EUROPEAN COMMISSION DG TREN SIXTH FRAMEWORK PROGRAMME THEMATIC PRIORITY 1.6 SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT, GLOBAL CHANGE & ECOSYSTEMS INTEGRATED PROJECT – CONTRACT N. TREN-06-FP6TR-SO7-69821 RETRACK REorganization of Transport networks by advanced RAil freight Concepts Deliverable no. 13.2 Title Potential for Eurasia land bridge corridors & logistics developments along the corridors Dissemination level Public Work Package WP 13 Author(s) Davydenko I., Landa Maxta I., Martens R., Nesterova N., Wark T. Co-author(s) Behrens R., Burgess A., Roggenkamp M., Roest Crollius A., Wagener N. Status (F: final, D: draft) F-23032012 File Name Project Start Date and May 2007 – July 2012 Duration TABLE OF CONTENTS 1 Introduction 11 1.1 Background information 11 1.2 Objective of Task 13.1 11 1.3 Outline of the report 12 2 Results of recent rail/intermodal transport R&D projects and pilot train runs between Europe and China 13 2.1 The recent rail transport projects and train pilots 13 2.2 International and regional corridor initiatives 14 2.2.1 CAREC rail corridors 14 2.2.2 NELTI 17 2.2.3 TRACECA 19 2.2.4 UNECE initiatives 22 2.3 Monitoring indices 26 2.3.1 CAREC Corridor Performance Monitoring 26 2.3.2 TRAX TRACECA 28 2.3.3 LPI the World Bank 30 2.4 Block train runs 33 2.4.1 Trans Eurasia – Express 33 2.4.2 East-Wind project 35 2.4.3 Kazakhstan vector 36 2.4.4 The Mongolian Vector 37 2.4.5 Other container train services 38 2.5 Study for the project of the integrated logistics system and marketing action plan for container transportation (Kazakhstan) 39 2.6 Summary of the recent R&D projects and pilot train runs 44 3 Overview of the RETRACK – China connections 46 3.1 Selection of main rail land bridges connecting Europe and China 46 3.2 Connections of the RETRACK corridor with the TransSib, Central and TRACECA corridors 47 3.3 Identification of RETRACK – TransSib – China rail corridor and routes 50 3.3.1 Main routes and corresponding corridor organisation 50 3.3.2 Interconnection option: RETRACK – Duisburg - TransSib 51 3.3.3 Interconnection option: RETRACK – Bratislava - Moscow - TransSib 53 3.3.4 Interconnection option: RETRACK – Budapest – Moscow - TransSib 55 3.4 Identification of RETRACK – Central Kazakhstan - China rail corridor and routes 56 3.4.1 Main routes and corresponding corridor organisation 57 3.4.2 Interconnection option: RETRACK – Bratislava – Aksaralskaya II – Central corridor 58 3.4.3 Interconnection option: RETRACK – Budapest – Aksaralskaya II – Central corridor 59 3.4.4 Interconnection option: RETRACK – Bucharest – Aksaralskaya II – Central corridor 60 3.5 Identification of RETRACK – TRACECA – China rail corridors and routes 62 3.5.1 Main routes and corresponding corridor organisation 62 3.5.2 Interconnection option: RETRACK – Bucharest – Varna – Poti - TRACECA 63 3.5.3 Interconnection option: RETRACK – Budapest (/Bratislava) –Sofia - Varna – Poti - TRACECA 65 3.5.4 Interconnection option: RETRACK – Budapest (/Bratislava) – Sofia – Ankara – Tbilisi – TRACECA 66 Potential for Eurasia land bridge corridors and logistics developments along the corridors 2 3.6 Final destinations within China 68 3.6.1 Destination: Zabaykalsk - Beijing 68 3.6.2 Destination: Zabaykalsk – Lanzhou 69 3.6.3 Destination : Dostyk– Lanzhou 70 3.6.4 Destination: Zamin Uud – Lanzhou 71 3.7 Summary of the RETRACK – China rail corridors and interconnection routes 72 4 Railway infrastructure and institutional framework in the countries involved in the TransSib, Central and TRACECA corridors 76 4.1 Railway infrastructure and rolling stock characteristics 76 4.2 Institutional framework and railway liberalisation process 82 4.3 Multilateral and bilateral agreements in the region 84 4.4 Summary of the infrastructure condition and institutional framework of the railway transport in the countries involved in the corridors 89 5 Trans-Siberian corridor 90 5.1 Organisational model of the corridor 90 5.2 Infrastructure assessment of the TransSib corridor 92 5.2.1 Technical and operational characteristics of the main route of Trans-Siberian Railway 93 5.2.2 Technical and operational characteristics of the TransSib – Trans Kazakh route 96 5.2.3 Technical and operational characteristics of the TransSib – Mongolian route 98 5.2.4 Technical and operational characteristics of the TransSib – Manchurian route 99 5.3 Strength and weaknesses: what potential clients thinks 101 5.3.1 Supply Chain Requirements for TransSib rail corridor 101 5.3.2 Major risks along the corridors 111 5.4 Operational and technical barriers along the TransSib corridor 114 5.4.1 Technical barriers 114 5.4.2 Operational barriers 114 5.5 Summary of the TransSib corridor potential for RETRACK 116 6 The Central Corridor 119 6.1 Organisational model of the corridor 119 6.2 Infrastructure