic Hydrocarbons..........................................................................................18 4.4 Resins and Asphaltenes ........................................................................................20 4.5 Properties and Toxicity of Petroleum Products......................................................22 4.6 Implications of Composition on the Environmental Fate of Accidentally Released Petroleum Products ...............................................................................25 4.7 Composition and Properties of Alberta Oil Sands Bitumen ...................................27 4.8 Effects of Adulterants .............................................................................................29 4.9 Critique of the Application ......................................................................................30 5.0 Hydrocarbon Toxicology..................................................................................................32 5.1 Overview ................................................................................................................32 5.2 Exposure Routes....................................................................................................32 5.3 Toxicity ...................................................................................................................32 5.4 Timing of Toxic Effects...........................................................................................34 5.5 Lifestyle Stages and Toxic Effects .........................................................................35 5.6 Unknowns vs. Laboratory Findings........................................................................35 5.7 Secondary Ecological Consequences....................................................................36 5.8 Recovery of Ecological Function............................................................................36 5.9 Conclusions............................................................................................................38 5.10 Critique of the Application ......................................................................................38 6.0 Computer Modelling for Oil Spill Trajectory Analysis and Planning...........................39 6.1 Overview ................................................................................................................39 6.2 Trajectory Modelling of Individual Spills.................................................................39 (A37952) 6.3 Importance of Seasonal to Multi-Year Statistical Analysis.....................................47 6.4 The Difference Between, GNOME, TAP and Mass Balance Scenario Modelling ................................................................................................................48 6.5 Results ...................................................................................................................48 6.6 Alternative Spill Scenarios .....................................................................................73 6.7 Critique of the Application ......................................................................................82 7.0 Risk-based Impact Assessment......................................................................................85 7.1 Impact Assessment Method for Assessing Accidental Effects ..............................85 7.2 Basics of Risk Assessment ....................................................................................86 7.3 Using Risk Assessment in Environmental Impact Assessment.............................88 7.4 Judging the Adequacy of Emergency and Contingency Planning .........................90 7.5 How is Risk Determined?.......................................................................................91 7.6 What is an Acceptable Risk? .................................................................................92 7.7 Critique of the NGP Application: Deficiencies in the Risk Assessment Approach ................................................................................................................93 8.0 Expert Opinion on Consequences of Spill or Malfunction in Modelled Location .............................................................................................................................94 8.1 Overview ................................................................................................................94 8.2 Diluted Bitumen Spill Scenarios .............................................................................94 8.3 Habitats and Marine Resources affected by the Spill Scenarios ...........................97 8.4 Intertidal Resources .............................................................................................101 8.5 Subtidal Resources ..............................................................................................102 9.0 Conclusions ....................................................................................................................103 (A37952) LIST OF TABLES Table 1 Shore Types within the Study Area (from the BC ShoreZone dataset) ..................4 Table 2 Summary of Biological Community Composition of Nearshore Habitats within the study area..............................................................................................10 Table 3 Summary of oil residency by shore length in the study area.................................12 Table 4 Sunrise Sunset Calculations..................................................................................75 Table 5 Sunrise Sunset Calculations..................................................................................79 Table 6 Shore Types (from BC ShoreZone) on the outer coast of Dolphin/Goschen Islands (Boys Pt. to Joachim Point) subject to bitumen product fouling from either spill scenario 1 or 2.0 .................................................97 Table 7 Oil residency index (ORI) values for the outer coast of Dolphin/Goschen Islands (Boys Pt. to Joachim Point) subject to bitumen product fouling from either spill scenario 1 or 2.0 ..........................................................................98 Table 8 List of marine resources of importance to Gitxaala First Nation considered most vulnerable to oil spill impacts resulting from spill Scenarios 1 and 2..................................................................................................99 LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1 Gixtaala Nation Traditional Territory Figure 2 Study area used to describe habitats features and resources of concern to the Gitxaala Nation............................................................................................3 Figure 3 Exposed Rocky Nearshore Habitat .......................................................................6 Figure 4 Semi-Sheltered Rocky Habitat ..............................................................................7 Figure 5 Sand Beach Habitat...............................................................................................8 Figure 6 Oil Residency Index for shore areas within the study area (from BC ShoreZone data)..................................................................................................11 Figure 7 Documented herring spawning areas within the focus area (DFO and GeoBC)................................................................................................................15 Figure 8 Saturated Hydrocarbons (Alkanes) .....................................................................17 Figure 9 BTEX, Other Monocyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons and Naphthalenes ................19