UNLocK Report 15 Human Insecurity in Nigeria October 2011 - April 2012 The Fund for Peace is an independent, nonpartisan, 501(c)(3) non-profit research and educational organization that works to prevent violent conflict and promote sustainable security. We promote sustainable security through research, training and education, engagement of civil society, building bridges across diverse sectors, and developing innovative technologies and tools for 55th Anniversary 1957-2012 policy makers. A leader in the conflict assessment and early warning field, the Fund for Peace focuses on the problems of weak and failing states. Our objective is to create practical tools and approaches for conflict mitigation that are useful to decision-makers. Copyright © 2012 The Fund for Peace. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without prior written consent from The Fund for Peace. The Fund for Peace Conflict Early Warning and Assessment Produced with the assistance of The Institute of Human Rights and Humanitarian Law UNLocK Reports Series Editor Nate Haken Report Written by Natalie Manning Megan Turner Amelia Whitehead The Fund for Peace Publication FFP : CUNGR1212 (Version 07C) Circulation: PUBLIC The Fund for Peace 1720 I Street NW 7th Floor Washington, D.C. 20006 T: +1 202 223 7940 F: +1 202 223 7947 www.fundforpeace.org www.fundforpeace.org 2 The Fund for Peace UNLocK Nigeria Overview Introduction & Contents This report was compiled by Natalie conflict assessment and early warning Summary 4 Manning, Amelia Whitehead, and Megan methodology. The program, Conflict Early Methodology 5 Turner under the supervision of Nate Haken, Warning and Assessment, is made possible Senior Associate at The Fund for Peace. with funding from the National Endowment Analysis by Select Indicators 6 UNLocK partners with local civil society in for Democracy. The statements and views State-by-State Analysis 11 conflict-affected regions for better conflict expressed are solely the responsibility of The Timeline 14 early warning, assessment and prevention by Fund for Peace. Looking Ahead 15 integrating local knowledge into CAST, FFP’s About The Fund for Peace 16 Comparative Periodic Analysis Percentage of Reports by Indicator 40 March 2011 - September 2011 vs. October 2011 - April 2012 March 2011 - September October 2011 - April 2012 32 Numbers represent a percentage of documents by period. 24 Uneven Economic Development Human Rights and Rule Lawof Demographic Pressures State State Legitimacy Human Flight and Brain Factionalized Elites Economic Pressures Group Group Grievance Security Security Apparatus 16 Public Services External Intervention Refugees and IDPs 8 0 www.fundforpeace.org 3 The Fund for Peace UNLocK Nigeria Summary and Findings October 2011 - April 2012 As Goodluck Jonathan begins his new from October 2011 to April 2012, with a relating to the Security Apparatus and State term as President of Nigeria, he faces many particular focus on the state and local Legitimacy were less frequently reported in challenges. Even as a fragile peace takes government area levels of Rivers, Akwa Ibom, this period than were reported in the hold in the Niger Delta, gang violence and Delta and Kaduna. previous election and post-election period. criminality continue unabated. In the North, Pressures associated with Public Services and Boko Haram, an Islamist terrorist group, Incidents and issues summarized here Human Rights, however, have been more continues to wreak havoc. Though the include election irregularities surrounding frequently reported in this time period than government has taken some steps towards gubernatorial elections, such as political in the previous, as a percentage of the total strengthening the democratic process, corruption and intimidation, as well as social number of incidents. instances of corruption and vote rigging have and economic pressures relating to land been reported at the state and local levels competition, group grievance and violent This report does not presume to be over the past seven months. The Nigerian crime. These incidents and issues are comprehensive or evenly distributed from government, civil society, and other categorized according to the Conflict one indicator or location to another. Rather, it stakeholders must take steps to address Assessment System Tool (CAST) framework, provides a glimpse into the concerns and these governance and security issues, or risk which allows for a holistic evaluation of the perspectives of a particular network of civil further instability in the future. pressures on society and the state that could society organizations, trained in conflict increase the risk of instability. assessment, most of which are based in the This report compiles the