assessment of the Central corridor 122 6.2.1 Technical and operational characteristics of the Central corridor 122 6.2.2 Main terminals on the route 124 6.3 Strength and weaknesses: what potential clients thinks 126 6.3.1 Supply Chain Requirements for the Central corridor 126 6.3.2 Major risks along the corridor 134 6.4 Operational and technical barriers along the Central corridor 135 6.4.1 Technical barriers 135 6.4.2 Operational barriers 135 6.5 Summary of the Central corridor potential for RETRACK 137 7 TRACECA corridor 139 7.1 Organisational model of the corridor 139 7.2 Infrastructure assessment of the TRACECA corridor 140 7.2.1 Technical and operational characteristics of the TRACECA – Turkmenbashi route 140 7.2.2 Technical and operational characteristics of the TRACECA – Aktau route 147 Potential for Eurasia land bridge corridors and logistics developments along the corridors 3 7.3 Strength and weaknesses: what potential clients thinks 149 7.3.1 Supply Chain Requirements for TRACECA rail corridor 149 7.3.2 Major risks along the corridor 157 7.4 Operational and tehchnical barriers along the TRACECA corridor 158 7.4.1 Technical barriers 158 7.4.2 Operational barriers 158 7.5 Summary of the TRACECA corridor potential for RETRACK 165 8 Opportunities for the rail land bridges between Europe and China 168 8.1 Assessment method 169 8.2 Main assumptions 172 8.2.1 General model assumptions 172 8.2.2 Estimation 2010: main assumptions and parameters 173 8.2.3 Scenario 2020: main assumptions and parameters 174 8.3 Results - economic potential of the routes 175 8.3.1 TransSib – Manchurian route 176 8.3.2 TransSib – Trans Kazakh route 179 8.3.3 TRACECA – Turkmenbashi route 181 8.3.4 Central corridor 183 8.3.5 All corridors are competing 185 8.4 Summary and conclusion on the economic potential of the Europe – China rail corridors 188 9 Comparative analysis of the linking RETRACK with China through Trans-Siberian, Central-Kazakhstan and TRACECA rail corridors. 190 9.1 Connection of the North of RETRACK with China 190 9.1.1 Comparison of technical characteristics and barriers 190 9.1.2 Comparison of the operational characteristics 192 9.2 Connection of the South of RETRACK with China 195 9.2.1 Comparison of the technical characteristics and barriers 195 9.2.2 Comparison of the operational characteristics 197 9.3 Summary 199 10 Conclusions 201 Bibliographie 209 ANNEX 1 Overview of the R&D initiatives and its member countries 209 ANNEX 2 Comparison of spped on CAREC rail and road corridors 209 ANNEX 3 LPI Assessments 209 ANNEX 4 Companies on the Russian freight rail market 216 ANNEX 5 RZD rail directorates along the routes using TransSib rail corridor 218 ANNEX 6 Interogated companies and operators along TransSib rail corridor 220 Potential for Eurasia land bridge corridors and logistics developments along the corridors 4 TABLES Table 1: BCP and major time costing activities (in hours) for rail and road transport 28 Table 2: TRAX General Index 29 Table 3: TRAX Stretch Index 29 Table 4: TRAX Node Index 30 Table 5: LPI International (1 is best and 5 is worst) 31 Table 6: Overview of services of public and private trains by Trans Eurasia Express 34 Table 7: Container block train runs in Russia, Central Asia, China 38 Table 8: Analysis overview of competing routes for the corridor West Europe-Coastal China 43 Table 9: Analysis overview of competing routes for the corridor West Europe-Inland China 43 Table 10: RETRACK – TransSib connection via Germany, Poland and Belarus 51 Table 11: RETRACK – TransSib connection via Slovakia, Ukraine and Russia 53 Table 12: RETRACK – TransSib connection via Hungary, Ukraine and Russia 55 Table 13: RETRACK – Central corridor connection via Slovakia, Ukraine and Russia 58 Table 14: RETRACK – Central corridor connection via Hungary, Ukraine and Russia 59 Table 15: RETRACK – Central corridor connection via Romania, Moldova, Ukraine and Russia 60 Table 16: RETRACK – TRACECA connection via Romania and Bulgaria 64 Table 17: RETRACK – TRACECA connection via Hungary, Serbia, Bulgaria 65 Table 18: RETRACK – Central corridor connection via Hungary, Serbia, Bulgaria and Turkey 67 Table 19: Destination: Zabaïkalsk – Beijing 68 Table 20: Destination: Zabaykalsk – Lanzhou 69 Table 21: Destination: Dostyk – Lanzhou 70 Table 22: Destination: Zamyn Uud – Lanzhou 71 Table 23: Comparison of interconnection possibilities for RETRACK – TransSib corridor 73 Table 24: Comparison of interconnection possibilities for RETRACK – Central corridor 74 Table 25: Comparison of interconnection possibilities for RETRACK – TRACECA corridor 74 Table 26: Principal Market players in container transport via Transsiberian corridor 91 Table 27: Length of the TransSib corridor sections up to the Russian border 94 Table 28: Characteristics of the