incidents and issues Niger Delta region, Kaduna, and Lagos. documented by civil society representatives As is evident from the comparative periodic in the UNLocK Nigeria early warning network analysis on the previous page, pressures Findings This is the fifth summary report for State Legitimacy (34 reports), Public Services The majority of participating organizations UNLocK Nigeria. This report covers incidents (27 reports), Security Apparatus (26 reports), focus on human and civil rights, which logged during a seven month period (October Group Grievance (9 reports), Factionalized influences the types of reports that they 1 2011 – April 1 2012) by participating civil Elites (8 reports), Demographic Pressure (8 contribute. This summary therefore provides society organizations. It is organized by reports), Poverty and Economic Decline (7 a rich description of the political and socio- indicator, with maps showing affected states reports), Human Flight (3 reports) and Uneven economic climate in these areas over the last and local government areas. Economic Development (2 reports). 7 months, as seen by a specific network of civil society organizations focused in the Broken down by indicator and state, there Geographically, the vast majority of reports Niger Delta region. were 101 reports logged during this period. came from the South-South geopolitical zone, Of the 12 CAST indicators (see page 3 for a followed by the South-West and the North- list of the indicators), reports relating to West zones, in order of frequency. Most of Human Rights were the most prevalent (41 the participating organizations are based in reports), followed by those pertaining to the South-South. www.fundforpeace.org 4 The Fund for Peace UNLocK Nigeria Methodology About the Program Between October 2011 and April region so far), and facilitating communication A Focus on Rivers, Akwa Ibom, Delta 2012, The Fund for Peace and the Institute between members of the network for the and Kaduna States for Human Rights and Humanitarian Law held purposes of data processing and analysis. three UNLocK workshops in Port Harcourt, This information can be used for the crafting This report focuses on the Akwa Ibom, Rivers, which were attended by representatives from of conflict-sensitive approaches to Delta, and Kaduna states between the dozens of local civil society organizations. development, as well as policies for medium- months of October 2011 and April 2012. During these workshops, participants to long-term conflict mitigation initiatives. Reports from Akwa Ibom mostly dealt with reviewed and contextualized CAST (FFP’s election irregularities and the intimidation of conflict assessment framework) to make it Since the UNLocK early warning system was political opposition during the gubernatorial relevant to the local conflict landscape. first established in Nigeria in 2007, over 766 election. Reports from Rivers State related to Members contribute incident reports to the incident reports (categorized by indicator and abductions, police corruption and sexual UNLocK database on an ongoing basis. by state) have been entered into the violence. Reports from Delta State database. The data generated by the pertained mainly to robbery and violent The goals of the project include fostering a participants has been saved on a password- crime. The majority of reports from Kaduna civil society-led conflict early warning and protected website, which is accessible to State related to non-state armed militias. prevention process, documenting events and participants for their own analysis and for the Pages 10-13 provide a breakdown of the incidents, gathering data from across the corroboration of details to ensure accuracy. data from those four states. country (with an emphasis on the Niger Delta Indicators The 12 CAST indicators for which data is sought include social, economic, and political/military pressures on the state: Social Economic Political/Military Demographic Pressures Uneven Development Legitimacy of the State Refugees or Displaced Persons Economy Public Services Group Grievance Human Rights Human Flight/Brain Drain Security Apparatus Factionalized Elites External Intervention www.fundforpeace.org 5 The Fund for Peace Analysis Select Indicators Reported Demographic Pressures Nigeria Nigerian law grants the Governors of • A similar issue is faced by the Omunobo each State significant control over land community in Rivers State, as their land administration, which has contributed has reportedly been compulsorily acquired to several conflicts between local inhabitants by the state for the construction of a and government officials. Incidents have highway linking Port Harcourt to the included cases where the state has claimed international